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By Guy Page
Democrat Amanda Janoo has taken a narrow lead over Republican Gov. Phil Scott in Vermont’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll released Sunday.
Election Day in Tuesday, November 3.
The Green Mountain State Poll, conducted in October, found that 51% of likely voters support or are leaning toward Janoo, compared with 43% for Scott. Independent Brian Judd received 4%, while 1% supported another candidate and 1% remained undecided.
Other polls in recent weeks have shown Scott with a narrow lead over Janoo.
Janoo’s lead in the UNH poll marks a shift from September, when she held a 49%-43% advantage over Scott. The poll suggests a potentially competitive race for the incumbent Republican, who has won reelection comfortably in recent years.
Despite Janoo’s lead, 62% of likely voters believe Scott will win the election, compared with 25% who expect Janoo to prevail. Another 13% were unsure.
The poll also found that affordability and inflation remain the top concerns for Vermont voters, followed by economic and financial security and taxes or public spending.
The Green Mountain State Poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center as part of its States of Opinion Project.
The survey of 1,231 Vermonters was completed October 27 – 31. Among the respondents, 60% identified as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and 11% as Independents.
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Categories: politics
Scott will win it, I think. The poll over samples Democrats, for one reason…..”Janoo” sounds too much like a new name for Santa Clause.
Again, another poor effort by UNH Pollsters- however, I have never and will never participate in any polling, like many other Conservatives. As to the likely effect of reducing voter turnout? Mission accomplished. Vermont’s apathetic and agnostic voters will see the headline and not bother to show up tomorrow.
If the results tomorrow are as this poll predicts, Nov. 4th marks the beginning of the end for the moderate, middle class resident of Vermont. Slowly at first, then all at once we will disappear to less brutal states.
Good to see you Frank! You’ve been missed.
Was it a “poor effort” by UNH pollsters when they had Scott up by 8 to 16 points in June and July? Judging the accuracy of polls by who’s leading doesn’t really make much sense, does it?
The devil is in the details, mr. perrault. The methodology counts. UNH Survey Center, “Blue Wave Lifts Janoo Over Scott in Vermont? Balint & Gray Hold Comfortable Leads 11/1/2026” (2026). All UNH Survey Center Polls. 1012.
https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1012
Polls reflect the desire of those that paid for them and the bias of those that create them.
Polls are a lot like the news, one sided. So, people that don’t watch the news are uninformed and those that watch the news are misinformed.
My only concern is the female vote. Young women may surge vote for the female (does Janoo identify as female excuse me if I’m incorrect). Voting to some is nothing more than a popularity contest not unlike the prom king and queen. If voters truly researched the candidates they will find Janoo lacking.
I truly researched the candidates and support Janoo.
And I haven’t seen any discussion, anywhere by anyone on Janoo’s gender identity. That comment is a little weird, John – what are to trying to say?
John chides voters for not truly researching a candidate while simultaneously admitting his own lack of research about a candidate.
What a world.
Mark, I just didn’t want to offend anyone. David, I don’t rate candidates by woke criteria so I didn’t research that subject.
Janoos are ideas for government mirror those of Bernie Sanders, a worthless entity that has never delivered on any of his promises in 35 years. If they didn’t work then, what makes they (her) think it will work now?
I agree completely Dan. I just want to point out that it started in 1981 when voters elected him Mayor of Burlington . So it is actually 45 years since he began the socialist takover of the Queen City. Now he is trying to do the same for the whole country.
David Dempsey
I pray Brian Judd does not cause Amanda Janoo to be elected governor.
If Janoo wins, Scott deserves to lose, He not a forceful governor and rather wimpy, but he’s not had much backing from the Reps. Now there’s a Rep that’s endorsing a Dem. Predictable.
Janoo can have the whole stinking mess called Montpelier, then the dems will finally be half accountable for sheet show they have made. The most popular governor in Vermont has done far more to build the Vt dem party than his own. He voted for their candidates, he campaigned against his own leadership when he could have kept his mouth shut. He has not supported the most basic of constitutional rights of out federal and state constitution. It’s not the reps that are the problem!