By Guy Page
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amanda Janoo and Republican Gov. Phil Scott are in a statistical tie among likely Vermont voters, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll that shows a sharp partisan divide in the race.
The Green Mountain State Poll, released Sept. 24 by the UNH Survey Center, found 49% of likely voters supporting Janoo and 43% supporting Scott. Independent Brian Judd received 2%, while 6% were undecided. Because Janoo’s six-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, the Survey Center characterized the race as a statistical tie.
The poll represents a change from earlier in the campaign, when Scott, seeking a sixth term, held an advantage over potential Democratic challengers. UNH reported in June that Scott led prospective Democratic opponents, although his job approval had fallen to what was then a new low.
The September poll shows voters breaking along party lines. Among Republicans, 89% supported Scott, while 2% backed Janoo. Among Democrats, 73% supported Janoo and 20% Scott.
Scott maintained an advantage among independents, with 53% supporting the governor and 40% backing Janoo.
Janoo also registered stronger favorability numbers among likely voters. Forty-four percent viewed her favorably and 22% unfavorably, while 27% said they did not know enough about her to offer an opinion.
Scott was viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 36%, with 20% neutral.
The same poll examined Vermont’s other statewide races and several policy questions. UNH reported that Democrat Molly Gray led Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint held a substantial advantage in her reelection contest. The poll also found support for both proposed constitutional amendments appearing on the November ballot.
On other state issues, a majority of respondents supported a tax on second homes, while a plurality supported Scott’s proposal to consolidate school districts with the possibility that some schools could close. Respondents were divided over overdose-prevention centers such as the planned facility in Burlington.
The Green Mountain State Poll is conducted by the UNH Survey Center using a probability-based web panel of Vermont residents recruited through random sampling.
Feature photo – Amanda Janoo at August primary celebration after winning Democratic nomination for governor.
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Categories: politics
Do not trust the polls…
I agree, do not trust the polls.
HOWEVER…conservatives in Vermont, especially those affiliated with the Rural Vermont Rising group, need to be prepared for the strong possibility that the sheer numbers of urban Chittenden County liberal and progressive voters will overwhelm what is happening in the rest of Vermont. There’s no question that RVR accomplished a miracle with respect to amendments to Act 181 a few months ago. They deserve credit for what they did. But I fear RVR may be overestimating their political clout.
The likes of Amanda Janoo and Molly Gray are working hard to do damage control and ingratiate themselves with at least a portion of the RVR audience. Appearing on WVMT and WDEV talk shows, and turning up at Tunbridge Fair with some semi-conciliatory words to rural interests is the surest sign of their efforts to shore up their support. It is smart politics on their part, and some voters absolutely WILL be fooled by that kind of campaign talk.
Add to the mix that Gov. Scott’s political “shelf life” is fast approaching its expiration date (as would happen to nearly any candidate for Governor in any state attempting to win 5 reelections)…and you have a recipe for a hugely disappointing outcome in November for RVR supporters.
Imagine waking up the day after the election and discovering that the Supermajority legislature is back, only this time with a new Governor in place eager to affix her signature to every costly tax increase initiative that the 2027 leaders under the statehouse dome might pass. It’s a nightmare scenario for the future of an affordable Vermont, but it really could come to pass. Honestly, I think the odds are 60/40 that it will happen. I hope I am wrong.