By Guy Page
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amanda Janoo and Republican Gov. Phil Scott are in a statistical tie among likely Vermont voters, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll that shows a sharp partisan divide in the race.
The Green Mountain State Poll, released Sept. 24 by the UNH Survey Center, found 49% of likely voters supporting Janoo and 43% supporting Scott. Independent Brian Judd received 2%, while 6% were undecided. Because Janoo’s six-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, the Survey Center characterized the race as a statistical tie.
The poll represents a change from earlier in the campaign, when Scott, seeking a sixth term, held an advantage over potential Democratic challengers. UNH reported in June that Scott led prospective Democratic opponents, although his job approval had fallen to what was then a new low.
The September poll shows voters breaking along party lines. Among Republicans, 89% supported Scott, while 2% backed Janoo. Among Democrats, 73% supported Janoo and 20% Scott.
Scott maintained an advantage among independents, with 53% supporting the governor and 40% backing Janoo.
Janoo also registered stronger favorability numbers among likely voters. Forty-four percent viewed her favorably and 22% unfavorably, while 27% said they did not know enough about her to offer an opinion.
Scott was viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 36%, with 20% neutral.
The same poll examined Vermont’s other statewide races and several policy questions. UNH reported that Democrat Molly Gray led Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint held a substantial advantage in her reelection contest. The poll also found support for both proposed constitutional amendments appearing on the November ballot.
On other state issues, a majority of respondents supported a tax on second homes, while a plurality supported Scott’s proposal to consolidate school districts with the possibility that some schools could close. Respondents were divided over overdose-prevention centers such as the planned facility in Burlington.
The Green Mountain State Poll is conducted by the UNH Survey Center using a probability-based web panel of Vermont residents recruited through random sampling.
Feature photo – Amanda Janoo at August primary celebration after winning Democratic nomination for governor.
Discover more from Vermont Daily Chronicle
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Categories: politics
Do not trust the polls…
Polls are supposed to gauge public opinion. Democrats use them to manipulate public opinion.
I agree, do not trust the polls.
HOWEVER…conservatives in Vermont, especially those affiliated with the Rural Vermont Rising group, need to be prepared for the strong possibility that the sheer numbers of urban Chittenden County liberal and progressive voters will overwhelm what is happening in the rest of Vermont. There’s no question that RVR accomplished a miracle with respect to amendments to Act 181 a few months ago. They deserve credit for what they did. But I fear RVR may be overestimating their political clout.
The likes of Amanda Janoo and Molly Gray are working hard to do damage control and ingratiate themselves with at least a portion of the RVR audience. Appearing on WVMT and WDEV talk shows, and turning up at Tunbridge Fair with some semi-conciliatory words to rural interests is the surest sign of their efforts to shore up their support. It is smart politics on their part, and some voters absolutely WILL be fooled by that kind of campaign talk.
Add to the mix that Gov. Scott’s political “shelf life” is fast approaching its expiration date (as would happen to nearly any candidate for Governor in any state attempting to win 5 reelections)…and you have a recipe for a hugely disappointing outcome in November for RVR supporters.
Imagine waking up the day after the election and discovering that the Supermajority legislature is back, only this time with a new Governor in place eager to affix her signature to every costly tax increase initiative that the 2027 leaders under the statehouse dome might pass. It’s a nightmare scenario for the future of an affordable Vermont, but it really could come to pass. Honestly, I think the odds are 60/40 that it will happen. I hope I am wrong.
Perhaps it is time for the NEK to sucede from Vermont and become part of NH.
I hope people are not packing their bags before they vote! It is hard to believe things could get any worse in Vermont. If these people (Jamoo and Gray) get in the entire state is total toast. Janoo has never run for office until now..??.. love him or hate him Governor Scott has spent years in office serving all Vermonters and has made headlines repeatedly as the most popular governor in the country. Tells us he must be doing something right.
Scott was a useful kabuki republican foil for the D supermajority. Now that the supermajority is gone, the psychos need the governor’s mansion. Mooove it on over, Phil.
I am a political pro….and I do not trust this poll – D Morrisseau W Pawlet, VT
This UNH poll queried likely voters in a biased ratio. D&I voters comprised 69% of responses, 31% R.
