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VT Republicans, this will be your challenge in 2026.
by Rob Roper
Nothing good to report for Republicans after yesterday’s off-year elections. The gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, who distanced herself from Trump and was not endorsed by him, lost by fifteen points to an “Orange Man Bad” strategy. The psychopath “two bullets and watch his children die is his arms” Attorney General candidate even won, illustrating that a “Republicans have higher moral principles and don’t endorse murder” counter argument didn’t work.
The socialist-really-communist won in New York’s mayoral race with an anti-Trump plus Free Stuff! message. And Gavin Newsom’s referendum on gerrymandering to take on Trump passed in California.
Excuses can be made in these cases: These are reliably blue electorates (like, cough! Vermont), the Republican candidate in Virginia, Winsome Sears, was weak (although she is the sitting Lieutenant Governor), and the anti-Mamdani vote was split between independent Cuomo and Republican Sliwa (but he still got a hair over 50 percent, so…).
No such excuses can be made, or not nearly to the same extent, in New Jersey, where Trump actively endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli, running for an open seat where he almost knocked off the incumbent four years ago, and where Trump only lost in 2024 by 6 percent, got clobbered by 13 points against a candidate who made her entire campaign about resisting Donald Trump.
Similarly in Pennsylvania, where Trump won in 2024 and was shot at, every single Democrat Judge Republicans – and Trump personally — targeted for removal was reinstated by the voters. Meanwhile in Georgia – Georgia! – two Republican incumbents shockingly lost in statewide races for the Public Services commission.
There are a few possible explanations for this. 1) Trump voters don’t turn out when he is not on the ballot, which is problematic as he will never appear on another ballot ever again. 2) Trump motivates Democrats significantly more than he does Republicans even when he’s not on the ballot. Also problematic. 3) Swing voters, Black and Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2024 are not happy with how he is governing in 2025 and either switched back or stayed home or a combination of that. 4) All of the above. I think it’s 4. And Trump supporters in Vermont need to be realistic about this.
The only good news for Vermont Republicans is that they weren’t up for re-election this year, and they have a year to figure out a plan counter this trend because, oh yes, no doubt this is how VT Democrats will play their hand. Orange Man Bad, and so is every Republican.
I said Republicans had a year figure this out, but not really. More like three weeks when bills for the 2026 legislative session need to be submitted because they better have one highly compelling policy agenda that 1) really, really excites a solid majority of Vermonters even more than they hate Donald Trump. 2) Is hyper-focuses on local issues, and can hold voters’ attention on state issues. 3) Will demonstrably lower the cost and/or improve the standard of living for working people immediately. 4) All of the above.
What are such policies? I have ideas but will save them for later. Here I’ll just offer some free advice that Phil Scott supporters need to be realistic about, and it’s regarding one policy that does not come close to meeting any these criteria: Act 73, the education reform law passed last year and currently under construction for another round of voting next year. If this is your flagship accomplishment (or more likely failed attempt at accomplishing something) going into November 2026, you are… there is no polite term and the only truly accurate one I can think of begins with “f” and ends in “ed.”
Nobody likes let alone is enthusiastic about this redistricting scheme. Most who are aware of it actually hate, nay loathe, some or all of what it does – scaling back or eliminating school choice, closing rural schools, eliminating local school boards, giving up the right to vote on school budgets — and loathe, nay despise, what it doesn’t do – lower anybody’s property taxes.
As the writers over at The Liberal Patriot noted in their analysis of last night’s election results, “It’s not all that surprising that a president who campaigned on tackling inflation but has done little to tame it… faced steep backlash in the first major election of his term.” The same will be true of candidates who ran on lowering Vermonters’ property taxes, but have done little, or indeed nothing, to tame them. Jettison the legislative lemon that is Act 73 while you still can, come up with a different idea ASAP, and spend the next year relentlessly selling it to the people, or you will face a similar backlash.
