Evslin: We cannot afford for Ukraine to lose

By Tom Evslin, Fractals of Change

First, we all thought that Ukraine would be conquered in two days. It wasn’t only Putin who made that mistake, it was almost everyone else, including me. Now, because of Ukrainians’ incredible courage, we’re dangerously optimistic that they will manage to defeat the Russian invasion even though Putin is clearly willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. They may never surrender, but they can be slaughtered and brutally subjugated – at least for a while.

Tom Evslin

Even if we didn’t care about them as people, we cannot afford to have them lose. At this point, any end, which doesn’t involve the humiliation of Putin, is a clear and present danger to the rest of NATO – which includes us. If triumphant – or even allowed a face-saving way out, Putin has now learned the weakness of his army and will correct much of it before his next assault. He will also be reinforced in his belief that the West does not have the will to avoid being conquered piecemeal. Meanwhile Ukrainian refugees will become a burden on their host countries and Eastern Europe will be increasingly uncertain of our resolve to defend NATO and they will seek Russian accommodation.

Even if Russia does occupy Ukraine, we will continue our sanctions – and should. Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian energy; but that oil and gas will be sold cheaply to its other big customer – China. With a source of cheap energy including plenty of coal, China will continue to grow stronger. This stronger and even richer China will invade Taiwan, confident that the West will retreat behind a cordon of self-drawn red lines.

At some point we’ll have to face a resurgent Russia, possibly a Russia in military alliance with China.

There is no better time than now, no less risky time than now, to push the bear as far back in its cave as we can. The Russian army has been at least wounded thanks to the Ukrainians. It’ll take time for it to rebuild and reinvent itself. Putin doesn’t want war with NATO now. How do I know? Because, if he wanted such a war, he could easily have it. He’s said the sanctions are tantamount to war. He’s said that our supplying weapons to Ukraine is tantamount to war. He’s tiptoed closer to the Polish border. But he hasn’t even cut off natural gas to the countries which are arming Ukraine. He needs the money. His army clearly isn’t ready. This is the time to push him back.

I favor a no-fly zone but don’t think there’s a national consensus for that – yet. Meanwhile we should be facilitating the transfer of the Polish MiGs to the Ukrainians. It must happen in the next few days.

Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby say that we have decided that the MiGs wouldn’t be much help to the Ukrainians. A lot we know about that. We didn’t think they could hold off Russian tanks for two days.  Let the Ukrainians be the judge of what they need to protect their people.

Most dangerous of all is the argument Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have been making in public against both the no-fly zone and the transfer of the MiGs: “It’s risky. We might end up shooting at or being shot at by Russians.” Yeah, sticking by our NATO obligations is also risky. It means shooting at Russians if the time comes. Do you think the people of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania aren’t worried we won’t be risk adverse when the Russians attack them?

There is risk in confronting Putin, no doubt about it. There’s also risk for Putin in firing the first shot at NATO, especially when his army is clearly in no shape to take on more enemies and when he hasn’t yet built more pipelines to China. There’s more risk to us in waiting until he’s stronger.

We should enforce a no-fly zone. Failing that, we must at least get the MiGs into Ukrainian hands while they’re still able to use them in our defense as well as their own.

The author, an author, entrepreneur, former Vermont state cabinet officer, lives in Stowe. He founded NG Advantage, a natural gas truck delivery company. This commentary is republished with permission from his blog, Fractals of Change.

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14 replies »

  1. Arguably the most uninformed (or propagandist) stuff I’ve read regarding the situation. Aside from the fact that the US government and it’s “mainstream” media arm have for previous years declared Ukraine and its government as a hotbed of international corruption, Putin has a right – and duty – to defend his country. The US government and NATO have been playing dirty pool with Russia as regards Ukraine and the evils happening there. Obama/Biden toadie Victoria Nuland just admitted before Congress that the US is involved with biolabs in Ukraine yet Evslin and too many others have either willfully ignored or are inexcusably unaware that she admitted we are fully engaged in dirty business in Ukraine, not to mention the Biden crime family’s dirty dealings there and so much more… Yet, now we’re being told by our installed government and it’s media lapdogs that (excepting the Ukrainian people, of course) the Ukraine government and military are now some kind of heroes? Yeah, not so much.

  2. If it’s going so badly for the Russians, why the call for entering the war by means of a “no-fly” zone? Evslin has fallen into the trap of thinking that Russia’s lack of targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure (“shock & awe”) and focusing on military targets only is a sign of failure. I don’t remember anyone saying it would be over in 2 days. It could have been avoided altogether, of course, but Zelensky had already thrown over the Minsk agreements concerning Donetsk and Lugansk (attacks by Kiev forces and the Azov brigade there having increased 5- to 10-fold in the week before Russia acted to stop them) and had also vowed to retake Crimea.

  3. Zelenskys an even bigger puppet than Biden. Just check out his latest green screen boradcast.

    Go on Youtube and look up Zelenskys piano video. Tells you everything.

