By Sam Douglass

When voters went to the polls this past Tuesday, Vermont Republicans suffered a tremendous defeat in what many are calling the “blue tsunami,” an election that will have major implications for what policies are decided in Montpelier over the next two legislative sessions. It wasn’t just the Statehouse. With the exception of Gov. Phil Scott, Vermont’s statewide races were also soundly won by Democrats.

In the 2024 election, voters sent a clear message that they wanted change, sending 18 new Republicans to the House and six to the Senate. This year, 18 Republicans in the House and six in the Senate lost their seats, many of whom were the same lawmakers elected in 2024. Democrats and Progressives in the House hold an estimated 109, while House Republicans have an estimated 37. Senate Republicans now hold 8 seats, and Senate Democrats hold 20 seats.

One of the surprising losses of the evening for Republicans came from Bennington, where Rep. Mary Morrissey (R-Bennington-5), who served in the Vermont House for 15 terms and nearly three decades, lost her seat to political newcomer Tom Blakely (D), who reportedly ran a robust campaign. Vermont voters tend to support incumbent candidates, especially after a long time in office.

So, the question remains: Why? Why did voters who overwhelmingly elected Republican candidates in 2024 reject so many of them just two years later? 

Republican politicians and political commentators across the nation have largely placed the blame for their party’s losses on nationwide frustration with the policies of the Trump administration. US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) called the results of the election, “a Watergate-level repudiation.” This may be the case in Vermont as well. Between frequent No Kings rallies held across the state, especially in Vermont’s largest municipalities, and ICE protests throughout 2026, opposition to Trump has been highly visible in the Green Mountain State.

According to voter exit polls conducted across 45 states by NBC News and a number of other news outlets, 63% of voters disapproved of the way President Trump is handling the presidency and 66% believe that economic conditions have worsened in the US under Trump. The polls were the result of in-person interviews at the polls and voter outreach to capture mail-in voters. The polls do not list the number of respondents, nor which states were left out. 

In an interview with VDC, Vermont Republican Party Chairman Paul Dame believes that sentiment in opposition to President Donald Trump did play a significant role in Vermont, including among voters who had previously supported Republicans. 

“The 2024 Trump voters who did turn out, turned out not to support Republicans, but to punish them. And punished even state-level Republicans for Trump really breaking his promises about no wars and getting gas and grocery prices down,” said Dame.

However, while dissatisfaction with the President and the national Republican Party appears to be the underlying factor, some Vermont Republicans blame themselves and point to hiccups in their own campaign strategy and messaging. The election raised questions among lawmakers and party officials about organization, and whether Vermont Republicans did enough to distinguish themselves from their national counterparts and effectively communicate their priorities to voters.

“Politics is a team sport and democracy is only as good as its weakest link,” said Rep. Gina Galfetti (R-Washington-Orange) in an interview with VDC Thursday evening. She stressed that candidates needed to work together and elevate each other, even if they live on opposite sides of the state.

Galfetti was one of the few members of the House Republican Caucus who made it through the election unscathed. She is also a candidate for Speaker of the House in January, where she will face Democratic Majority Leader Lori Houghton (D-Chittenden-22) for the speaker’s gavel.

Political campaigns can benefit greatly from personal interaction, when voters can meet someone face to face, even if it isn’t the candidate doing the outreach. Knocking on a voter’s door or picking up the phone to make calls can often be the difference between success and failure. 

Joshua Bechhoefer, the VTGOP’s national committeeman, pointed to organizations that conducted door-to-door outreach for Democratic candidates and criticized his party’s lack of collaboration with similar grassroots organizations, as well as its limited campaign infrastructure.

“We didn’t have infrastructure for a door knocking operation,” said Bechhoefer. “Democrats had a machine and a standard for infrastructure that candidates could replicate. We needed boots on the ground in every district and we didn’t have anything like that.”

Some nonprofits in Vermont, including Vermont Conservation Voters and the Vermont Public Interest Research Group (VPIRG), managed extensive canvassing operations across the state during the election either in support of specific candidates, to build awareness of key issues, or to raise funds, though these operations were not specific to 2026.

Bechhoefer also pointed to his party’s messaging in hindsight, as how candidates and their party communicate with the public can also make a key difference. 

“It’s clear that we [Vermont Republicans] didn’t insulate ourselves from national headwinds well enough. We didn’t distinguish our unique, separate brand of Republican. The data seems to bear that national headwinds were the largest contributing factor on Tuesday,” Bechhoefer said.

Galfetti likewise pointed to shortcomings in the Republican messaging strategy, particularly its ability to communicate legislative accomplishments and explain to voters how their representation in Montpelier has made a difference.

“Our messaging strategy of what we’re winning on is deficient and we aren’t doing a good enough job telling voters how their votes matter,” Galfetti said.

Affordability, particularly rising property taxes and the cost of living, was a central issue in the 2024 election and helped propel Republicans to significant legislative gains. However, in this year’s election, Democratic candidates also campaigned extensively on affordability, challenging Republicans to distinguish their positions from those of their opponents.

“When every candidate is running on affordability, it can be challenging to tell the difference,” said Galfetti, and other Republican candidates agreed.

“This race was run on affordability and Democrats caused the affordability problem, and now voters believed them when they said they could fix it,” said Lynn Lafleur, who ran for State Treasurer against incumbent Mike Pieciak (D). She also serves as Treasurer for the Vermont Republican Party.

Lafleur told VDC that during her campaign, she heard from Democrats across the state that they couldn’t vote for Democrat candidates in light of the affordability issues allegedly caused by Vermont’s Democrats. However, she also heard from voters who couldn’t vote for any Republican candidate because of Trump.

“It was so many things,” said Lafleur about the election. “Trump was certainly the main cause but party organization had an effect.”

Despite entering the 2025 legislative session with substantially greater representation, Republicans remained in the minority in both chambers, yet championed a handful of issues and collaborated on issues championed by Democrats. Agricultural policy reform, tax exemptions for veterans, and the prominent education policy reform that aimed to reduce property taxes. However, it’s been observed that Republicans in Vermont have not yet achieved the reduction in fees and property taxes that they campaigned on in 2024.

“I’m not sure Vermont Republicans could have done anything to stem that tide,” said political analyst Rob Roper about Trump’s effect on the election. “but I don’t think they [Vermont Republicans] helped themselves after getting elected on a promise to lower property taxes, putting all their political capital behind a universally unpopular education reform plan that didn’t even try to lower property taxes.”

Despite what some are calling failures, for Dame, there is a positive outlook after the results on Tuesday. 

“I think we did what we could confidently do, Vermont Republicans are not national Republicans,” he said, referencing Gov. Phil Scott and Lt. Gov. John Rodgers who have both publicly opposed President Trump and yet still suffered strong opposition at the polls.

“I feel just as miserable now as I did following the 2022 election, but we proved following that election that we can rebound, and there’s nothing I see that shows we can’t do that again in 2028,” he said.