Balint huge lead over Gray, poll shows; GOP races closer, more undecided

By Guy Page

Sen. Becca Balint has a whopping lead over Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in the race for the Democratic nomination for Congress, and retired U.S. Army officer Gerald Malloy leads former U.S. Attorney Christina Nolan in the GOP race for U.S. Senate, according to a poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire this month on behalf of WCAX. 

As published by WCAX, UNH pollster Andrew Smith offered the disclaimer that “summer primaries traditionally have lower attention and lower turnout and that there are still two weeks till the primary, with multiple forums and debates in the weeks ahead that could sway voters. ‘Things could turn around because low turnout elections in primaries are very challenging to try to predict,’ Smith said.”

Provisos aside, the poll shows that if the 2022 Republican primary election for U.S. Senate was being held today, 30% of likely Republican primary voters would vote for Malloy, 24% would vote for Nolan, and 3% would vote for investment banker Myers Mermel. 42% say they are undecided. 

Mermel said the poll results are outdated and do not reflect the impact of his recent TV advertising.

“Given our recent TV buy, this race likely has changed since this survey was completed,” Mermel said. “I am the conservative candidate with the business experience to solve the problems of most concern to Vermonters: returning gas to $2, ending inflation, reducing rampant crime, and protecting the 2nd amendment. Given my business experience, and my plan to reduce crime, I can win over independents and democrats to beat Peter Welch.

The poll also claims that Balint – a progressive likely to become a junior member of ‘The Squad’ led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – has a 3-1 lead over Gray, who is seen as more moderate in the mold of early backer Sen. Patrick Leahy. 63% of likely Democratic voters would vote for Balint, 21% would vote for Gray, 2% would vote for physician Louis Meyers, and 13% are undecided.

The race for the Republican nomination to Congress is far closer and more undecided: Accountant Ericka Redic of Burlington 15%, independent-running-as-a-Republican Liam Madden 14%, and former U.S. Congress GOP nominee Anya Tynio 9%. 

In a campaign statement following the release of the poll results, Redic claimed the edge over Madden and Tynio and said that she, more than Balint, “understands that bigger government is not the answer to the problems facing our nation.”  

“We are experiencing the failure of such a belief….Democrat/Progressive habits of greater expenditure of taxes, greater government involvement in our lives, and still greater concentration of power in Washington. Elect an accountant, not another politician,” Redic said. 

The poll also shows Peter Welch as the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. It only covers the U.S. Senate and Congressional races. 

The Chronicle has solicited more comments from candidates and will update this story with them as they become available. 

Categories: politics

20 replies »

  1. Amazing. Such a spectacularly unappealing poseur. Her sickening t.v. ads so full of red meat. Love that one about “when they removed the bushes in front of the school so a shooter couldn’t hide.” Give me a break……

  2. Vermont republicans should step up and elect the Vermonter, Molly Gray. Whoever wins this primary is very likely going to win the election and most likely will be the face of Vermont in Congress for 30 years. Let’s participate and make sure the best candidate,, even though a democrat, gets to represent us.

    • what an absolutely ignorant statement. We should bend over yet again? No thanks but go for it if you want. But no whining about our screwed economy.

      • With Gray we have a chance. With Balint we have no chance. That is a fact. It is not bending over. We should do it and make a big deal over the fact we did it.

  3. Balint needs to be branded as the anti-life candidate. She supports extinguishing newborns up through 9 months. That is not OK. She holds no moral compass and should be called out as such. Why anyone would support this Marxist who favors ending the lives of infants is astonishing and sad. What’s next from Balint? Supporting suffocating newborns in their cribs within the first year? She’s despicable. Vermont has most definitely lost its way if they send her to Congress.

    • Interesting that those in the VT Legislature who are the most vocal about denouncing Vermont’s role in promoting eugenics 100 years ago are the biggest promoters of the most effective tool of eugenics…legal abortion. They honor Planned Parenthood founder and avowed racist Margaret Sanger, while insisting on renaming buildings at UVM because the person harbored some tepid level of support for eugenics when it was politically popular.

  4. “After winning the slimmest possible majority in 2020, Democrats embarked on a campaign to either rig or destroy the institutions of American democracy, including the sacredness of the secret ballot, the Electoral College, the Supreme Court, the U.S. Senate, and Citizenship itself. They called their nasty little scheme the “For the People Act”, an underhanded attempt to federalize elections and outlaw popular election integrity measures like Voter ID and bans on ballot harvesting, as well as expand government censorship of political speech, instituted public funding of political campaigns and just generally eliminate state’s rights to conduct their own elections.”
    Diogenes Sarcastica

    While Peter Welch may now try to escape culpability for the many problems Americans face, his voting record is something he can’t hide from and should have his nose rubbed in it. Those nonbinary types attempting to take his place to join The Squad are a danger to our society.

    Our way of life and system of government is in danger – both in Vermont and nationally.
    It’s time to flush some fecal matter out of Montpelier and Washington DC.

  5. I am so sick of seeing Becka’s adds that I could vomit. I wouldn’t vote for her if she were the only candidate because of her boring campaign adds.

      • Good one! “smiley, huggy” to describe Balint. I find her campaign ad highlighting her “kindness” particularly offensive given her support to murder newborns up to 9 months. Rather than kindness, how about “despicably ruthless”. That seems more fitting. People who support her are culpable to this and should be ashamed of themselves…

  6. We have one chance to win the senate seat and Myers Mermel is the ONLY one who has a very good shot at doing that. If you’ve never heard him speak then check out the republican senate debate or watch the one coming next week. He is knowledgeable and extremely articulate, the one who can convince independents and moderate republicans to vote for change. If Gerald wins the primary I will do what I can to help but it will be a very long shot.
    Christine Nolan is a RINO who voted for Biden. I would never vote for her PERIOD.

  7. Balint is awash in DNC money – Bernie & spouse have taught her well on the advertising purchase and kickback scheme….very lucrative. Same old corrupted swamp rats, former Feds, and lifetime woke grifter bureaucrats. As if we really have a choice in this State…elect a clown – get a circus.

    • I assume you are voting for Molly. With Molly, the native Vermonter, we have a chance. With Balint we are lost.

  8. Molly Gray has stepped on a lot of toes the way she wedged her shopping cart in front of the political checkout line in the run for her Lt. Gov seat. The free stuff being offered by her opponent Becca is irresistible to many deadbeat progressives. Many people who do not think of themselves as democrats will need to use a democrat ballot on August 9 and give Molly Gray your vote so we can send her to DC, where she will do far less harm to Vermonters than if she stays up here and ultimately runs for Governor.
    She will simply be Peter Welch with a skirt so nothing much will change there. Balint is more of an extremist and will not pull as many centrist votes in an election for a state office. After you do that, you can tell your liberal friends that you are pragmatic and bi-partisan because you voted for a democrat in 2022. Just save your real political angst and motivation for the November election.

  9. With Molly we have a chance. With Balint we are lost and probably lost for the next 30 years as she will be the heir apparent to Sanders. Your post is good but I think you are underestimating Molly’s ability to do what’s right for Vermont.

    • Molly’s ads promote bringing “Vermont values” to Washington. Well, for one thing, it is obvious that not all agree on what constitutes “Vermont values”. Some of us believe that means demanding a higher level of personal responsibility and having a credible criminal justice system. Some like Molly think that includes being ok with flamboyant gay men dressing up like female prostitutes reading stories to small children in the local library.