By Guy Page

Amanda Janoo’s narrow victory over Aly Richards in Tuesday’s Democratic gubernatorial primary was built on a striking geographic coalition: commanding margins in Burlington and progressive-leaning southern Vermont communities, coupled with strong performances in a number of small rural towns.

Janoo, 38, of Burlington, a newcomer to elective politics in Vermont and a former United National industrial policy expert, defeated Richards, of Montpelier, a former deputy chief of staff for Shumlin and the architect of legislation providing subsidized child care via a payroll tax, by a tally of 39,616 to 37,567, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s election results page.

Richards, meanwhile, showed considerably greater strength in affluent Chittenden County suburbs, Montpelier-area communities and several larger towns where Janoo’s progressive outsider message did not perform nearly as well.

The selected municipal results provide a window into how Janoo pulled off an upset against Richards, the former head of Let’s Grow Kids. Janoo entered the race as a political newcomer and campaigned as an outsider calling for substantial changes in state policy. Richards emphasized her experience working within Vermont government and political circles. Richards also benefited from more than $200,000 in independent spending by a super PAC supporting her candidacy.

The clearest piece of Janoo’s winning formula was Burlington.

Janoo received 4,641 votes in Vermont’s largest city to Richards’ 3,248 — a margin of 1,393 votes. That single-city advantage accounted for more than two-thirds of Janoo’s eventual statewide margin of roughly 2,050 votes.

The Burlington result is particularly important because the surrounding suburbs often went the other way.

Richards carried Colchester 1,094-897. She won Williston 924-637, a 287-vote advantage, and swept Shelburne’s two districts by a combined 1,122-710, giving her a 412-vote margin there.

South Burlington was much closer but also went to Richards, 1,815-1,668. Janoo won three of the five listed South Burlington districts, but Richards ran up enough votes in the other two to carry the city overall.

Essex Town/Junction was almost perfectly divided: Janoo 1,686, Richards 1,652.

Taken together, the results suggest that Burlington itself was substantially more favorable territory for Janoo than much of suburban Chittenden County.

A similar divide appeared around Montpelier, where Richards lives and has many friends and colleagues within state government and advocacy circles.

Richards won the capital city 1,306-984, a substantial 322-vote margin. She also carried East Montpelier 411-303 and Waterbury 485-307.

But Janoo performed considerably better in several nearby working-class or rural communities. She won Barre City 363-279, Northfield 242-167 and Plainfield 166-114. Barre Town, by contrast, narrowly went for Richards, 342-322.

Southern Vermont supplied another major component of Janoo’s coalition.

In Brattleboro’s three listed districts, Janoo defeated Richards by a combined 1,240-818 — a 422-vote margin. She also won Putney 289-183, Guilford 247-137, Newfane 180-89 and Westminster 317-160.

Those were not simply narrow victories. In several Windham County communities, Janoo was receiving roughly twice Richards’ vote.

The pattern was not universal in southern Vermont. Richards carried Manchester 321-199 and Springfield 454-320.

Some of Janoo’s strongest percentages came from much smaller rural communities.

In Strafford, where Janoo grew up, she crushed Richards 260-81, taking more than three-quarters of the votes cast between the two candidates. Hardwick went for Janoo 217-79, Glover 78-31 and Huntington 308-133.

Janoo also posted substantial margins in Fairfax, 260-146; Bristol, 374-205; Randolph, 375-260; and Hartford, 570-481.

Richards had her own pockets of pronounced strength.

Newbury (her childhood hometown) went overwhelmingly for Richards, 231-70, while Bradford voted for Richards 198-91. She carried Shelburne, Williston, Colchester, Montpelier, East Montpelier, Waterbury, Manchester and Springfield. Hartland also went for Richards, 277-243.

Norwich was nearly even, with Janoo ahead 515-489.

The selected results therefore resist a simple urban-versus-rural explanation.

Janoo won Vermont’s biggest city by a large margin, but she also won a collection of small rural towns including Strafford (where she was raised), Glover, Hardwick, Plainfield, Guilford and Huntington. Richards simultaneously carried the state capital and some of Chittenden County’s largest and wealthier suburban communities.

Instead, the results point toward a different political geography within Vermont’s Democratic electorate.

Janoo appears to have assembled a coalition centered on Burlington, Brattleboro and numerous smaller communities receptive to her progressive, anti-establishment campaign. Richards performed better in many suburban and institutional Democratic strongholds, particularly around Burlington and Montpelier.