October state revenue higher than expectations – which were set very low, administration says

By Guy Page on November 20, 2020

The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were $18.27 million, or 10.1%, above expectations in October.

General Fund revenues collected for the month totaled $118.04 million, or $4.63 million above the monthly consensus revenue target, which is tied to the annual consensus revenue forecast adopted by the Emergency Board on August 12, 2020.

Suzanne Young, Agency of Administration Secretary

In the fiscal year to date, General Fund revenues exceed their target by $53.89 million, or 8.46%. Secretary Young explained: “Higher than anticipated revenue in the General Fund, while certainly welcome, is based on a substantially reduced revenue target adopted in August due to the pandemic. Lingering effects of the strong economy prior to COVID are carrying into the early part of the 2020 fiscal year, however we are braced for more sobering fiscal results immediately ahead of us.”

The Transportation Fund was $3.27 million, or 14.83%, above expectations for the month, bringing in $25.32 million. Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax drove this additional revenue, bringing in $2.64 million, or 44.09%, above expectation. Year-to-date, the Transportation Fund revenue is slightly above target: $5.22 million, or 5.94% above the consensus forecast.

The Education Fund was $10.38 million, or 22.57%, above its monthly target, having collected $56.37 million for the month. The largest driver of this additional revenue was the Sales and Use Tax, which came in $8.83 million, or 23.34%, above expectations. Year-to-date, the Education Fund is $23.72 million, or 13.12%, above consensus forecast.

In the first four months of the fiscal year, the three Funds have exceeded the August consensus revenue forecast by $82.83 million. “While we are pleased to have had the wind at our back over the past several months, evidence suggests this situation will not continue through the remaining eight months of this fiscal year. Our revenue is still substantially below the pre-COVID revenue forecast for the State, and difficult and uncertain economic circumstances lay ahead due to the pandemic,” concluded Secretary Young.