Republicans, Democrats, and Progressives are all holding their Party reorganization caucuses this week. The Democrats and Progressives are both voting on resolutions to scrap Act 73, and I suspect they will pass. I also suspect that when the legislature returns in January, the Democrat and Progressive caucuses will listen and do just that, leaving Republican legislators holding this bag of politically toxic waste just in time for election season. Don’t walk into this trap!
You can mock the No Kings rallies, but the Left’s base is fired up to strike a blow against Trump. Vermont Republicans need an agenda that fires up their base every bit as much if not more if they want to hold their gains from 2024 and add to them in 2026. If your leaders aren’t thinking in those terms, good luck to the rest of ya!
Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com
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Categories: Commentary, Elections
Orangeman bad (for down ticket Republicans)???
The headline for Rob’s article, which I credit to the VDC editorial staff – not Rob – is in my opinion, a misunderstanding of the article. I don’t think Rob is blaming ‘Orangeman’. It seems to me, just the opposite.
Please correct me if I’m wrong. But Rob said at least one of these Republican candidates – “who distanced herself from Trump and was not endorsed by him, lost by fifteen points to an “Orange Man Bad” strategy.“
The headline should be corrected. My recommendation is a take on the idiom…:
NYC, New Jersey, and Virginia voters make their bed with socialism’s blanket.
Now they must lay in those beds for all to see. As we here in Vermont must also do with the political choices that have given us lawlessness, homelessness, a dysfunctional healthcare system, and a dystopian public education monopoly.
Orangeman bad (for down ticket Republicans)??? “Don’t walk into this trap!”
I agree, Jay. Those “elections” amplify a point by a wiley social media post:
“Without Trump, the republicans are just as pathetic as the democrats.”
No, it was my headline. Whether you love Trump or hate him, his existence does not help down ticket Republicans. There is too much evidence to ignore — from the the Georgia runoff elections in 2020, the fizzled red wave in 2022, the loss of federal house seats in 2024, and, yes we won four senate seats, but we should have won 6 or 7. It doesn’t matter if candidates embrace him like Ciattarelli did, reject him the way Sears did, or, I assume, didn’t do anything one way or the other like the Rs in Georgia who were the first Republicans in 20 years to lose non-federal statewide elections. Polling on the issues in all these races favors Republicans, but it was the anti-Trump “no kings” energy that turned the tide in the wrong direction. Whistle past that graveyard, and you’ll end up buried in it.
I’ll also note that the year Republicans swept all three statewide VA elections and Ciattarelli came within 3 points of taking NJ it was 2021 — the year everyone assumed Trump was done in politics.
Rob;
Do you remember Biden draping the Medal of Freedom over the necks of Ruby Freeman and her daughter? The “water main break”? That was Georgia 2020, up and down the ticket. Detroit. Philly. All of a kind.
The same cheating mechanisms were very much in play in 2022, nationwide, fizzling the anticipated red wave.
Virginia in 2021 was on the wave of anger over a”trans” male repeatedly r*ping girls in high school bathrooms and the dems’ (lack of) response to it. Beyond the chewable margin. And now all those angry federal workers in deep blue northern VA are motivated to vote against the removal of their sinecures.
The 2025 CA results are being contested because of transparent, provable voter fraud, as brilliantly summarized by Caroline Leavitt.
The REAL point, and the provable lesson of 2025 is: ELECTION INTEGRITY. “Whistle past that graveyard, and you’ll end up buried in it.”
People who had voted for President Trump did not change their vote because of his policies and actions, but in a sense voted for the uniparty by staying home in numbers of hundreds of thousands in the Eastern Blue States. Blue States Do Blue. Free stuff on local and State level works great particularly with the indoctrinated <35 year old, which was the majority of Mamdami's electorate. Doesn't help that due to Biden economic and immigration policy the average age of a first time home buyer has risen to the unprecedented 40 years of age feeding right into the free or extremely low price housing promise in NYC
Tyler, Election Integrity. Way ahead of you. https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61580274392612
Rob,
I don’t do facebook. If you’re not paying for it, you’re the product.
And, Rob, with all due respect, it’s damned presumptuous to say you’re “way ahead of you”.
