By Guy Page

A new statewide poll suggests Vermont may be facing a growing “brain drain,” with nearly two-thirds of young adults saying they are likely to leave the state within the next five years, driven largely by high housing costs and the overall cost of living.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Green Mountain State Poll found that 64% of Vermonters ages 18 to 34 are very or somewhat likely to move out of the state within the next five years, compared with just 24% of residents age 65 and older. Six in 10 young adults also said they definitely or probably want to leave Vermont, while only 17% of seniors said the same.

The dilemma facing Vermont young people – stay and struggle to own a home, or move to clearly greener pastures – was highlighted during a recent WVMT Chronicle Conversations discussion Friday, July 10 [13:30 mark] between twenty-somethings Kolby LaMarche, editor of the Burlington Daily News, and Javen Sears, Chittenden County candidate for Vermont Senate:

As young people, we’re getting maxed out of the market, we won’t be able to own a home until we’re 25,” Sears said.

“That’s a joke,” he added.

“Not necessarily,” LaMarche said, as they both laughed with apparent gallows humor. 

The UNH poll findings come as Vermonters of all ages – but especially young people – express growing frustration over affordability. Just 13% of respondents described Vermont as an affordable place to live, while 86% said it is not very or not at all affordable. Forty-two percent of all Vermonters said they are likely to move out of state within five years, up from 34% in 2024.

Among residents considering leaving, 61% cited cheaper housing or a lower cost of living as a major reason, making it the most frequently mentioned factor. Lower taxes ranked second at 50%, followed by seeking a different political or social environment at 36%. Other reasons included a desire for new adventures, different weather, retirement, employment opportunities and moving closer to family.

The poll also found declining satisfaction with life in Vermont. Sixty-two percent rated the state as a very good or good place to live, down from 71% a year earlier. Among adults ages 18 to 34, fewer than half — 45% — described Vermont as a good or very good place to live.

If forced to relocate, respondents most commonly chose another New England state as their destination, with New Hampshire the single most frequently named state, followed by Maine, Florida and Massachusetts.