by Aaron Warner
Despite massive support from legacy and social media the political landscape is moving away from Democrats and Joe Biden, according to recent polls conducted by the Wall Street Journal, Gallup and the Associated Press.
As of 2004 nearly a third of voters settled into either Republican, Democrat or Independent categories. As of this year nearly fifty percent (49%) of Americans will vote as Independents, with the two major parties dropping down to twenty-five percent each. Analysts believe this indicates implicit disapproval of the two-party system where both parties have become more tribal and politically adversarial rather than beholden to voters and their needs.
The WSJ poll found the economy as the most important issue to all registered voters, especially Republicans. From a list of thirty-three areas of concern ranging from immigration to far-left and far right movements, climate change and racial issues, the economy and immigration ranked the highest among all registered voters polled, which was consistent with registered Republicans.
The AP Poll, conducted by the University of Chicago on behalf of the Associated Press and Fox News, revealed these Independents still slightly favor Democrats to Republicans mainly due to lack of Republicans’ ability to clearly identify their plans to deal with the nation’s issues. However the trend shows the nation of Independents moving strongly in the direction of Republicans over the last two years going from a 15% preference to Dems now down to just 4%.
Another dramatic realignment among the two parties is the shift in working class voters to Republican. The 9 of the 10 wealthiest districts in the US (mostly California, New York and D.C.) still favor voting Democrat, however the middle to lower income voters align with conservatives. Given the overwhelming concern with the economy this bodes well for conservative candidates who can articulate winning strategies to improve the current cost of living woes.
Looking to the presidential candidates we see a tie between Donald Trump and Joe Biden for approval and disapproval among registered voters. Both candidates receive relatively low favorability at 39% “totally approve” rating. However Biden is overwhelmingly considered unfit to serve a second term with nearly three-quarters (74%) of the nation believing he is “too old” and sixty-percent stating he is not “mentally fit” for the office. Trump’s approval in these areas hovers around fifty-percent favorability.
Among the other presidential hopefuls with significant approval are Ron Desantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who sees a 35% approval rating from Democrats but 49% with Republicans. Kennedy’s approval among Democrat voters is only one-percentage point ahead of Kamala Harris. Other possible Democrat nominees such as Gavin Newsome and Michelle Obama were not mentioned. Desantis’ approval among Republicans who will vote in the primary was higher than Trump’s in April of this year (84% to 78%) but has fallen behind as of August (75% to 70%). National polls however show he still lags behind Trump by nearly 50 points as the Republican nominee with the rest of the field even further back.
The recent indictments of Donald Trump reveal that one-third (33%) of Americans believe it is both politically motivated and without merit while another third (34%) believe it is legitimate and not politically motivated, with another 22% sayings its legitimate but also politically motivated. 61% of Republicans believe it is illegitimate and politically motivated. A breakdown of each indictment (1) taking classified documents and obstructing efforts to get them back (2) attempt to overturn the election (3) conspiracy to reverse the election, reveals virtually the same picture – a third each believing it’s illegitimate and political or legitimate and not politically motivated with roughly 70% of Republicans believing it’s the former.
The recent call to impeach Joe Biden sees 46% of registered voters strongly disapproving it with another 32% in favor of it. This may be as a result of impeachment fatigue, economic woes and fears of resources wasted in congress while the country and world are in apparent high states of turmoil and not because Joe Biden hasn’t done anything worthy of impeachment. Why? 45-50% of those same voters believe Biden is either “corrupt” or did “something illegal”. With the story relating to his son Hunter’s laptop 34% of registered voters saying they are less likely to vote for Biden if the allegations are true.
The war in Ukraine has become increasingly unpopular with all voters. 38% of Americans now believe we are “doing too much” to help the Ukrainians up from just 6% in March.
Analysis for a Joe Biden presidency
None of the numbers look good for Joe Biden to repeat as president of the United States. The demographic numbers are all moving away from the Democratic party to either the middle or right of center. Even his constituents overwhelmingly suggest he is either too old (74%) or mentally unfit (60%) and the evidence mounts daily as Biden famously wanders of both physically and verbally at nearly every public event. With the Republican party now holding sway with the middle and lower income voter and an economy moving Americans into that group daily the picture looks bleak for another Biden term in office. Even the defense of Biden by his media paratroopers hasn’t been able to sway public opinion to help retain legitimacy. If you thought his purported record 81 million votes in 2020 was unlikely it will take every act of political legerdemain known to man to prop him up again.
The anti-Trump strategy
The Democrats have made their strategy to defeat Donald Trump, if he is the nominee, crystal clear. Character assassination in the media along with removal from the ballots in every state they can pull it off. If prison doesn’t work then some suggest an actual assassination, but we’ll have to wait and see. As they did in 2020 the cable/tv media will mobilize yet again to denounce Trump 24/7. Facebook and Google will massage social media and internet traffic as much as humanly possible to impair Republican campaigns. They obviously don’t have a pro-Biden voter base, let alone favorability among all voters, so the tactic becomes “anyone but Trump”. Toss in some lockdowns over a now weakening virus that really only threatens a tiny percentage of the population and a call for more mail in ballots and you can see the numbers hopping up like a bar graph in the middle of the night. Sprinkle in some political mules to carry the load and put the teenager voter alongside the illegal immigrant voter and you have the icing on the half-baked cake that is Democrat party legitimacy.
Whether the numbers show it, or you know it or not, Donald Trump and MAGA are an “existential threat to our Democracy”. Therefore, the ends justify the means.
Buckle up folks, the road to the 2024 elections is looking to be a very bumpy ride.
Categories: News Analysis