When have you called this issue out? Were you at the election integrity meetings with Ivan Raiklin and current congressional candidates?
Mark crispin Miller? Jonathan Simon? Electionjusticeusa.org?
You are not ahead of me on this issue. Take your assumptions to the outhouse.
And finally, everybody:
If you think casting a vote on a computerized machine made by a company named DOMINION makes a whiff of difference in the outcome, I have a bridge in Winooski to sell to you. Wake up.
Tyler, I’ve been fighting for election integrity for a couple of decades now, going back to my time as VTGOP chair. At Ethan Allen Institute, I made it an issue as soon as the idea of mailing ballots out regardless of request became a thing. Here’s the video I put together on the subject back in 2021. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB6UOMxpZcY
Re: “Whether you love Trump or hate him, his existence does not help down ticket Republicans.”
Rob, I’m disappointed by your remarks.
First: It’s not that you ‘hate’ Trump (your words – and your projection). It’s that your myopic sensibility sees the only alternative point of view as to ‘love Trump’ (again, your words). No middle ground. No pragmatic considerations. It’s either perfection or hating Trump for you.
Again, as Michael J. Fox opined, I too am careful not to confuse excellence with perfection. Excellence I can strive for. Perfection is God’s work.
The point is, flawed as he may be, Trump is the man for the season. No one else comes close. Trump is Eisenhower’s General George Patton. The bull in the China shop, breaking a few eggs to make the omelet.
Second: You apparently don’t see the forest for the trees. While you were spot on when you referenced “The gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, who distanced herself from Trump and was not endorsed by him, lost by fifteen points to an “Orange Man Bad” strategy.” – you now digress back into the ‘hate Orangeman’ routine.
What these elections, and your remarks, tell me is that TDS is real.
As with Patton, who commanded Operation Torch in North Africa against Rommel, led the 7th Army conquests in Italy, directed the record breaking Third Army exploits across France, and, most notably, relieved the besieged town of Bastogne during the Battle of the Bulge, he is almost better known for a controversial incident where he slapped a soldier suffering from PTSD (perhaps an affliction similar to TDS).
Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. You may not like the methodology. But our borders are finally secure. Cities are becoming safer. Immigration is under control. Human trafficking has been stopped, not to mention the flow of fentanyl. The economy has, at least, been stabilized. And Trump’s use of tariffs has resulted in dozens of treaties and agreements that level the world’s playing field – all in a mere nine-month period, and despite TDS resistance.
Does all of this necessarily mean the electorate is now enlightened? Hardly. NYC, New Jersey, and Virginia voters made their bed with socialism’s blanket. Now they must lay in those beds for all to see – as we here in Vermont must also do with the political choices that have given us lawlessness, homelessness, a dysfunctional healthcare system, and a dystopian public education monopoly.
I get it, Rob. You hate Trump. No matter how successful he may be. And so, too, do many other so-called Republicans hate Trump, apparently falling into ‘the trap’ of your own making.
Do I think Trump will ultimately be successful? Not really. It’s a 50-50 call at best. But it’s not ‘Orangeman bad’. It’s our indoctrinated electorate that’s become dependent on government handouts… handouts that are, otherwise, fraudulent, wasteful, abusive, and bankrupting us.
We’ve watched too many Disney movies. The life of Bambi is not reality. The world is a dangerous, brutal place. If you think Orangeman is bad, just wait for Mumdumbi’s governance. At least NYC now provides us what U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis (a democrat, by the way) said… “… one of the happy incidents of the federal system that a single courageous State may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory; and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country.” Would anyone care to bet on NYC’s outcome?
Lastly, Rob, you present no reasonable alternative to your hateful rhetoric. As with John Rogers, Phil Scott, and all the others… all we have from you now is a word salad… with no tangible nutrition.
I have one question H. Jay… you said Human trafficking has stopped, REALLY?
Rob,
That’s a nice video about mail-in ballots in Vt. Bravo. 2021.
