Sharp dip in governor’s popularity among Republicans

By Guy Page

A new University of New Hampshire poll reveals that Vermont Governor Phil Scott’s job approval rating has fallen to a new low – especially among Republicans – even as he maintains an early lead in his bid for a sixth term. 

The latest Green Mountain State Poll also shows that in the Republican primary for the state’s at-large U.S. congressional seat, retired U.S. Army officer Gerald Malloy of Perkinsville holds a big lead over fellow Republican Mark Coester, with almost a third of respondents saying they are undecided.

According to the poll, 51% of Vermonters approve of Governor Scott’s job performance, while 43% disapprove. While the five-term incumbent known as ‘the most popular governor in America’ has a net approval rating that remains positive at +8, this is the lowest level recorded since the University of New Hampshire Survey Center began asking the question in April 2022.

The decline is primarily attributed to a sharp drop in support from members of his own party. Approval among Vermont Republicans fell from 76% in January to 57% in June. 

In contrast, Scott enjoys approval from 51% of Democrats and 42% of Independents.

Despite these dipping numbers, Scott remains the favorite in potential general election matchups. He leads prospective Democratic challengers Amanda Janoo (42% to 27%) and Aly Richards (41% to 25%), both of whom are currently unknown to most Democratic primary voters.

Malloy dominates GOP congressional primary

In the race to challenge incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Becca Balint, Gerald Malloy has established a significant lead over Mark Coester for the Republican nomination. Among likely Republican primary voters:

• Gerald Malloy: 48%
• Mark Coester: 19%
• Undecided: 32%

Malloy’s lead is bolstered by strong support from conservative voters, 54% of whom favor him for the nomination. While Coester is supported by 13% of moderates, the majority of moderate Republican voters (57%) remain undecided.

Malloy has a net favorability rating of +32 (43% favorable to 11% unfavorable), whereas Coester’s net favorability sits at +15 (24% favorable to 9% unfavorable). The poll indicates that both he and Coester trail Congresswoman Balint in general election matchups.

Former LG leads Democrat primary

Former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray holds a commanding early lead in the Democratic primary for Vermont lieutenant governor, according to new polling, although a large share of voters remain undecided.

The survey found that 39% of likely Democratic primary voters would support Gray if the election were held today. Esther Charlestin, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2024, received 11% support, while former congressional aide Ryan McLaren drew 7%. One percent backed another candidate, and 42% of respondents said they remain undecided.

The poll also highlighted differences among ideological groups. Gray leads with 57% support among self-described moderates and 50% among liberals. Among socialists, Gray receives 34%, compared with 26% for Charlestin and 13% for McLaren. More than half of self-identified progressives, 55%, remain undecided, suggesting the race could shift significantly as the campaign develops.

Voters say Vermont ‘on the wrong track’ 

The shifts in candidate popularity come at a time of growing dissatisfaction with the state’s trajectory. The poll found that 49% of Vermonters believe the state is on the “wrong track,” while only 33% believe it is headed in the “right direction”. This sentiment is starkly divided by party lines, with 83% of Republicans and 56% of Independents viewing the state as being on the wrong track, compared to 52% of Democrats who believe it is headed in the right direction.