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Vermont produces six times less energy than it consumes and depends on trucked-in petroleum for both transportation and home heating. Transportation accounts for 38% of its total energy consumption.
Navigating the 2026 Energy Crisis: What Rising Global Tensions Mean for Vermont
Recent hostilities in the Persian Gulf have shifted the global energy market, creating price volatility and supply-chain uncertainty for Vermont residents. Because Vermont relies heavily on imported petroleum for transportation and home heating, these geopolitical events impact the state’s ongoing efforts to manage affordability and fiscal stability.
As of March 6, 2026, the disruption of major oil-producing centers and maritime routes has led to a sharp increase in retail fuel prices across the Green Mountain State.
The Source of the Global Energy Shock
The current crisis stems from military engagements that began in late February 2026, impacting energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply. By early March, international benchmark crude prices surged, and American consumers saw the effects at the pump within hours. On March 2, the U.S. recorded its largest one-day increase in gasoline prices since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Impact on Vermont Gasoline Prices
Vermont’s gasoline prices have risen as part of this national trend. While the state average remained relatively stable throughout 2025, the recent shock pushed prices to a statewide average of approximately $3.16 to $3.21 per gallon. These increases coincide with the seasonal transition to more expensive summer-blend fuels.
Within Vermont, fuel costs vary by region due to logistics and competition. Residents in the Northeast Kingdom and northern border counties typically face higher retail prices than those in Chittenden or southern counties. For example, Burlington averages saw a spread of 24 cents between individual stations in early March, as some retailers adjusted to wholesale spikes faster than others.
Rising Costs for Home Heating
The timing of the crisis is particularly impactful for Vermont households as the heating season enters its final weeks. Residential heating oil prices averaged over $4.00 per gallon in early March, marking a significant increase from previous weeks. Wholesale “rack” prices for fuel oil and kerosene spiked sharply between February 24 and March 6, suggesting that further retail price increases are likely as local dealers replenish their supplies.
State Emergency Measures and Assistance
In response to supply challenges and cold weather, the Vermont Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) issued emergency declarations and waivers for commercial truck drivers. These orders allow drivers to work extended hours to ensure heating oil, propane, and highway salt reach communities in a timely manner.
For residents facing immediate fuel shortages, the Department for Children and Families (DCF) continues to offer the After-Hours Crisis Fuel Assistance program through April 5, 2026. This service is available to vulnerable households—including those with seniors, young children, or individuals with disabilities—who have run out of heat.
Economic Pressure on Agriculture and Tourism
The surge in energy costs affects two pillars of the Vermont economy: farming and tourism. The dairy sector is facing increased costs for fuel and fertilizer, much of which is sourced from the Gulf region. To provide relief, the Governor’s budget includes proposals to eliminate certain permit fees for large and medium-sized farms.
The tourism industry, which contributes billions to the state economy, may also see shifts in consumer behavior. If fuel prices remain high through the spring and summer, travel patterns may trend toward local day-trips rather than long-distance visits, potentially impacting lodging and retail revenue.
Transportation and Public Transit
For the 70% of Vermonters who rely on personal vehicles, higher fuel costs act as an immediate strain on household budgets. In response, more residents are utilizing rural public transit and microtransit options. Programs like “Ticket-to-Ride” and on-demand microtransit in towns like Montpelier and Manchester provide essential connections for those looking to reduce their reliance on personal vehicles during the price spike.
Long-Term Policy and Decarbonization
The 2026 energy shock has highlighted the debate over Vermont’s energy future. Discussions regarding the Clean Heat Standard have intensified, with critics concerned about the potential for added costs on heating fuels and proponents emphasizing the long-term savings of weatherization and heat pump adoption. However, a significant gap in the weatherization workforce remains a hurdle for many residents attempting to transition away from fossil fuels.
What Happens Next
The duration of the conflict in the Persian Gulf remains the primary factor in determining whether these price spikes are temporary or sustained. State leaders are currently monitoring the situation to determine if further emergency declarations for fuel delivery are necessary. In the legislature, the focus remains on addressing a structural deficit in the Transportation Fund and finalizing the FY 2027 budget, which includes measures aimed at providing property tax relief to offset rising living expenses.
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Trump bombing Iran for BIBI will cause a little hardship for Vermonters. Suck it up and live with it. Ninety five percent of the comments on many websites support Iran.
“The duration of the conflict in the Persian Gulf remains the primary factor in determining whether these price spikes are temporary or sustained.”
We were told four weeks (kind of like “two weeks to flatten the curve,” I suppose). Now they’re saying six months with the possibility of ground troops. Mission creep already ten days in. If you know our history in that region, you know it’s going to cost trillions and lots of body bags–the very thing our president campaigned AGAINST for the last ten years. Incredible.
Vermont has no ability to insulate itself from global energy prices except by making its electricity the most expensive in the world by adopting the 100% renewable by 2030 law. The cost of highly subsidized solar, wind and batteries will bankrupt the state but at least we won’t be subject to the normal fluctuations caused by global supply and demand. The Iran conflict has made shipping through the Straits of Hormuz too dangerous for oil tankers to be insured. That is a temporary situation. Vermont’s trip down the renewable road leads to a cul-de-sac of energy poverty, blackouts and economic collapse.