I have a 96- page report from Electionjusticeusa from 2016 about the myriad ways HRC stole the nomination from BS, and mail in voting wasn’t even a thing yet. (A precursory search makes it seem to have been scrubbed from the internet…)
Ask Guy for my contact info, and I’ll be glad to send it to you.
Mail-in fraud is just one head of the election stealing hydra.
The fact that you are aware of at least this rudimentary fraud, yet make policy and personnel decisions based upon the outcomes of these obviously rigged “elections”, without caveats, is damning.
organicjude: Re: Human Trafficking
Good point. I should have said ‘nearly stopped’. Although, if asked to prove that human trafficking since January 2025 is ongoing, and not stopped altogether, I would be hard pressed to do so. While we have reports from the DOJ’s Joint Task Force Alpha (JTFA) and NGOs like the National Human Trafficking Hotline, the reports reference past human trafficking.
Nevertheless, human trafficking is only now being robustly prosecuted, as opposed to the previous administration, for example, reportedly losing track of approximately 300,000 unaccompanied minors who illegally crossed out borders.
Again, while I try to be careful not to confuse excellence with perfection, I should be more careful with my choice of words. Thus, I think it’s important to see that, relative to the circumstances experienced under the ‘autopen’ administration, today’s human trafficking has ‘nearly stopped’.
Jay, I do not hate Donald Trump. I see politicians as tools to enact policies that I want to see enacted. Like a manager on a baseball team looking at pitching matchups, I ask “Is the player likely to succeed in this situation.” I would not put a fastball pitcher in to face a guy who feasts on fastballs. I would pinch run a fast but weak hitter for a great hitter if I needed a stolen base in the late innings. So, Donald Trump has done great in the situation of closing the border. He has done very well with Israel and Hamas. I like the aggressive action against drug dealers. I am not a fan of tariffs (they are a tax on imports that consumers pay), he is too “hands on/big government” in too many areas of the economy for my tastes, and his personality is such that he turns off a huge swath of voters that otherwise, IMHO, would vote Republican. Did you see the commercial Kathy Hochel launched against Elise Stefanik? Trump, Trump, Trump. That is the strategy Democrats are going to empoy against Republicans in 2026, and if you want to pretend that it’s not effective you’re not dealing with reality. Yes, the candidate in VA who distanced herself from Trump lost by 15. They guy in NJ who tied himself to Trump lost by 13. How do you explain that? In both cases the anti-Trump strategy worked. When you want to close the border, Trump is your guy. But if you’re looking for help in down ticket elections, the man is a disaster. I’m happy to consider evidence to the contrary, but the election results speak for themselves. If Republicans don’t find an effective counter to this they will get beat badly in 2026.
A little off topic, but if people say that Trump wants to be Hitler, then does that mean that Jay Jones wants to be Charles Manson?
Jay Jones turns my stomach. A very vile man.
And what Vermont senator just said in a press conference that the democrats need to keep the government closed forever??? Do Vermonters know this??? Do they even care?
I’m still at odds with democrats celebrating the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Democrats will continue to hate and advance violence as their agenda in an effort to destroy this country by destroying the constitution. Then we will truly be socialists ( which has never worked in any country it was tried.) I’m not afraid of President Trump-he’s trying to save this country bringing in trillions of dollars from businesses who are going to bring jobs back into our country. Is Vermont going to have new businesses coming in with hundreds of jobs???? I doubt it.
What did Biden do but make us weak, close to bankruptcy, and a pawn in chinas hand for doing back room energy dealings with Hunter and chi. The Dems would have been blackmailed into keeping the dealings secret. That laptop is a gift that keeps on giving—- Isn’t it funny Pelosi is retiring now. Even she sees the writing on the wall!!
She’s probably retiring now because she’s 85 years old!
Trump has done very little to attract voters who disagree with him, yet plenty to scare away voters who used to agree with him. I’ve met way more people in person and online who voted for him but are now against him. I can’t think of anyone who said “I wished I had voted for trump.” So his constituency is in decline. And with it goes candidates who support him. A trump endorsement is not a good thing.
Can’t say that I heard anyone say “I wish I’d voted for Autopen.”
