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Thinktank: “Policymakers should proceed with caution” concerning migration trends
By Michael Bielawski
Campaign for Vermont Prosperity released a report last week on interstate migration patterns using data from the U.S. Census and Internal Revenue Service. Ultimately not enough new people are moving in to offset the older population who are dying.
The number of people moving in is “insufficient to keep pace with the deficit of deaths to births,” according to their presser. And it is “contributing to the state’s demographic problems.”
The 26-page report can be read here. It concludes, “With little international immigration into Vermont and with deaths exceeding births, domestic migration does play an important role in Vermont’s overall population growth, or lack of growth, and the ability of businesses, non-profits, and government to accomplish their goals.”
Vermont economist Art Woolf authored the report, he urged that policymakers should focus on “longer-term trends for a better look at any patterns of migration.” He continues, “This is particularly true during the pandemic timeframe when migration patterns departed from their historical trends.”
He added that the trends from during COVID-19 “had mostly run their course.”
The stats are concerning when examining income trends because those moving in on average are making less money than those who are leaving. During COVID-19, this trend reversed but analysts are unsure if this will continue.
The report states, “Vermont’s population growth is very low, which has contributed to a stagnant labor force, making it difficult for current and potential employers to find workers. There are more births than deaths and international immigration is low. From 2000 to 2023 more people have left Vermont than moved into the state.”
“Rebalancing our incentive programs”
Housing availability will continue to be a challenge, and new housing may target specific sectors of the workforce.
“There are real demographic issues that our state is facing and focusing on availability of housing and rebalancing our incentive programs to target specific occupations that are critical to our social infrastructure should be the priority,” the presser states.
CFV President Pat McDonald added, “The demographic challenges in Vermont are not improving and we believe the inaccessibility of housing is preventing more young people from moving here or staying here.”
She suggested that an unwise tax policy could hurt the state. She said, “Adding tax surcharges for the wealthy also does not seem to be the answer as there are real questions about tax flight and what that might do to our overall tax base and the state’s revenue streams.”
“Proceed with caution”
The presser continues, “At the same time, it is unclear how mobile high-income earners are in a post-covid world and policymakers should proceed with caution when considering additional revenue from these taxpayers.”
It states that “Census and IRS data needs to be used and interpreted with care since both underlying sources of migration data were likely influenced by temporary population movements due to the Covid pandemic.”
The report itself states that this trend will continue if policy changes aren’t made.
“Vermont’s slow population growth over the past two decades is unlikely to change unless the state experiences many more people moving in than has been the experience of the last two decades,” it states.
The report found that before COVID-19 the age groups with net in-migration were among 26-45-year-olds, with a net migration of plus 208. However, for those under age 26 migration was negative 507.
“Further, the report found that only 4% of Vermont’s population is comprised of immigrants, compared to an average of 14% nationally,” the presser states.
The author is a writer for the Vermont Campaign for Vermont
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Categories: Society & Culture, State Government
People who come to the country, legally or illegally have a choice of any state in the country to go. Vermont, in its infinite wisdom, provides protection for people coming illegally, also for dealing drugs and committing violent crime, but that’s another discussion.
The migrants who want a family, choose NOT to come to Vermont despite the perks in place waiting for them. Why? Because Vermont is not a safe place to raise a family.
It is a very safe place to deal drugs and commit crime, hence the huge boost in crime and drug use.
Every Vermont town knows where, who and when drug deals are happening. Our VTGOP and leadership is doing???? What???? Saying What????
The propaganda is so deep and pervasive in Vermont, if you read or listened to the mainstream “press”, NPR, or VT Digger, you’d think the only criminals are the police, and of course Donald Trump.
Schools, good ones.
Homes, affordable ones.
Jobs, good ones.
Low crime and Drugs, safety.
Good Healthcare
Reasonable property taxes.
This is the recipe for a family, a stable solid family. Vermont on all measures has gone in the wrong direction every year for 3 decades now at the very least.
It’s not rocket science, yet somehow our biggest priorities are, give us all your money so we can save the world, no Trump, higher expenses in healthcare and schools, housing homeless in expensive hotels, feathering our nests with “affordable” housing scam for people to own nothing and be happy their entire lives……..Vermont has the biggest scam running.
If it weren’t for this news site, people would have zero chance to comment or expose what is going on…..thank you Guy!!!!!!
My school district just experienced a 15% decline in K – 6th grade enrollments. That’s in just this year alone.
When I served on our school board 20 years ago, there were some who promoted policies based on their perception that we would have more than 1200 students by now. The district spent all kinds of money in preparation. New buildings. More staff.
Today, we still have the buildings and the staff. But we only have 175 students.
The writing was on the wall. But, apparently, no one who manages our education system learned how to read. Go figure.
So you’re advocating for the closure of small, rural, elementary schools? If not, what’s the writing on the wall telling you?
