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by Art Woolf
A thriving, prosperous state is a goal that all Vermonters can agree to. That goal is easier to achieve with a growing population.
More people means a larger selection of workers for businesses, government, and non-profits. It means more people earning incomes, supporting local businesses, and paying taxes to support government programs—many of which serve the neediest of our citizens. A growing economy means more opportunities for us and our children.
It is important, therefore, to know whether, and by how much, our population is growing. In the first two decades of the 21st century, Vermont’s population has been growing at less than half the national rate and we were in the bottom ten states in terms of population growth. That’s very different from Vermont’s experience at the end of the 20th century, when Vermont’s growth was in step with the national experience.
What about now? The U.S. Census counts the nation’s population every 10 years, and in the intervening years we have only population estimates, and those are problematic. A recent study by the Vermont Treasurer’s office reports that 7,500 more people moved into Vermont than out in 2023. But that estimate, based on U.S. Census data, relies on a sample of only about 7,200 households out of 340,000 total households in the state.
A more recent Census estimate based on more comprehensive data, found that 511 more people moved out of Vermont than moved in during 2024. And that Census estimate found that since 2020 only 6,160 more people moved into Vermont than left the state—less than the total number the Treasurer’s office reports moving here in just one year.
Given Vermont’s total population is just under 650,000, that’s a drop in the bucket. And the larger picture is even more problematic. Over the past ten years, Vermont has experienced more deaths than births each year. Since 2020 death have outnumbered births by 6,800, erasing any population gain from people moving here from other states.
As the baby boom generation ages, the number of deaths will continue to increase. At the same time, the number of women in their prime childbearing years will fall, which means the number of births will also continue to decline. That will be a source of population decline.
A healthy economy means people want to live here and can afford to live here. A growing population is both a reflection of that and a source of our prosperity. One only has to look at towns and cities across the country to see the effects of a stagnant population, and contrast that to the dynamism in areas that are growing.
We should not be complacent about our current lack of growth, and we should not base policies on a misinterpretation of what the actual population numbers are or what they are telling us.
Art Woolf is associate professor emeritus at UVM where he taught economics for 39 years. He served as the state economist for Governor Madeleine Kunin from 1988 to 1991.
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Categories: Commentary
Something stinks in Whoville…and it ain’t the cow manure…though with GMO grains, that pretty much STINKS too…
People are no longer nice, or friendly. Everyone has an agenda, and the lowest common denominator rules… idiocy and mediocrity and NONsolutions are lauded …esp if they come from a BIPOC or DEI person… makes no sense whatsoever when we are supposed to be the ‘best of the best’… yeah. Delusions built on virtue signals based on lies… hmmmmm… I wonder why anyone would want to leave that?
Or is it the threat of maks mandates and vaccines what is driving people out now?
Something stinks!? Take a whiff of this.
Dr. Woolf ‘s assessment, dire as it is, doesn’t address the other elephants in the room regarding the people moving in and out of Vermont. For instance, what is the productivity level of those people moving in compared to those moving out?
With Vermont’s current legislative prowess, unproductive people are encouraged to come to Vermont because free social services are more accessible. Conversely, productive people are encouraged to leave because they are required to finance the free social services.
Unintended consequences:
According to the Vermont Department of Health, on a per capita basis, the number of high school students in Vermont who commit suicide has doubled in the last ten years. Vermonters aged 25-44 are most likely to die by suicide. The number of accidental and undetermined opioid-related fatal overdoses among Vermont residents doubled between 2019 and 2023.
Furthermore, according to VT Digger, “Vermont is doing a better job than any other state at providing some shelter to those who are experiencing homelessness”. The result: “Vermont has the second-highest per-capita rate of homelessness in the country, behind only California.”
And what are the fastest growing economic sectors in Vermont, according to the U.S. Department of Labor? Healthcare, Education and Government… the sectors with the highest tax subsidies.
The Student/Staff ratio in Vermont’s public school system is 4 to 1, costing more than $30 thousand per student. And still, half of Vermont’s public high school graduates don’t meet minimum grade level standards.
Even Vermont’s healthcare service providers are moving out of the State. VT Digger reported that ‘As UVM Health Network cuts services in Vermont, it expands in New York’
“The recent cuts on this side of the lake, administrators say, were due solely to the actions of the Green Mountain Care Board, a state regulator that capped network hospital budgets and ordered UVM Medical Center to reduce its charges to private health insurers earlier this year.”
“Owen Foster, the chair of the Green Mountain Care Board, declined to comment, saying he did not know the details…”
He didn’t know the details? Go figure.
But hey… What? Me worry?
Vermont State Government has a habit of ignoring Art Woolf- or anyone else that doesn’t follow the desired narrative. Mr. Woolf just happens to be the purveyor of accurate information and shows anyone who cares to listen the inevitable consequence of ignorant decisions and using bad information. He was a part of writing “Off The Rails” a 2008 EAI report foretelling the consequence of the Vermont legislature’s continued path toward socialism. Virtually every item addressed in Off The Rails has come to be, some exponentially worse than predicted. Perhaps even the most marxist of this current batch of legislators had ought to pay attention to Mr. Woolf- certainly mike pieciak needs to have a hard look at the propaganda output of his office.
