By Guy Page

With just one week remaining before Election Day, a new poll shows Republican Gov. Phil Scott holding a narrow three-point lead over Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo, while Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers trails Democrat Molly Gray by 22 points.

The survey by State Navigate.com, conducted Oct. 23-25 among 1,752 likely Vermont voters, found Scott leading Janoo 49% to 46%. The results are virtually unchanged from the polling organization’s early October survey, which showed Scott ahead 46% to 43%. The poll respondents weigh slightly Democrat over the actual Vermont Republican-Democrat split, based on how they said they voted in the 2024 presidential election vs. the actual outcome. 

State Navigator claims to be a nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, led by a Board of Directors “who are evenly divided among political party identification.” The website says staff “consists of experts across the political spectrum: conservatives, liberals, and independents, who are dedicated to giving an unbiased and transparent approach to covering state legislatures and curating the data for them. Presently, our staff is situated across four states in the northeast and south.”

Its three biggest donors are anonymous. The four, Dominion Energy, is a Virginia-based natural gas supplier. 

The latest results suggest a closely contested governor’s race heading into the Nov. 3 election, a significant change from earlier expectations that Scott would win re-election comfortably.

A University of New Hampshire poll in September showed Janoo leading Scott, while subsequent survey from Vermont Public showed Scott leading Janoo. 

The latest poll shows voters increasingly consolidating behind the two major candidates. Support for minor-party candidates Brian Judd, June Goodband and Dean Roy fell from 4% to 2%, while the share of undecided voters and respondents unable to recall their early vote declined from 8% to 3%.

Together, Scott and Janoo now account for 95% of voter preferences, compared with 89% three weeks earlier.

Scott continues to benefit from support among voters outside his own party. According to the survey, approximately one-quarter of Democrats support the Republican governor, whose job approval rating stands at 58%, compared with 40% disapproval.

The poll also found increasing partisan divisions, with Democratic voters moving toward Janoo and Republican voters moving toward Scott.

In the lieutenant governor’s race, Gray leads Rodgers 58% to 37%, a 22-point margin when rounded from the underlying results.

That represents a five-point narrowing since an earlier survey, conducted before the candidates’ Oct. 6 debate, showed Gray leading 59% to 32%.

The poll’s analysis noted that Rodgers gained ground following a debate exchange in which he questioned Gray about migrant worker housing conditions at her family’s farm. Video of the exchange circulated widely in conservative media.

Rodgers’ increased support came primarily from Republicans and independents. Only 8% of Democratic voters surveyed said they support him.

Gray, who previously served as lieutenant governor, is seeking to return to the office she held before Rodgers’ election in 2024.

The polling organization said its latest survey was weighted for demographic and party characteristics but did not use the recalled 2024 presidential vote weighting applied to its earlier October release.

Respondents recalled supporting Democrat Kamala Harris over Republican Donald Trump by 36 percentage points in 2024, compared with Harris’ actual 32-point Vermont victory margin.

The survey information provided did not specify a margin of error, making it difficult to determine whether Scott’s three-point lead is statistically significant.

Vermont voters will decide both races Tuesday, Nov. 3.