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For the last several years, state politics has been defined by the dynamic between Governor Scott and the Democratic legislature. If Scott decides not to run, that entire dynamic vanishes.
A new poll on Vermont politics recently made headlines, and the initial takeaway was simple: Governor Phil Scott is popular, and his potential Democratic challengers are not well known. According to a press release from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center about its October 2025 Green Mountain State Poll, a “Majority in Vermont Want Scott to Run Again in 2026, Uncertain About Pieciak and Clark.”
On the surface, this frames a familiar “horse race” narrative of a strong incumbent versus weak challengers. But these top-line numbers are only the beginning of the story. They mask a more complex and interesting reality about Vermont’s unique political landscape.
When you look behind the numbers, the poll doesn’t just show a popular governor; it explains his popularity by reflecting a political brand he has carefully built for years. And it doesn’t show a “weak” Democratic field; it shows two first-term officials who are in the normal, early stages of introducing themselves to the public—each representing a different potential future for their party.
First, A Look at the Poll Itself
Before we can understand the findings, we have to understand the tool that produced them. The Green Mountain State Poll was conducted by the UNH Survey Center, which, according to its website, is a long-standing academic research center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative.
According to UNH, the poll was conducted using a “probability-based web panel,” a modern method where participants are recruited using random sampling to ensure the pool is representative, and then they take surveys online.
But the most important detail often buried in poll reporting is the margin of error. While the exact margin for this poll was not in the initial press release, a statewide poll of this type might have a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. This is critical. It means that if a result is reported as 65 percent, the “true” number in the population is likely a range—somewhere between 61 percent and 69 percent. It’s a measure of statistical uncertainty that is built into every poll. Any report that omits this detail gives a false sense of precision.
The Scott Phenomenon: An Alliance of Opposites
The poll’s finding that Governor Phil Scott is popular is not new. But why has a Republican governor held such high approval in one of the most Democratic states in the nation? It is not an accident; it is the result of a deliberate and unique political brand.
According to Ballotpedia, Scott has successfully cultivated an identity as a “fiscal conservative and a social moderate.” He reinforces his conservative credentials by regularly clashing with the Democratic supermajority in the legislature over state spending and taxes. His recent mandate requiring state employees to return to the office, which, according to Seven Days, triggered significant pushback from the state employees’ union, is a prime example.
However, he has paired this with a very public and decisive break from the national Republican Party.
- When President Donald Trump sought to deploy National Guard troops to American cities, Governor Scott called the action “unconstitutional,” according to the Valley News.
- He backed this up with action, with WUSF reporting that he rejected a direct White House request to deploy Vermont’s National Guard to Washington, D.C.
- According to Ballotpedia, he has also stated that he voted for Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in presidential elections.
This combination of fiscal conservatism at home and vocal opposition to the national GOP has inoculated him from the partisan warfare seen elsewhere. For many Vermonters, he is not “a Republican” but “Governor Scott.” His high approval rating is a direct reflection of this carefully maintained identity.
“Uncertainty” vs. Anonymity: Putting the Democratic Numbers in Context
This brings us to the other side of the poll’s headline: the “uncertainty” surrounding Democratic Treasurer Mike Pieciak and Democratic Attorney General Charity Clark.
The poll’s framing could imply this is a sign of political weakness. The reality is much simpler: it’s a sign of political normality. According to Wikipedia, both Pieciak and Clark were elected to their first terms and took office in January 2023. It is completely typical for officials in these less-visible, down-ballot offices to have low name recognition just two years into their jobs.
What the poll actually provides is a “baseline” measurement for two rising figures who represent very different models of leadership.
- Mike Pieciak has built a public profile as a pragmatic, non-ideological technocrat. According to Wikipedia, he was previously the Commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation, a role he was first appointed to by Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin and then reappointed to by Republican Governor Phil Scott. This bipartisan endorsement, combined with his data-driven presentations during the COVID-19 pandemic, has defined his image. As Treasurer, he has focused on broadly popular initiatives like the “Vermont Saves” public retirement program and investing in affordable housing, according to the Democratic Treasurers Association.