I believe this has everything to do with the toxic load of childhood vaccine mandates (76 Injections ages 0-18yo) required for our children … Bernie’s disrespectful “ONESIE” rampage against RFK, Jr. for defending our Human Right – who is rightfully questioning their safety, was appalling.
This was an obscene lack of responsibility on behalf of Senator Sanders to support FDA research on Vaccine Safety, funded by Big Pharmaceuticals, (i.e., their “conflict of interest” research that brings in billion$, that informs the CDC they’re SAFE (without having ever actually done safety studies, thanks to Reagan passing the NCVIA 1986).
There exists actual studies the FDA refused to fund, but Bernie & Elizabeth Warren ignores them (I wonder why). I know Senator Sanders & Senator Peter Welch know, because I have sent them the information myself.
I can see why there’s been a decline of 15% enrollment. Some people are waking up. Not enough to save Vermont.
I have to laugh. Basically the author says, “No businesses will come here because of the lack of a labor force”. Really? How out of touch are you? If good companies came here and built plants, the folks I know would be flocking down there looking for jobs the day the places opened. I’d venture a guess that more people would move here for those jobs as well, for better or worse depending on your personal outlook.
Whatever. Why not just speak the truth? Nobody’s building plants here because a) the taxes are too high, and b) the hoops a company has to jump through to build make the process twice as expensive and take twice as long as it would in, I don’t know, North Carolina? Kansas? Texas? Pick any red state. And there are many more obstacles companies face in building here they don’t face elsewhere that I don’t have time to list.
This ain’t rocket surgery, folks. Fact of the matter is, Vermont has become one of the most anti-business states in the Union, and no one wants to build in New California. Face it. Change it!!!
But for right now, to paraphrase Bob Dylan, “The times, they aren’t a-changin'”.
Thank you Robin… you saved me the time in composing a response.
Well put.
Right on, Robin;
A friend has a niece who studied business at a university in the southern USA. She wrote a paper on Act 250, and her professor was so gobsmacked by its anti-business implications, that he actually called the State House to verify its existence (this was before the internet, which goes to show you how long Act 250 has been an economic pestilence to VT).
lol, you speak the truth!!!
It only took 10+ years for Costco to get permits for gas pumps!!!!!
Our town ran out a goat milk soap manufacturer.
Took two years to get a permit for inhouse glass blowing….
Oh, this list goes on forever!!!!
But the drug dealers don’t need permits, don’t get harassed by zoning or even if the cops to bus them our courts set them free. So, Drug Dealing is a rapidly growing business in Vermont
YOU SPEAK THE TRUTH.
These think tanks are grifters too…..good money spent on stupid studies with stupid outcomes.
All of what you say is true. But remember even if Act 250 went away those new jobs would have to pay exorbitant wages to over come all the freebies welfare hands out. What is it up to now $40 an hour to match all the state benefits??? All new workers would need to be imported.
The states economic development tool box is pathetic.
Do away with ACCD, VEGI and the RDC’s and start over. What we have is not working
It’s always important to be reminded any time this birth/death disparity discussion comes up, that the difference between the amount of births and deaths each year in Vermont is almost exactly the number of babies who are aborted each year.
We wouldn’t have to worry about the number of people who are moving here to eliminate this disparity if we stopped killing 25% of those already here before they’re born. We’re aborting our future in the name of “liberty” and “choice.”
Don’t forget about the fact Ob/Gyn MD’s we’re reimbursed by Medicare (as much as $200/pregnant mother if 90% of their clients were C19-compliant). Studies, you won’t find in a Google search, but accessible using Search Engine ‘Yandex.com’, will show, pregnant Mom’s injected with the experimental C19 Injections had a marked increase risk of fetal death & miscarriages during & after the coercive attempts to mass-vaccinate the entire globe with an EXPERIMENTAL mRNA C19 Gene Therapy ~ that violated the Nuremberg Code of Ethics.
> Journalist & Author, Naomi Wolf covered this topic extensively <
…….. never covered by MSM – that is controlled by the DoD
Get rid of act 250 and all of the tentacles it spawned. Let the towns decide what they permit. Enforce the laws that make living here safer. Most important, do not vote for any one running, or suspected of being, a democrat.
This has been in the works for as long as I’ve been alive. I’ve watched the elite of Dartmouth move over and take over Norwich, my hometown and cascade through the state. We a vacationland to the wealthy elite and they allow enough of us to hang on to keep the utilities up and running. As George Carlin once said “it’s a big club and we ain’t in it”
Many who bought property during “the panic” are still legally residing elsewhere for tax reasons. It just added to the collection of second-home owners in VT and more mostly-vacant properties.
Well !! Stay to hell out if you are a liberal leftist Dem Swamp Rat 🐀 don’t you think 🤔 we have enough Swamp Rats, pretty soon we will have to start Building very large Rat traps 😉 or better yet, open water ice fishing contest, win take all !! Its free !! You liberal leftist like free, Right??!!