Good comment Steve. Vermont has been walking on a fence for years given their corrupt agenda without any ability to foresee events and protect itself, close to falling. If going belly up with the happenings, it should be welcomed for changes in Government. There will be screaming in the educational system about financial consequences and how are they can cope. I see the situation being a blessing. The Governor can’t cope, the legislature can’t cope. Time for real thinking and independent people who can cope to provide answers /agendas for the voters to realize. Correct the voting system and eliminate Chittenden / Washington Counties influence and control Vermont being the “Super Majority”, mostly Flatlanders with their drugs, crime and murders, etc.
My suggestion as I’ve done for years on these VT sites (VDC & True North Reports) , Like the US, two Senators per state. For a VT balance, have only two Senators per county. Time is getting ripe for change. This limiting number was also endorsed by Joe Benning Senator from Lyndonville, but he wanted 3 Senators. IT’S TRUMP’S FAULT! MVTGA, unforeseen forces will dictate change. TRUMP may win again or the state will have a greater population decline. Hope is alive and as stated there are solutions and not by throwing money at a problem.
We’ve already seen prices like this in peace times under Biden! So, deal with it. It’s not the end of life.
It is also price gouging by the retailer chains. The “war” wasn’t two days old and the Cumberland Farms in Lyndon went up 21-cents. It takes several weeks for a barrel of crude bought today to reach the US, be refined, delivered, and pumped into your car. The prices shouldn’t change overnight . . . and they sure as heck won’t drop that fast when the “war” ends.
Just now went to the Lyndon Cumberland Farms and the price per gallon of regular gas went from $3.24 last night at 9:00pm to $3.49 this afternoon at $3:45pm. GOUGING
Fridays closing price is still lower than the per barrel price of crude under Biden and Obama
Well, today’s Monday, that’s not true anymore and we’re not even a week into this debacle with no way out…Gonna go to Kalashi right now and put $100 on $5.00 a gallon gas average this summer.
Chris, under the last Administration oil hit $126 a barrel and in 2008 hit $165. I also remember paying $4.98 gal for gas in VT then
All prices are going up now so the dealers will have the extra income to pay for their next shipment of gas which could be twenty or thirty percent higher.
Oil prices crashed today back down to $80+ from $121 this morning . . . I’ll be looking to see if that is reflected so quickly at the pumps in the morning. Not holding my breath.
Right you are mday. They are dropping today. Some of the “experts” on global energy policy commenting here act like they want the country to fail. I will gladly pay more for gas if the end justifies the means.
beau, had a client down South in the chain convince gas station business who explained price changes to me this way, when the replacement price goes up on the spot market, they have a distribution manager on a ‘quotron’ all day, the price goes up immediately, when the turn and go back down, the price stays up as long as the competition keeps theirs up and they see who blinks first to bring them down, it is not a direct correlation. This is the only commodity used by consumers the FTC lets get away with pricing inventory already in stock with replacement costs.
Trump said he would provide war time insurance for vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz and everything is going to be fine. Do you suppose this caused the oil crash or is because China and Russia are involved in this operation?????
Lloyd’s of London tried to re-create the Oil Crisis of 1979 by refusing to insure ships in the Strait. Trump was ready, out-maueuvering them by providing insurance. Lloyd’s blinked, and said, “Okay, we’ll insure shipping through the Strait again,” (at a highly profitable rate).
China was buying a great deal of Iranian and Venezuelan oil at below-market rates, as they were skirting the regime of western sanctions, and China could purchase at a discount. Now China is kneecapped, energetically. Brilliant.
And Russia will be able to sell to the West, soon in dollars, at full, rather than discounted price. Get ready for trade and partnership with Russia, as the neocon/globalist dream of plundering them evaporates.
@Tyler: Not sure where you’re getting your information from, but it sounds like Q nonsense. Chinese ships are currently the ONLY ones Iran is letting through the strait. Trump’s DFC is a drop in the bucket. No. 1 on Substack: “Traffic is down 80-95%. The DFC’s $20B facility covers 5.7% of JPMorgan’s estimated $352B gap.” In other words, that insurance hasn’t budged the needle. Ships are not sailing.
Meanwhile, US interceptor missiles that require rare earth minerals to manufacture are quickly being depleted. And those minerals have to be sourced from China, which just banned their exports. “Brilliant” indeed.
Can’t wait for Montpecular to follow their beloved NY and copy the new NY tax on liquid fossil fuels, which will implement a $2.23 additional tax per gallon on gasoline with funds to go to global green energy credits effective 1/2/2027, while their governor complains about ‘affordability’
Didn’t Trump explicitly promise no more endless foreign engagements? Trump was right about one thing – he could shoot someone on Fifth Ave without losing any supporters. SAD.
Wrong conclusions come from moot points.
Tuesday, Oil Prices DOWN $35 a barrel today and US Equity Markets recovered yesterday
To everyone crowing about how oil is down today, just a reminder that it was $50 a barrel two weeks ago. This is like cheering on the fire department for putting out a fire that they set. What are we doing in Iran again? Oh yeah, distracting from the Epstein files.