- Charity Clark, in contrast, has forged a profile as a progressive activist. According to the Attorney General’s Office and the National Association of Attorneys General, she made history as the first woman elected Vermont’s Attorney General and has since initiated high-profile lawsuits against corporations like Monsanto and Meta. She has also been a vocal public defender of reproductive rights, joining multi-state legal challenges.
The “uncertainty” in the poll simply means that most Vermonters haven’t yet had a reason to form a strong opinion on Pieciak or Clark. The “horse race” has not yet begun.
What This Poll Really Means for Vermonters
This is why looking beyond the initial headlines is so important. This poll is not a definitive prediction of what will happen in 2026. Instead, it is a snapshot of an impending political realignment in Vermont.
For the last several years, state politics has been defined by the dynamic between Governor Scott and the Democratic legislature. If Scott, who has not yet announced his 2026 plans, decides not to run again, that entire dynamic vanishes.
The central political question in the state would no longer be a partisan clash. It would become an intra-party debate within the Democratic majority about what kind of leader it wants to put forward. The poll gives us an early glimpse of that choice: the technocratic, bipartisan model of Mike Pieciak or the progressive, activist model of Charity Clark.
For Vermonters, the “solution” is not to worry about the “uncertainty” in a poll taken a year before an election cycle truly begins. The opportunity is to use this time to look past the top-line numbers, learn about the emerging leaders in the state, and understand the fundamentally different approaches they represent. The real story is not “who is up and who is down” today. It is about the choice Vermonters will have to make about the future direction of their state.
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Categories: News Analysis
In other words he plays Vermonters like a cheap fiddle, getting re-elected to make Vermont the first colony of the United Nations. Team uniparty all the way. Agenda 2030, you will own nothing and own nothing and be happy.
The fiscal conservative is a complete show.
Say what you will about Governor Scott. He does know how to play the Vermont field better than most political gigolos, having voted for Biden and Harris after all.
And, of course, take whatever Compass Vermont says with a pre-jaded view. Being ‘uncertain about Pieciak and Clark’ is its way of saying they are our only reasonable choices, but that Pieciak (the ‘bipartisan technocrat’, tsk, tsk) and Clark (the ‘progressive activist’), have stables of political prostitutes that may not be as accommodating as Scott’s.
In the final analysis, in case you didn’t pick up on the not-so-subtle false dichotomies inferred by this Compass Vermont attempt to set our political table, this article is a [Mike Pieciak for Governor] promo.
Give me Calvin Coolidge any day.
There is no team, it doesn’t matter who the gov is, without a team we can’t change anything.
The only difference is the pace we march toward the new world order domination.
Scott may slow the pace but the direction is still the same. Enjoy your school choice!
“Give me Calvin Coolidge any day.” or George Aiken, Deane Davis, Dick Snelling, Jim Douglas, etc, etc.
Aiken’s tenure, reasonable as he was, marks the beginning of the end to true conservatism in Vermont. Calvin Coolidge was the epitome of small-government conservatism, governing Vermont with a purist commitment to frugality and minimal state intervention. George Aiken, while fiscally conservative, introduced a more flexible, moderate approach, embracing limited federal aid and state-driven conservation, a divergence from Coolidge’s rigid laissez-faire stance. Aiken was the Camel’s nose under the tent flap. The governors listed thereafter moved right into the tent and continued the political march to conservative obscurity.
Those who criticize Gov. Scott for his moderate stances and call him RINO will have quite a shock, as will we all after the inauguration of Gov. LaLonde, Gov. Baruth or Gov. Charity Clark…all very scary prospects. Compared to those options, I will be content being played like a cheap fiddle.