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2005&context=survey_center_polls
Pg. 9 shows methodology.
We have to begin a State wide discussion on how the past G.A. 20 years has gotten us to where we are.
We have a suggestion. All of us should reach out to the Front Porch Forum and post your own comments about how we voters are being taken for granted as know-nothings; even cave dwellers and start talking about changing the makeup of the General Assembly to then have a bi-partisan legislature;
That will bring fairness and transparency to law-making when the legislative procedures are today run only by Democrat Majorities in the House and Senate. That fairness can only come about when we have a Senate Republican Majority. It will be the check and balance we desperately need to protect the interest of nearly 18,000 members.
Email to family/friends in other counties and ask them to post their opinions about land rights infringement, budget increases,on and on.
Vermont’s 2015 budget was 5.5 billion. The SFY2025 budget was $8.57 billion; a $3.1 billion increase while population grew only 19 thousand. Democrats controlled the State House and Senate during that time.
The Majority wrote, passed and overrode the Governor’s veto of The Global Warming Solutions Act and created the Climate Council that advocated for the defeated Clean Heat Standard written to “save the planet”. It ignored the fact our forests sequester about 6.1 million tons of CO2 annually of our 8 million tons emitted.
Then there is the State education budget. In 2015, it was $1.5 billion and increased in 2025 to $2.323 billion while enrollment went from 87,311 to 81,398 (a decline of 5,913 students). Per-student expenditure went from 2015’s $17,188 to $28,543 last year.
Executive Branch employees, in 2015, totaled 7,607 and increased to 7,842 last year. Total compensation went from $652 million to $1.05 billion and average comp went from $85,728 to $134,121.
• Act 181 of 2024 revived a form of Act 250 road restriction that Vermont had eliminated in 2001. Before the Road Rule could take effect in July 2026, the General Assembly reversed course and repealed it through S.325 (Act 152).
What’s wrong with this picture? There was no legislative check or balance in our State legislature and in the troubling bills they enacted.
Front Porch Forum can host the statewide discussion on how to bring balance — sanity to our Capitol.
Several folks who read VDC can’t reach out to FPF because they have been banned.
Front Porch Forum would first have to bring balance and sanity to its own platform before purporting to host anything.
been banned from FPF since ‘21, it’s ok to say “I’m ANTIFA”, BLM or any other progressive movement, but if you speak against them, you’re toast, I don’t miss FPF, my wife tells me all the ridiculous stuff she’s sees posted, try Back Porch.
This is Vermont reporting fake, and false news because they want you to believe the Democrats are going to vote for Democrats. Stop voting for these communists. Democrats have destroyed the state of Vermont. Stop voting for people that think there’s more than Two sexes and that it’s OK for your son to play in women’s sports. Because of the Democrats we have the highest crime rate and release rate of criminals. This is democratic news reporting that this is fake and neither one of these Democrats are in the lead.
They polled 800 out of 500,000 voters? Most likely in Chittenden County.
Janoo signs all over Windham Co. No Scott signs.
The south wind pollinates from Northampton and Greenfield.
Sorry, but this is going to be ugly.
Chittenden, County, which contains the largest voting block of Vermont citizens. You could take all the NEK against one town; South Burlington would perhaps have more political clout.
This one town that is siphoning money out of the teacher’s fund, education fund for all their TIFF and CHIP projects, that is building a multi-million-dollar special bike bridge, because while the live in a city, they don’t want to bike in reality, but on a special bridge built for pedal bikes.
Making a wider bike path over the current bridge would just not be satisfactory, they need something extra special.
You see, some pigs are more equal than other pigs.
South Burlington is really more equal than everybody else.
I will not be propagandized into not voting.
I know more people that complain about the government and don’t vote then those that do vote. Im convinced Vermont is still a conservative majority state, the problem is voting has become something all too many view as a holiday liberals celebrate and partake in, not working class conservatives. If we all voted, we would win. Vote. It’s your civic duty. Offer to take your friends and neighbors.
Yes vote. If you complain and don’t vote – you are voting for them! Dems and progs have RUINED this state and especially Burlington! VOTE!