Will Burlington’s somewhat conservative, blue-dog Democrat New North End, turn full Progressive?

by Kolby LaMarche

Burlington’s New North End (NNE), that is Wards 4 and 7, often regarded as the City’s last remaining somewhat conservative, blue-dog Democrat area, may just turn Progressive on Tuesday, Town Meeting Day.

Historically, the New North End has elected figures like Republican Kurt Wright as both city councilor and state representative. And favored independent and moderate leftist candidates such as Mark Barlow over a Democrat/Progressive contender.

To give you a sense of just how conservative the NNE is compared to the city at-large, on March 3, 2020, Burlington participated in both a municipal election as well as a presidential primary.

Very few Republicans in the city voted.

Except in Wards 4 and 7, Republican turnout in Ward 4 was more than 17 times greater than in Ward 8, known as Burlington’s “student ward”.

You might be familiar with the phrase “October Surprise,” where a crucial and election-shaping incident transpires shortly before an election.

Burlington’s 7th Ward finds itself amidst a February Surprise may, in-part, truly shake things up.

During a Wards 4 & 7 Neighborhood Planning Assembly on Wednesday, February 28th, a candidate forum took place, showcasing both school board candidates and council candidates.

In attendance was Progressive council contender Lee Morrigan. But notably absent was Evan Litwin, Morrigan’s Democratic opponent.

Unfortunately, this isn’t Litwin’s first absence from significant public engagements, he also missed the first televised debate of the cycle.

During a period of Q&A, one resident levied a serious allegation against Litwin. Despite being absent and having no surrogate present, forum moderators permitted the question to be asked.

The resident accused, to a packed room of attentive voters, Litwin of saying, “a ‘hard n-word’ involved in such a super racist manner, acting like he was black vocally,” with the resident further asking present candidates, “is this sort of behavior acceptable? And how do we foster a community free of hate?”

Progressive Morrigan then wasted no time in responding, jumping into a long tirade about trans joy, deconstructing whiteness, and saying on Litwin’s comment, “white people cannot say the n-word, full stop.”

Lee Morrigan | Town Meeting TV

Today marks more than 48 hours after the allegation was made.

Litwin still has not released any public comment about the allegation and has provided no response to Burning Sky when asked. Furthermore, I know of numerous concerned voters who have contacted Evan, to no reply.

This is, of course, merely an allegation.

But in 2024, this gives certain voters more than enough ground to permanently shun and convict Litwin of the charge, maybe even choosing to change their vote.

This can, and most certainly will in some way, hurt Litwin’s candidacy.

In the same way we should analyze and attempt to make sense of the allegation itself, we must wonder too of any motive.

As Burning Sky has documented before, Lee Morrigan is adept in the art of political opportunism, making spectacles to later use as political capital. Agree, or not, Morrigan is greatly talented in appealing to voters in this way. Something Litwin seems unable to do.

We have seen this in Morrigan’s court battle against the Washington County State’s Attorney.

It is fair, given Lee Morrigan’s past, to question what – if any – connections Morrigan has to the allegations and the resident who made them.

It was during my time as manager of Alec Stith’s campaign in Ward 7 that incumbent Councilor Ali Dieng (I) had been spreading a false rumor, both privately and publicly, that Stith was a white supremacist. Even twice impling it during a televised debate, never explaining the accusation.

These acts of disinformation happen. They happen in Ward 7, particularly. And they have real consequences.

Politics, as currently structured, is as much a money game as it is a numbers game. During Stith’s campaign in Ward 7, we raised close to $16k, with our opponent – Ali Dieng – raking in just a quarter of our total according to disclosures, and yet we still lost by just two votes.

According to financial disclosures released on February 24th, 2024, Litwin raised a total of $5,851, spending $5,199, with the vast majority of donors either living out of the ward, or, disgustingly, out of the state.

Morrigan raised a whopping $10,266, spending $8,766.

Litwin’s campaign finances appear precarious, lacking real robust support. Perhaps the failing, as a first time candidate, of the Burlington Democratic leadership.

The disparity in financial health between the two campaigns underscores Litwin’s challenge: has he contacted the voters, the right voters, he needs to win. And will they stay energized to vote for him?

Fun Fact: In Ward 3, Democrat Malik Mines, now a write-in candidate, failed to submit the required signatures for ballot inclusion.

Yet he has still amassed more campaign funds than Litwin, as revealed in a March 1st disclosure. Ward 3, a Progressive stronghold, is extremely unlikely to elect a Democrat.

New North End residents bring new flavors to the neighborhood – VTDigger
Butter Bar & Kitchen, located in the NNE | VTDigger
As the political climate intensifies in the New North End, the specter of the February Surprise looms, as well as the grim showing of Litwin’s finances.

Ward 7 has never truly been a secure council seat for Democrats, anyway.

Councilor Ali Dieng, who recently endorsed Morrigan, has had a fluid alignment between Democrats and Progressives on any given issue on council.

But, if Morrigan is elected, Burlington Progressives would have a new, startling foothold not only in the New North End, but the wider Burlington politic as well.

If Burlington Democrats fail to secure the Ward 7 council seat, the implications could reverberate across the city and, especially, for a likely Democrat, Joan Shannon, as mayor.

Will the allegations against Litwin damage his candidacy in the closing days of this election? Will the last remaining conservative center of Burlington die with a sad whimper? And who will, in 4 days time, be on the council representing the good people of Ward 7.

Vote.

Burning Sky is dedicated to providing critique and commentary on the issues of the day from an unapologetic perspective, fueling change in the heart of Vermont. Authored by Kolby LaMarche every Saturday.