In other words, Rich, you’ve figured out, personally, how to mitigate the resulting progressive indiscretions we get with Scott, but with those you list above, their indiscretions likely might be so much worse, you fear you will not be able to cope.
Did I read you correctly? Because I’m in a similar boat.
But the progressive ‘water drip torture’ on our individual foreheads, that we’re getting with the Scott administration, is becoming even more untenable. Those of us who understand the difference between free enterprise and centralized collective governance know that the latter is unsustainable… for myriad reasons. And while I’m as prepared as I think I can be for the dystopian consequences of Progressive governance (God help those who aren’t), I’m done with being the proverbial frog in slowly boiling water.
Yes, bring it on. Elect the fools. Let’s get it over with. The sooner we let them implode the system (and they’re getting dangerously close), the sooner we can get back to the free-market principles that accommodate everyone.
He could have built the party, he did not.
Nothing will change in Vermont under his leadership, just like nothing has changed for decades, under his leadership. we are still headed in the same direction, all because of this false dichotomy.
Vermont is a subverted state, recognizing where we are is the first step to solving the problem.
They are not moderate stances.
Having the entire dem party vote for Haley?
Publicly announcing voting for Biden?
Closing business because of refusing experimental vax?
2@ and article 16 are not moderate.
Children’s rights and parental control are out of hand.
England screwed the world over, very politely. We need to know the difference. I will not be voting for him.
Maybe Bernie will get his buddy to move here and we’ll have Gov Mamdami when he looses the NY Governor race to Gov Latricia James
So to quote Russell Crowe, “the lesser of two weevils” ? It sucks, but that is what choices for political office have become this state.
Say what you want about Phil Scott but he’s why taxes didn’t sky rocket last session as the Democratic majority was no longer “Super” and had to play ball. Remember, it was their override of Scott’s veto that gave us a 14% property tax increase. At least Phil Scott has the guts to hold the line on taxes and fees.
Is he perfect? No politician is but if he’s to survive in Vermont, he needs to play Centrist. Anyone else in the Governor’s chair would have saddled us with another tax hike. I’ll take Scott with that in mind.
Re: “Say what you want about Phil Scott but he’s why taxes didn’t sky rocket last session as the Democratic majority was no longer “Super” and had to play ball.”
I respectfully disagree. You said it yourself …the Democratic majority was no longer “Super”.
The voters hold the cards. I thank the voters, not Scott, for the demise of the super-majority. Scott simply put his finger to the political wind, while still openly voting for Harris – BTW.
While there are no state-wide elections in Vermont next week, and local elections may point out trends for the 2026 mid-terms, make no mistake, the 2026 town meeting day votes and 2026 November mid-terms will likely indicate whether or not Vermont voters are still catching on.
Jay, I agree that we the voters hold the cards and did something about the “Super” last year. In doing so, the remaining majority did indeed have to play ball with the governor who continues to advocate against more taxes. Before last year, most of his vetoes were overridden so I applaud him for his continued stance. No doubt he will continue it.
IMO, he’s the only line between the current majority and them helping themselves to our wallets again until we can vote some more of that majority out…IF people have caught on as you said.
Phil Scott has been a voice of reason, pargmatism and decency throughout his career.
Since becoming Governor he has articulated among other things the need for affordability, promoted the need to have more young people enter the trades, and not taxing veterans benefits.
Scott has skillfully played the really bad hand he had been delt with the Demorcatic Supermajority. He has made progress when he couold and when not, issued more vetos than any other governor in Vermont history. Scott hasd invested his time and funds to help secure the largest turn around in legisltative history in the 2024 election.
While I do not agree with everything he has done, as is the case for many on this site, I do recognize that he represents for most Vermonters, myself included, our values as citizens of the Green Mountain State. What needs to be done now is to hope that Scott will run for one more term and concentrate on getting more electable candidates in races for the House and Senate.
