64 percent want to leave, mostly citing high cost of living and high taxes.

by Rob Roper

Young people (18 to 34) apparently really don’t like Vermont. According to the recent University of New Hampshire Green Mountain State Poll a whopping 64 percent of that demographic wants to very much or somewhat to leave the Green Mountains for greener pastures. Less than half, just 45 percent, think Vermont is a “good place to live.” If Vermont were on a dating app, that would be a lot of swipe lefts.

No doubt the young folks are among the 86 percent of total respondents in all age cohorts who find the state unaffordable – a number described by the pollster as “overwhelming”. Yeah, that’d be the word. But it’s the younger generation that really stands out as discontented with what Vermont has to offer and is most fervently considering voting with their feet. I find this interesting because think of all the things our progressive, Bernie-oriented politicians have cooked up to keep and retain young people in Vermont.

Universal Pre-K was one of those promises. Build it and the young moms and dads will come! And work! One of the Democrats running for governor, Aly Richards, made her career bringing universal Pre-K – along with its $100 million plus payroll tax price tag – to Vermont. Back in 2021, then Senate President Pro Tem (now congresswoman) Becca Balint called universal Pre-K in the context of passing Act 45, “’a bright shiny object’ to attract and retain young families in Vermont… (Let’s Grow Kids).” Nope. Young families aren’t falling for the rather condescending “bright shiny object” trick. (Aren’t animals and morons usually associated with attraction to bright shiny objects?) Anyway, didn’t work. Still, we pay the bill for the failed program.

Another of those policy promises was mandating a high minimum wage. Back in 2020 when passing Act 86 raising the state minimum wage to $12.55 (it’s now $14.42) then Representative (now Senator – how do these people keep failing up?) Becca White (D-Windsor) dramatically proclaimed on the floor of the House, “I support this bill for the youth and young people!” Her colleague Rep. Chip Troiano (D-Stannard, now retired) stated with certainty, “This is a piece of legislation that will support and attract people to Vermont.” (VT Digger)

Well, over half a decade later, not so much. Vermont is the only state in the union to be losing population both to out migration and declining birthrates. 18- to 34-year-olds are for the most part the people who have babies. And they’re either not having them here, taking them with them when they leave, or not bringing them here when looking for new opportunities and places to build their lives.

And, noteworthy fact, the state that Vermont’s young people are or are planning to move to the most (28 percent), New Hampshire, has a $7.25 minimum wage. The minimum minimum wage. Nor does it have a state-mandated, state funded universal pre-k program. What it does have is no income tax and no sales tax. Hmmm….

But it’s not just Vermont. Massachusetts for example, taxes and spends heavily on state paid family leave, state subsidized childcare investment, but ranks 49th for population growth and in 2022 alone lost 13,700 25-34 year-olds in a single year (the 18 to 24 year olds come for college and then leave).

What about how Vermont’s decision to lead the “green” revolution by pouring tax subsidies and mandates into renewable energy programs was supposed to create a wave of young, idealistic, highly skilled, highly paid workers into our state? No? Turns out, no.

Even failing to stop climate change didn’t solve Vermont’s population bust as the predicted hoard of climate refugees from sweltering southern states has not materialized. The opposite trend is the case. Vermonters as well as other Blue State New Englanders are fleeing into the fire so to speak, decamping for the environmental saunas and steam baths that are places like Texas and Florida. Turns out cheap electricity and air conditioning is the solution of choice for global warming, not EVs, heat pumps, and high taxes on gas and home heating fuels.

If Vermont politicians are serious about attracting and retaining young people, or workforce in general, look at the states that are succeeding the most in generating domestic migration. In 2025 those states were North Carolina with over 84,000 new residents, followed by Texas (67,300), South Carolina (66,600), and Tennessee (42,000+). These are all low tax states that are pro-business with a light touch on zoning regulations to allow for affordable housing — real solutions to the main reasons Vermonters want to leave Vermont: cost of living (49 percent), different politics or social environment (38 percent), and lower taxes (32 percent). That’s the formula. Government funded “shiny object” programs, not so much.

Why doesn’t the “free stuff!!!” approach work? First of all, because it’s not free. Workers are taxpayers, and they end up footing the bill for lousy, inefficient government programs that many of them don’t benefit from anyway, so hard pass. But there’s also this: imagine you’re asked out on a date, and the person who invited you out decides they know best what you’d like and orders for you — without asking your opinion – and then has the gall to pass you the check when it comes. Such a move would give anybody, as my millennial daughter would call it, “the ick.”

And, basically, that’s what Vermont’s progressive politicians have been doing for a generation: deciding what people want, forcing it down our throats, and making us live with and pay for their bad decisions. It’s no surprise that young people are walking out on this date.

Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com