At odds with last week’s UNH poll showing Janoo leads Scott in race for governor

Vermont Public poll (top), released Sunday AM, shows Republican incumbent Gov. Phil Scott leading Democrat nominee Amanda Janoo by 10 points. As shown in a Janoo campaign graphic (bottom), a UNH poll released last week shows Janoo leading by six points. Pollsters say the difference is likely due to methodology, not timing.

By Guy Page

A new Vermont Public poll released Monday, Sept. 28, puts Republican Gov. Phil Scott 10 percentage points ahead of Democratic/Progressive challenger Amanda Janoo — a sharp contrast with a University of New Hampshire poll released last week that showed Janoo leading Scott by six points.

The conflicting surveys offer very different snapshots of the governor’s race with about five weeks remaining before the Nov. 3 election.

The Vermont Public survey found Scott leading Janoo 42%-32% among all respondents, with 20% undecided. Among likely voters, Scott led 44%-34%, while 16% were undecided.

The Vermont Public poll surveyed 817 Vermonters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The likely-voter sample included 732 respondents. Interviews were conducted from Sept. 10 through Sept. 21 using cellphone and landline calls and text-to-web surveys.

Among the full sample, 3% chose none, a write-in or another candidate; independent Brian Judd received 2%; Freedom and Unity candidate Dean Roy received 1%; and Peace and Justice candidate June Goodband registered at less than 1%.

Those numbers differ sharply from the Green Mountain State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and released last week. That survey showed Janoo at 49% and Scott at 43%, a six-point Janoo advantage. The UNH poll surveyed 835 people from Sept. 17-21 and reported a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

Janoo’s campaign made much of the UNH poll: “This poll reflects what we’ve been hearing on the ground every day, but we know we still have a long way to go to November 3rd. I’m so grateful for the ways that Vermonters have been showing up and offering their time, passion and resources to get us here. Vermonters are tired of a status quo that’s failing us. They’re tired of managed decline for our state. They’re looking for hope and leadership that believes in Vermont.”

The Janoo campaign Facebook page, however, has not mentioned the Vermont Public poll.

Scott’s social media has been as yet silent on both polls, but Campaign Manager Dustin Degree said the UNH poll over-represented Democrats in its pollees, according to a Seven Days news story. He called the poll a misleading “outlier,” arguing that its sample included too many Democrats: 508 Democrats, 258 Republicans and 78 independents. Scott received 89% support from Republicans and 53% from independents, while Janoo received 73% from Democrats. Middlebury College political science professor Bert Johnson defended the methodology, telling Seven Days that the poll appeared “honestly conducted.” He said Vermont has substantially more Democratic than Republican voters, so a representative statewide poll would be expected to include more Democrats.

The two polls therefore differ by 16 percentage points in their measure of the margin between the two leading candidates: Vermont Public has Scott ahead by 10, while UNH had Janoo ahead by six. One pollster interviewed said the differences in the two polls likely reflect differences in methodology, not in poll timing.

Vermont Public found Democratic former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray leading Republican incumbent Lt. Gov. John Rodgers 43%-35%, with 19% undecided. Gray led among independents 39%-32%, according to the poll.

The UNH poll also showed Gray ahead, but by a wider margin: 54%-40%.