By Guy Page

Bennington, Lamoille and Windsor counties are among 484 counties nationwide identified by a Washington, D.C.-based immigration policy organization as suitable locations for new immigrants, based on labor shortages, available housing, cost of living and aging populations.

The three Vermont counties appear in a November 20, 2025 report by the Niskanen Center titled “Mapping America’s Immigration Needs: A County-Level Model for Matching Migrants to Local Economies.” 

Niskanen, funded in part by leftist philanthropist George Soros’ Open Society not-for-profit, in its own reports states that it is working as a subcontractor to the federally-funded Welcoming Initiatives for Newcomers (WIN), White House correspondent Natalie Winters reports. 

The Niskanen report identifies communities where researchers believe immigration could help fill vacant jobs, offset population aging and support local economic growth. Vermont, with its aging population and workforce shortage, had three counties selected as likely candidates for needing an infusion of migrant workers. 

The Niskanen recommendations are just that. Any decisions to place migrants in the three Vermont counties would be made much higher up the federal government food chain, and presumably would need permission, or at least cooperation, by state officials. 

The findings come as the federal Department of Health and Human Services’ WIN program moves toward a new refugee resettlement framework that would give states greater influence over where refugees are placed.

On December 30, 2025, HHS announced plans to award up to $1 million to the San Diego-based WIN to assess the nation’s capacity for refugee resettlement. The federal project calls for evaluating housing, workforce needs, schools and social services, with the goal of producing a nationwide readiness map and recommendations for future refugee placement. WIN’s work was scheduled to be completed on September 29.

Vermont Governor Phil Scott on October 2 asked the Trump administration by letter to raise the state’s federally-imposed cap of immigrant resettlement by 100. Scott wrote: “Refugees have become great neighbors, colleagues and members of our communities and they’re making important contributions to Vermont and across the country. When we have the capacity to help more people fleeing war and persecution, while protecting our national security, I believe we have a moral obligation to do so.”

How the Vermont counties were selected

Niskanen researcher Cassandra Zimmer-Wong developed what the organization calls a Migration Match Index, using 16 economic and demographic indicators covering all 3,144 U.S. counties and county-equivalents.

The baseline model identified 484 counties in 44 states that met five conditions:

• Unemployment below 4.3%, indicating a tight labor market.
• More job openings than unemployed workers.
• Rental housing vacancy rates above 5%.
• Two-bedroom rents costing no more than 30% of median household income.
• At least 14% of the population aged 65 or older.

Bennington, Lamoille and Windsor were the only Vermont counties included in the baseline list.

The researchers argue that some communities face a choice between attracting workers from outside their borders and experiencing further economic decline.

The report states that the index is intended to identify places where migration can provide a mutual benefit to newcomers and local economies.

The study also acknowledges that statistics alone cannot determine whether a community is prepared to receive immigrants. Public attitudes, schools, social services and local willingness to participate are among the factors that would require further review.

Federal government studying resettlement capacity

The 2025 WIN-HHS agreement called for a nationwide State Capacity and Readiness Assessment, including interviews with state officials and evaluations of housing, education, employment and staffing.

The proposed project period ran from January 5 through September 29, 2026.

Federal officials said the goal was to give states better information and greater influence over refugee placement recommendations.

The Niskanen Center has also advocated a broader immigration reform agenda, including state-based visa programs, local sponsorship of immigrants and policies that direct newcomers toward communities with labor shortages.

Its November report suggests the Migration Match Index could eventually be used to guide humanitarian resettlement, attract foreign workers and help communities with aging populations.

However, inclusion on the Niskanen list does not mean a county has agreed to accept immigrants, that federal officials have designated it as a resettlement site or that any specific number of newcomers will be sent there. Nor does the Niskanen report identify how many immigrants Bennington, Lamoille or Windsor counties could accommodate.

It also leaves open questions about whether local officials in the three counties have been consulted, whether housing identified through federal statistics is available in practice, and what costs local schools and social service providers might face if resettlement increases.