Vermont is projected to see warmer temperatures and more precipitation overall, but that precipitation is expected to come in heavier, less frequent bursts.

by Compass Vermont

In Vermont, residents are accustomed to water—often too much of it, all at once. The memory of Tropical Storm Irene is etched into the state’s collective consciousness, a stark reminder of how quickly its rivers can swell. But this summer and fall, the state is facing a quieter, yet equally menacing, threat: a rapidly intensifying drought. While it doesn’t have the dramatic roar of a flood, this “flash drought” is stressing farms, forests, and water supplies across Vermont.

Flash vs. Creeping Droughts: What’s the Difference?

Drought is commonly thought of as a slow-moving disaster. It’s the “creeping drought” that unfolds over many months or even years, a result of below-average precipitation that gradually depletes reservoirs, soil moisture, and groundwater.

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A flash drought, however, is a different beast. It’s a weather sneak attack. Characterized by a rapid intensification over a few weeks, it’s typically fueled by a combination of factors:

• High temperatures: More heat means more evaporation.
• Low humidity and sunny skies: The air is thirsty and pulls moisture from the ground and plants.
• Lack of rainfall: The most obvious ingredient.
• Windy conditions: Wind accelerates evaporation from the soil.

An analogy helps illustrate the difference: a regular drought is like a slow leak in a tire, while a flash drought is like a sudden puncture. The speed is what makes it so dangerous. Ecosystems and agricultural operations have very little time to adapt to the sudden, severe dryness.

Just How Bad Is It Right Now?

As of mid-September 2025, the situation across Vermont is serious and getting worse. According to the official U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint project of federal agencies and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, large swaths of the state are experiencing D2 – Severe Drought, particularly in the Champlain Valley and southern counties. Much of the rest of the state is under a D1 – Moderate Drought classification.

This isn’t just a map with colors; these conditions have real-world consequences that many Vermonters are already feeling:

• Agriculture: Farmers are facing one of the toughest seasons in recent memory. Hay fields have produced poor second and third cuts, forcing many to buy expensive feed for their livestock. Corn stalks are stunted, and apples may be smaller this year. As noted by agricultural specialists at the UVM Extension, farmers are having to irrigate far more than usual, straining both their water sources and their budgets.
• Water Levels: Major rivers like the Winooski and Lamoille are running exceptionally low. Some smaller streams have dried up entirely. This impacts both aquatic ecosystems and recreational activities. Municipal water suppliers are beginning to ask residents to voluntarily conserve water to ease the strain on reservoirs and wells.
• Wildfire Risk: The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has issued warnings about elevated fire danger. Vermont’s lush green forests are deceptively dry. A carelessly tossed cigarette or an unattended campfire could easily ignite a wildfire that would spread quickly in these conditions.

How Bad Could It Get?

The immediate future depends entirely on the weather. Without significant, sustained rainfall over several weeks, the current situation will likely worsen.

If these dry, warm conditions persist through the fall, some areas currently in Severe Drought (D2) could slip into D3 – Extreme Drought. This would trigger widespread agricultural losses and likely lead to mandatory water restrictions in the hardest-hit communities. The stress on the state’s maple trees is also a major concern; a dry fall can impact the health of the trees and potentially reduce the amount of sap they produce next spring.

Looking at the bigger picture, climate data from sources like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Vermont Climate Assessment suggests that the region’s weather patterns are changing. Vermont is projected to see warmer temperatures and more precipitation overall, but that precipitation is expected to come in heavier, less frequent bursts. This creates a challenging cycle: a deluge that causes flooding, followed by a long, hot, dry period perfect for creating a flash drought. The state may be entering a new reality where preparation is needed for both extremes.

What Happens Next

In the short term, all eyes are on the forecast. Meteorologists are watching for any pattern shifts that could bring prolonged, soaking rain to the region. However, a single thunderstorm won’t fix the problem; steady rain is needed to truly recharge the soil and groundwater.

State agencies are monitoring the situation closely, using tools like the U.S. Drought Monitor to track conditions and provide guidance to municipalities and farmers.

For residents, this is a critical time for conservation and caution. Recommended actions include:

• Water Conservation: Taking shorter showers, fixing leaks, and avoiding watering lawns are effective measures. Every drop saved helps.
• Fire Safety: Adhering to all local and state burn bans is crucial. Extreme caution should be exercised with any open flame outdoors.
• Support for Local Farms: This is a tough year for farmers. Buying local at farmers’ markets or farm stands can make a real difference.

Ultimately, this drought serves as a powerful wake-up call. It’s a reminder that in a changing climate, building resilience is necessary to face not only the sudden shock of floods but also the silent, creeping crisis of drought.