by Elizabeth Brown

Fiscal Alliance Foundation released “Locked In, a new study of Proposal 3″ by political scientists William Ruger and Jason Sorens. It builds on our first study, *The High Stakes of Proposal 3”, released in September.

Our first study showed where Vermont stands. Private-sector jobs fell 0.6% over the last decade while Right to Work states grew 17.2%. Wages, adjusted for cost of living, are higher in right to work states, and private investment is significantly higher. Given these facts, why would Vermont pursue a Constitutional Amendment that would put more pressure on our already struggling economy?

This study looks ahead. It puts numbers on what Proposal 3 would do here.

What would it cost taxpayers?

Public-sector costs could rise $53 million to $135 million a year. Over ten years, that is as much as $1.35 billion.

Nationally, public-sector collective bargaining already adds $600 to $750 per person a year to the cost of government. Proposal 3 would add union leverage on top of that and take away the Legislature’s tools to contain it.

What would it do to jobs?

A review of the research cited in the study found 25 studies showing unionization reduces employment. Two found the opposite.

Seven studies looked at whether unionized businesses survive. All seven found they close more often.

Manufacturing employment runs one-third higher over the long run in Right to Work states. Vermont’s has been shrinking at 1.5 times the national rate.

On Vermont’s farms, a union wage premium would add $14 million to $22 million a year in labor costs. A dairy farmer cannot raise the price of milk to cover it.

What is at legal risk?

The authors find the “interferes with, negates, or diminishes” test reaches laws already on the books. Any Vermont law that limits who can bargain, what can be bargained or how a union election is run could be challenged in court.

That includes the statewide health benefit system for school employees, the new minimum class sizes and the limits on public employee strikes. Given that Vermont has the most labor statutes per capita, many of these laws could be questioned. Nothing would be repealed automatically. As we have seen in Illinois, the judiciary system would decide what stands, with lawsuits funded by taxpayer dollars.

Why does it matter now?

In our poll, 61% of Vermont voters say their income is not keeping up with costs. The first study showed what Vermonters are already paying by living in a highly unionized state. This one shows what Proposal 3 would add.

Higher taxes. Higher cost of living. Fewer job opportunities. Less business investment. Less choice. And all of it locked in.

READ THE NEW STUDY → https://fiscalalliancefoundation.org/proposal3/

READ OUR FIRST STUDY → https://fiscalalliancefoundation.org/prop3/

My interview on the Morning Drive with Kurt and Anthony on WVMT this morning → https://p.ftur.io/wvmt/3058

I am happy to walk you through the findings, and please pass this along to anyone who should see it before November 3.