  4. So much Fox News and News Max sourced misinformation in the comments above. So off the rails and inaccurate, I will not waste my time attempting to correct the misinformation coming from those who just regurgitate the Fox News / Tucker Carlson nonsense that has been debunked from a number of objective sources, including a Russian scientists who have now put their lives at risk calling out the Putin / Fox News propaganda regarding biological weapons labs in Ukraine. Total, utter nonsense. Tom Evslin is right on, Putin has already said (as Tom has highlighted) that he considers the US and NATO nations having committed acts of war upon Russia with the imposed economic sanctions and supplying of armaments to Ukraine. Agree with Tom Evslin 100%. Unfortunately, the new right wing in this country is nothing like it was when my dad was a proud Republican. The conservative flank used to be uber patriotic Americans (for better and worse) and would NEVER have sided with dictators such as Putin and the others that trustfunder Tucker Carlson and the Fox News / News Max nutjobs seem to be so enamored with. Thank you Tom!

    • LOL! Nice to see a member of the flag of the month club on here. This whole thing is a game. Putin’s disconnect from the West is going to cause rampant inflation and destruction of the petrodollar. The WEFs stinky hands are all over this. But don’t worry. You’ll own nothing and be happy.

    • I’m afraid both you the author are captive to a master narrative. A narrative that ignores the fact the US expanded NATO right up to Russia’s border after saying–30 years ago–that we wouldn’t. That ignores the fact that the US backed and aided the 2014 coup that overthrew Ukraine’s president. (It doesn’t matter if that president was pro-Putin; the point is that overthrowing democratically elected leaders shouldn’t be America’s business.) That ignores the fact the US has subsequently trained neo-Nazi militias (see Azov battalion). Don’t believe me? And that those groups have committed relentless aggression against ethnic Russians in Donbass for the past eight years.

      And then there’s the bio-labs, once a conspiracy theory but since admitted to on camera by the Biden Administration’s Under Secretary of State two weeks ago:

      Putin is no teddy bear, and what Russia has done is certainly regrettable, but no one can say with a straight face that his actions were unprovoked. Should JFK have just let the Soviets install missile silos in Cuba?

  5. And Purslane is spewing more falsehoods promoted by the Russian propaganda machine that Putin hasn’t targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Just look to France 24 (French news outlet embedded in Ukraine) and Skynews (German news outlet also with news teams in Ukraine). These stations can be watched via YouTube live stream. Turn off the Fox News / News Max faux news, view these news outlets and see for yourselves. You will see the all too graphic results of Putin’s assault on Ukraine’s cities and civilians Horrific. It is shocking to me how easy it is to lead people in this country down the path of defending the likes of Putin. Hoping Guy Page corrects the record on some of the propaganda that seems to be spilling over into the pages of the Vermont Daily Chronicle.

    • So basically you are saying that Putin is the bad guy… just like the MSM says?
      Good boy (pat, pat.🐕‍🦺)

  6. We know Biden, Kerry, Romney, Pelosi, Clinton, Soros, et al certainly can’t afford to lose Ukraine. They need it badly and NATO is their only chance to start the war to cover the crimes!

  7. This Evslin guy’s absolutely clueless. As were the US gov’t shills who made the “two day,” claim, which was probably nothing more than propaganda aimed at getting people to think Russia was going to be bogged down. They’re not. And they’re certainly acting better with regards to civilians than America ever did in Iraq, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and more, where we generally spend about a month bombing the F out of civilian infrastructure before we ever dare lay boot to ground. This entire debacle is American provoked, going back to the Orange Revolution, the Euromaidan, and good people like Biden & Son. Predictable blowback, and America is in no good position morally, physically, or economically to deal with it. Let’s Go, Brandon!

  8. “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” Dwight Eisenhower January 1961

  9. Yes! I saw Ike’s Farewell Address as a kid & my dad teared up. Evslin– What’s this “We” stuff? You have a mouse in your pocket? We are being shoved into a war by people who LOVE “democracy” SO much they won’t stand for our nat.’l anthem & say WE are a racist kleptocracy? Really? Did you MISS Zelenskyy’s name in the Panama & Pandora papers for offshore millions stashed away? Or that he just BANNED 11 opposition parties, jailed hi opponent, took over ALL the TV stations? Even Abe Lincoln allowed the Democrat party in our Civil War! And how about that NATO? Today is the anniversary of the 1999 Yigoslavia Invasion where we/they RUINED that country followed by Afghanistan, Iraq (100,000 dead civilians), Libya, Syria, etc. ALL left smoking ruins, GREAT for all the arms makers though..And these so-called “sanctions”, don’t many of them not even take effect until JUNE? Write & plead all you want, I have relatives in Zaparozhia, my mom was Ukrainian, & I can see when we’re being spoon-fed propaganda shoving us into hat another war by the same “Generals” who LOST Afghanistan to a bunch of Goat-Ropers. Thanks but NO thanks!

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