Mr. Woolf is sounding the alarm over net outbound migration AND the state’s use of incorrect information to follow the narrative.
The plan is to make Vermont a playground for the rich, who are served by illegal immigrants on low wages, putting them in little village condominium projects owned by the connected. That’s what they are doing.
You will own nothing and be happy.
This is also what our Governor and Leader of the VTGOP voted for in the last election, publicly announced it in worldwide press.
Why are we surprised? Liars don’t tell you what their real aim is.
Population follows good jobs, not vice versa. No PhD in economics required to understand this.
I guess I really wanted to believe that Vermont was special. That those who were elected to manage the government truly had our interests at heart and actually heard the voices of their constituents. Boy, do I have egg on my face. I have come to realize that with the bloated budgets, tax formulas that no one seems to be able to explain, the increasing crime, drugs and death of our justice system…Vermont is on the verge of imploding. The thing our legislators seem to have have forgotten is that most wealthy people didn’t get wealthy by being making bad decisions. And for them, staying here is a bad decision. Our ski industry is iffy at best…thanks to the whims of mother nature and our taxes have reached an unsustainable level… Certainly, they can move to a tax friendlier state and build another ski mansion. The only problem they might face would be selling the one they have here. The rest of us are saving our pennies and planning our escape. I am not well off by any means, but I would like to live somewhere I can keep more of what I do have. It makes me incredibly sad to be making plans to leave…but I’m even sadder watching what is happening, knowing that our state government is doing so little to stop it.
We at Wallyworld cash registers have seen a huge influx of under-40 people with little English but lots of 100 dollar bills and many with SNAP cards paying for their food and clothing, electronics, and lots of diapers and toddlers outfits.
I won’t go into details b/c it’s not their fault and I do not want them targeted.
But the uppities who shop here, many of whom are from California (go figure), love their new slaves and are happy to vote with my wallet to repopulate this state with many opportunities to have such great laborers.
The uppities despise the local Red-NEKs. Sadly, many of the locals pay with SNAP also, and can’t afford their housing and utilities costs. Meantime, Newport gets these six-figure grants to enhance the arts and to start a sidewalk-sale industry.
I dunno what to say. This is what I see in the area.
Wouldn’t it be funny if the agenda is to place migrants into electric homes, and then burn or flood out the old structures and residents who can’t afford to or resist upgrading their habitat?
Some really smart people, they may be fed up with the increasing cost of living and the burdensome taxes levied year after year for what ?? Oh yeah, pet projects for progressive nonsense !!
This was Vermont, and now the progressives are trying to follow California’s agendas, how’s that working out for them, Vermont won’t collapse from fire, but it will collapse from a financial burden on its citizens………
😳 thanks,Art.
and a happy new year to you too.
I’ll be another one at the end of the month!
Vermont’s inept leftist government lies about EVERYTHING. This should come as no surprise from a far left Legislature that hangs a YES or NO sign at the speaker’s podium telling its members how to vote. And a Legislature that hears testimony to support its hare-brained dreamer policies only from people they know agree with them. We’re screwed and the real culprits are the people who vote for these knuckleheads with NO IDEA what or whom they’re voting for.
“As the baby boom generation ages, the number of deaths will continue to increase. At the same time, the number of women in their prime childbearing years will fall, which means the number of births will also continue to decline. That will be a source of population decline.”
Add to this statistic that about 25% of all pregnancies in Vermont end in abortion. This means that the gap between deaths and births in Vermont would be nearly eliminated if the humanity and right to life of every preborn child was recognized, and it was illegal for them to be murdered in their mama’s wombs. We’re aborting our future. Hurrah for deproductive liberty. No.
The Muslims in Europe are increasing the populations in their countries by having many children. In Vermont we’re reducing ours by killing them. And we call them backward.
Why no mention of the incentive programs? “Economic Analysis of Relocation Incentive Programs – In accordance with Act 51 of 2021, the Department of Financial Regulation (DFR) was tasked by the Vermont Legislature to examine “the effectiveness of incentive programs to attract new remote workers in meeting the demographic challenges and workforce shortages that exist in Vermont.” DFR contracted with Philadelphia-based consulting firm, PFM Group Consulting LLC, to conduct an economic analysis of the programs. ”
How much taxpayer money is spent coercing and carrot dangling out-of-staters or “new arrivals”? How effective? Once the mandated time served is served, how many are bailing out? Anyone keeping track now in 2024/2025? Another report shows no money, but still taking applications for $7500 ransom based relolation as of July 2023.
“Employees who have recently moved, or plan to move to Vermont, may still be eligible for a relocation expense reimbursement grant of up to $7,500 through the state’s “ThinkVermont” Worker Relocation Incentive program. The program was funded by a one-time allocation of $3.09 million from the state’s legislature and is available to two types of workers — new relocating workers and new remote workers. The Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development (Agency), which administers the program, announced that while it has received applications for more funding than is currently available, the program will remain open and continue to accept applications, although funding is not guaranteed. ”
Also, wasn’t the broadband money tied into this as well? Hogs at the trough.
https://accd.vermont.gov/economic-development/newrelocatingworkergrant/reports
https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2023-1271-vermont-continues-to-accept-relocation-grant-applications-for-employees-moving-to-the-state