Medicare: Four years to insolvency

By John McClaughry

“The Medicare Trustees Report estimated that Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund will be insolvent in 2026. At that point, the fund will have to rely on incoming revenues, essentially operating on a cash-flow basis—and there won’t be enough cash.”

John McClaughry

Peter Suderman of keeps a close watch on Federal fiscal issues. Here’s what he tells us from the recent annual report of the Medicare trustees.    

“In 2026, the hospital insurance fund will be able to cover only about 91 percent of its bills. In the years that follow, that gap will grow only larger. Without changes to the program’s financing, doctors, hospitals, and other medical providers will face rapidly reduced payments from the program. This will have ripple effects on the provision and availability of health care and on the wider American economy, roughly a sixth of which revolves around health care services.”

“The report also noted …that its fiscal forecast assumes that an array of cost-reduction measures, including a series of caps on Medicare physician payments and bonuses, will persist. But the trustees noted that Medicare’s “long-range costs could be substantially higher than shown throughout much of the report if the cost-reduction measures prove problematic and new legislation scales them back.”

Somehow the Democrats in Congress don’t grasp this. They are trying to enact lots of new Medicare benefits – when Medicare won’t be able to pay its bills just four short years from now. This will compound the irresponsibility and bring Medicare’s day of insolvency even closer than 2026.

The author, a Kirby resident, is founder and vice-president of the Ethan Allen Institute. To read all EAI news and commentary, go to

Categories: Commentary

8 replies »

  1. “Somehow the Democrats in Congress don’t grasp this.” I’m sure that Democrats “grasp this” it’s just just not in their warped interest to be honest about it,, and make it an issue, being less than a year until the 2022 elections.

  2. No worries. Most of the seniors got the vax. I can’t imagine they’re going to live long lives after that, especially with all the boosters. So I’d anticipate there being a radical “die off” of Medicare eligible people over the next few years anyway.

      • That report does state the 40x likelihood but it does not lay out its testing policies adequately. Also, the overall the data does NOT support their conclusion.

        “Among people with positive COVID-19 tests, including PCR and antigen tests (n = 1,545,390): 1,314,337 (85.0%) were unvaccinated, 184,732 (12.0%) were partially vaccinated, and 46,321 (3.0%) were fully vaccinated”

        “Among people with COVID-19—associated deaths (n = 28,659), 24,517 (85.5%) were unvaccinated, 1,942 (6.8%) were partially vaccinated, and 2,200 (7.7%) were fully vaccinated.”

        The data is also likely corrupted by testing policies. If one is vaccinated then testing is likely not required. The report does not show how many of each group were tested and how often.

        In short, this report is garbage.

      • From Report:

        Unvaccinated people were 20 times more likely to experience COVID-19-associated
        death than fully vaccinated people.


        Guess Vermont is an outlier.

        It is FACT that for 3 months running more vaccinated than unvaccinated died from Covid.

  3. This is a deep concern to us comrades. Rest assured the party is doing its upmost best to accelerate the process.

  4. We are guaranteed nothing but disappointment when we rely on the government to provide any product or service that can be more adequately provided by the free market.

  5. Well, of course more vaccinated are dying. They outnumber the unvaccinated 10 to 1. So, PROPOTIONATELY how many more vaccinated are dying?