This website has become an echo chamber of insanity with some very short memories, The shutdown of this state and the governor demanding that eighty percent of the people in this state take the COVID KILL SHOT before he would open up the economy will go down in history as mass murder. Comment from Richard Day.
Here is the difference, between Uniparty/Rino/Vt Dem/Marxist and true conservatives.
The former wants your money, power, control, chaos, fighting and to destroy the family. The later does not.
Scott plays the game well in getting the dems, the other side of the uniparty vote. He throws a bone to the rinos now and then, and sheds fear on conservatives for what might happen “if he weren’t governor”.
Here’s how to expose the charade and win hearts of the public, because most agree on topics, just not tribe. Some work is best done when you are a minority, because it really, really exposes the hearts of the Marxist/Uniparty crowd.
Misogyny claim:
Feud between men and women. Marxist/uniparty wants division, fighting, conservatives don’t.
How to expose:
Conservatives should demand equal pay for men and women, immediately. This does two things, makes sure if there are discrepancies they get resolved. It demonstrates true love for women. It exposes the lie about wages. They have all the pay stubs for every person in the state. They won’t do it. It’s no lose for conservatives.
Only for the Rich:
We don’t have hearts for the poor, which is not true, we believe in a hand up is better than handouts.
How to expose:
Car registration for any vehicle over 10 years old is $5.00. Any gas-powered car averaging over 30mpg combined has no sales tax. All car registration is now only $25. People with suspended driver’s licenses can drive 50cc vehicles with special permission. They won’t do it.
We are not for the environment:
We don’t care about the environment, which is not true.
How to expose:
Ban glyphosate/ Round Up or 200% tax
No farm tax on farms transitioning to organic
Organic Farms taxed at 50% of farm rate.
Heritage seed and farm animal incentives
Right to farm and produce food, food sovereignty.
Ban fake meat ala Bill Gates.
There are so many wonderful ways to be good stewards.
There are so many examples, you see, they can’t change, they can’t change from their script, from their orders……they are told what to do and they comply, they are so full of themselves.
If we get them fighting against themselves, if we expose their true hearts, which is easy……we don’t’ have to fight at all. We only have to watch them collapse under their own pride, stupidity and greed. They will collapse under their lies if we only stop playing their game. We can’t take the bait.
Scott could do all of this, but he chooses to support the uniparty rather than lead.
Peace.
Voting for Scott the so-called middle of the roader is the same choice they are getting in New York voting for Cuomo over Mamdani. With Mandani it will be a quick death. With Cuomo it will be death by a thousand cuts.
“There are two sides to every issue: one side is right, and the other is wrong, but the middle is always evil. The man who is wrong still retains some respect for truth, if only by accepting the responsibility of choice. But the man in the middle is the knave who blanks out the truth in order to pretend that no choice or values exist, who is willing to sit out the course of any battle, willing to cash in on the blood of the innocent or to crawl on his belly to the guilty, who dispenses justice by condemning both the robber and the robbed to jail, who solves conflicts by ordering the thinker and the fool to meet each other halfway. In any compromise between food and poison, it is only death that can win. In any compromise between good and evil, it is only evil that can profit. In that transfusion of blood which drains the good to feed the evil, the compromise is the transmitting rubber tube.” – Ayn Rand
“There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide.” – Ayn Rand
And this is how Charlie Kirk won hearts on the most liberal environment, even more so than Vermont, college campus. He loved people, he loved the truth, he was filled with a loving spirit, the Holy Spirit.
This is how you win in Vermont.
Your North Star has to be fixed, higher than the everyday banter.
What they don’t want at all costs are Charlie Kirk’s in Vermont or the VTGOP……..that would be game over
Conservatives 1. Uniparty 0
Oh, how nice it would be to put up some wins, remarkably there are people with love for others, Jesus Christ and our country speaking up on the radio show the Guy is doing. It is so wonderful to hear others. Who knew? That’s what they want, for us to believe there are not other sane people out there.