I am still 100% Trump if that helps. And the enemy of my friend is my enemy.
Dan, I agree with you. Well said.
First time I ever voted in a presidential election, was in 1972 and chose Richard Nixon, who won all but 15 electoral votes. He didn’t work out too well and I think it’s all gone downhill from there.
So this is all B.S.
Want to know the most effective way to win over people, in the most liberal of all liberal environments? Do you know what is the most liberal, biggest cancel culture, biggest indoctrination center for marxism?
College Campus.
The Truth, give with a loving spirit is unconquerable.
So much so, they have to assassinate you in public to silence and take over the organization.
The winning message and what blesses our country is pretty basic.
1) American is blessed to be the greatest country on earth.
2) Our form of governance is the best so far.
3) Free enterprise, capitalism is the greatest game for getting people out of poverty.
The biggest strength of Charlie Kirk was his love, the biggest thorn, the absolute fear of the uniparty and their kryptonite, is peace and love, people coming together. This is why we have division by design.
We need three simple clear messages for Vermont. The problems are legion, they have not changed but only gotten worse, many of us know, by design.
Vermont is a subverted state, a colony of the united nations (uniparty)
1) We are unaffordable (many areas)
2) We have epic drug, theft and alcohol problems.
3) We have a disastrous school system.
This is the winning message across all walks of life, because it effects everyone.
Clear loving message and a ground game. That is the winning combination.
TGBTG
Sadly, the announcement of the Trump administration, talking about a deal with Ely Lily for a reduction in cost of the weight loss drugs, may well indicate President Trump is now compromised too.
This is garbage, spun garbage, owned by big pharma, he appears to be. Of course, his life and the life of his family is very much in jeopardy if he doesn’t’ play ball with the uniparty.
Excuse me, as i have to put another stick of wood into my wood stove and it may be a long cold winter for the Snap people. Never fear, the State of Vermont will steal other funds and backfill the lose of the SNAP FUNDS. Hope you deer hunters have good luck. Comment from Richard Day.
Removing Paul Dame would be the first step, Scott the second.
Just think if we listened to everyone who has bashed president Trump, we wouldn’t have America today…
It’s because of ignorance that people vote the way they do…
There are far too many factors that affect these people and what they think about america that affects their vote… Indoctrination about the best president in history, President Trump and America being a terrible place, are the things that affect these fools that would elect a muslim.And these other people who have absolutely no concern for our country…
Rob, you never mention a thing about THE TURNCOAT PHIL SCOTT AND PAUL DAME SELLING VERMONTERS IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OUT TO THE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY.
WE DON’T HAVE A REPUBLICAN PARTY IN THE STATE OF VERMONT…
I admire president Trump for doing the things necessary to keep america on track…
It’s pretty sad when our governor thought Harris would be the proper choice to do these things…
I’ve been a lifelong resident of this day and i’ve never seen such a spectacle that we call the republican party… It’s time to stop making excuses for what is going on in this state and blame it on the president.
Richard, Whatever Dame and Scott have done and said had absolutely nothing to do with the election results in VA, NJ, PA, GA, CA…. We can either learn lessons from what happened in those races and come up with counter strategies to win in 2026, or not — and lose ourselves in 2026. VT Republicans won uniquely big in 2024 by hyper-focusing on the local state issues of property taxes and energy policy. Let’s forget that lesson either.
BS Rob,
republicans won on the coattails of immigration, inflation, and injections. Then there was the local tax increase as well. If the VT GOP had been in alignment, you’d be looking at a 50/50 VT House, at least.
But Noooooo!!! Orangeman Bad!!
God help you, because you’re not helping yourselves or the people you say you represent.
Richard is absolutely correct.
The VT GOP sold us out and flouted the Nuremberg Code to get the vax rate to 80%. We will NEVER forget.
Voting them out is not enough.
And Rob, the lesson of the “elections” of 2025 is: Blue states are going to vote blue. So will Vermont.
Marginalize DJT and his 8 peace deals, and heckle JD Vance’s family at your peril. Karma is beautiful.