by Compass Vermont

Canadian credit card spending in Vermont was up 28% in August compared with a year earlier, according to the state Agency of Commerce and Community Development. Through July, Vermont’s goods exports to Canada were down 27% from the same months of 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures compiled by Fromerica, an export-data site. Goods exports are physical products shipped across the border, not tourism or services.

Jasper Hill Farm in Greensboro, one of Vermont’s best-known cheesemakers, shows what that gap looks like for one business. Co-founder Mateo Kehler told CTV News Ottawa, in a story published Oct. 5, that the company’s Canadian sales “went from gangbusters to zero cases.” He put the loss at hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Canadian Visitors Are Returning, but From a Deep Hole

The state’s latest figures, updated Sept. 28, show Canadian visitors returning on every measure it tracks:

• Canadian card spending in Vermont was up 28% in August and 18% for the year to date, compared with 2025.
• About 276,000 passengers crossed into Vermont from Canada in August, up 9.2% from August 2025. For the year, crossings are up 7.1%.
• On a three-month average, the share of Canadians who say they expect to visit Vermont in the next 12 months rose from 7% in July 2025 to 18% this August.

That is a rebound, not a recovery. The state notes that 2025 was a badly depressed comparison year: Canadian card spending in Vermont fell 47% from 2024. If August 2025 was down about as much as the full year, this August’s Canadian spending was still only about two-thirds of what Canadians spent in August 2024.

The Lake Champlain Chamber told CTV it does not expect Canadian leaf-peepers to return this fall. The state’s numbers show the return had already started through August. They don’t show whether that held into foliage season. The state’s next survey of Canadian travel plans is due in December.

Vermont’s Sales to Canada Are Not Rebounding

Canada is Vermont’s biggest foreign customer by far. It bought about $635 million of Vermont goods in 2025, 31% of everything the state exported. Through July 2026, that trade was down 27% from a year earlier. Vermont’s exports to all countries were down 15% over the same months.

The timing matters. That 27% drop came before the latest U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect Aug. 22, and before Canada’s matching tariffs on American goods took effect Sept. 8. Whatever caused the decline, the newest tariffs did not.

More than half of what Vermont sells Canada is farm and forest products. The Canadian Embassy’s Vermont fact sheet, based on 2025 Census data, puts agriculture at 38% and forest products, including paper, at 18%. The largest categories:

• Cocoa and chocolate: $129 million
• Paper and paperboard: $77 million
• Dairy products, eggs and honey: $36 million
• Pasta, breads and cereal products: $29 million
• Wood: $29 million

Aircraft and parts, which fell sharply in Vermont’s worldwide exports this year, were only $11 million of the Canadian total.

The Census Bureau counts an export from the state where it begins its trip out of the country, which is not always where it was made.

Why Jasper Hill’s Canadian Market Hasn’t Come Back

Jasper Hill’s Canadian business had been growing quickly, mostly in Quebec and Ontario. Kehler told CTV that orders stopped in 2025, after President Donald Trump began talking about Canada as the “51st state” and imposing tariffs, and have not returned more than a year later.

Now a tariff stands in the way of a return. A retaliatory tariff is a tax one country puts on another country’s goods in response to that country’s tariffs. The importer pays it, which makes the foreign product more expensive on the shelf.

When Compass reported on Canada’s planned retaliation Aug. 22, dairy was one of the six sectors Prime Minister Mark Carney named. Vermont shipped about $7 million in cheese and curd to Canada in 2024. Which Vermont products would be hit depended on product codes Ottawa had not yet published. Canada’s final list answered that question: a 25% tariff on American cheese and 50% on milk powder and whey.

The trade fight also hits Jasper Hill coming the other way. Kehler told CTV the company is paying more for equipment because of tariffs.

What Each Government Says

The White House says its tariffs respond to Canada’s discriminatory treatment of American products. It cites Canadian tariffs and quotas on American cars, provinces pulling American alcohol off store shelves, and what it calls a protectionist dairy system. Canada limits dairy imports with quotas and steep tariffs on anything above them.

Canada says its Sept. 8 tariffs match the American ones dollar for dollar, with each product’s rate set to the U.S. rate on the same kind of goods.

Kehler told CTV that Jasper Hill is building new markets elsewhere. He also said he understands why Canadians are spending their money at home, and that he would probably do the same in their place.

A Canadian who drives to Vermont this fall pays no tariff to visit. A Canadian importer who buys Vermont cheese now pays 25% on top of the price.