By VDC staff

A newly announced trade deal between the United States and Japan will deliver major economic benefits to Vermont’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors, Vermont Republican Party Chair Paul Dame said in a July 24 statement. He criticized top Democrats for what he says are contradictory and politically motivated projections about the economic impacts of trade policy.

Japan trade deal expected to strengthen semiconductor and agricultural exports

The strategic U.S.-Japan Trade and Investment Agreement, announced this week by the White House, includes a provision for $8 billion in Japanese purchases of U.S. agricultural products—corn in particular—as well as significant new investment in the American semiconductor industry.

“This is great news for people and businesses in Vermont who make and export goods and services around the world,” Dame said in a statement Wednesday. “Vermont’s top export category is semiconductor manufacturing, and this deal secures new sources of funding and investment for plants like the one in Essex Junction.”

The deal is also expected to benefit major Vermont-based defense and precision manufacturing firms like General Dynamics and G.S. Precision, which could gain from Japanese purchases of U.S. defense equipment. The agreement emphasizes support for revitalizing America’s industrial base, including investments in semiconductor design and fabrication, an industry critical to Vermont’s economy.

GOP: Dems’ conflicting numbers undermine credibility

Alongside the positive economic forecast, Dame launched sharp criticism at state Democrats for what he described as “fearmongering” and “contradictory lies” surrounding the potential cost of tariffs to Vermont residents.

Dame pointed to comments made in April by Vermont State Treasurer Mike Pieciak, who claimed Trump-era tariffs would cost Vermonters more than $1 billion. That estimate, the VTGOP argues, is out of step with more recent claims from the Vermont Democratic Party, which posted on social media this week that total costs from tariffs amounted to just $32.5 million.

“That means even Pieciak’s own party agrees that his claims have proven wildly inaccurate,” Dame said. “These are numbers being made up for political purposes, and they lack the discipline and moderation that should accompany good governance and reliable communication.”

Dame further questioned the data sources behind Pieciak’s billion-dollar estimate, pointing to inconsistencies in cited trade partners and overall import figures. For example, a report from the Vermont Department of Labor estimated the state’s total imports in 2024 at just $3.77 billion—making a $1 billion loss from tariffs appear, in Dame’s words, “especially absurd.”

Pieciak estimate based on national numbers

In his April statement, Treasurer Pieciak defended his $1 billion estimate by citing national-level research.

“While the economic impact of the Trump tariffs on Vermont is difficult to calculate,” Pieciak said, “The Yale Budget Lab, a non-partisan policy research center, estimated the Trump tariffs to date (including April 2 and earlier) will cost the average U.S. household an additional $3,800 per year. For Vermont’s 279,612 households, that amounts to $1.06 billion in additional costs statewide. For comparison, Vermont’s property taxes increased by about $200 million in FY24, while the State’s sales tax revenue totaled about $700 million that year.”

Unanswered questions for Democrats, VT GOP says

The conflicting projections raise questions about accuracy and accountability, Republicans say. Dame posed several challenges to state Democrats and the Treasurer:

• Why are the Vermont Democrats and Treasurer Pieciak offering such drastically different figures?
  
• Does Pieciak stand by his earlier claim, or does he now concede that it was overstated?
  
• Do Democrats believe their own recent $32 million estimate is correct, and if so, are they willing to disavow the Treasurer’s earlier projection?
  
• “International trade is such a complex and nuanced field right now,” Dame said, “that Democrats have no basis to make final claims about what Vermonters will pay. They are ignoring variables that don’t suit their political narrative.”

Meanwhile, Republicans are positioning themselves as champions of pro-growth, trade-focused policies that they argue will bring real opportunities to the state.

“With a major global economy like Japan now doubling down on American manufacturing and agriculture,” Dame concluded, “Vermont is poised to benefit—despite the noise and fearmongering from the other side.”