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By Paul Bean
President Donald Trump announced on Friday that his administration would implement a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which has some Vermonters wondering what effects this would have on Vermont’s economy.
“Today I have implemented a 25% Tariff on Imports for Mexico and Canada (10% on Canadian Energy), and a 10% additional Tariff on China,” wrote Donald Trump on his social media site Truth Social.
A 10% tariff on Canadian energy is a concern for Vermont’s energy sector, and this could impact energy rates in Vermont. “The White House will impose a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products effective on Tuesday,” wrote Vermont Fuel in a Facebook post yesterday with the graphic above. “Nearly all of Vermont’s natural gas is from Canada. So is a quarter of Vermont’s electricity. Canadian refineries supply approximately a third of the heating and motor fuel in Vermont.”
The Vermont Fuel Facebook page is posted by AffordableHeat.org, an advocacy group opposing the Clean Heat Standard.
Vermont Fuel is not alone in their concern for the potential increase in energy costs. Vermont State Treasurer, Mike Pieciak wrote on his X page Friday evening “Canada is VT’s top trading partner—a 25% tariff means higher prices for Vermonters and lower profits for small businesses. It will also make housing development more expensive. Vermonters can’t afford this. Tariffs shouldn’t be used against a key U.S. ally.”
In 2023, Vermont generated almost 100% of its in-state electricity from renewable resources, but since the closure of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station in 2014, about 80% of the state’s electricity supply comes from out-of-state, primarily the New England power grid but also from Canada via Hydro Quebec, a government-owned corporation whose sole shareholder is the Québec government. Vermont imports around 20% of its electricity from Canada depending on the year.
However, reports from the US Energy and Information Administration show that nationally, since the fall of 2023, the United States as a whole is increasingly less and less dependent on Canada for energy. This is due to the fact that Canada has reduced hydropower generation because of drought and lower natural gas prices in the US. (If you are interested in a deep dive into Canada/US energy relations, read this report from USEIA.)
According to Seven Days, last Monday U.S. Sen. Peter Welch warned a group of business leaders in St. Albans, that if tariffs are placed on energy, natural gas rates in Vermont could increase by 10 percent and electricity rates by 2.5 percent. “Tiny Vermont, with a GDP of $35 billion, is particularly vulnerable to tariffs on products from its neighbor to the north. Vermont imports $2.6 billion in goods from Canada annually…Canada is the state’s largest trading partner, a bigger player than the next five largest foreign markets combined, according to figures compiled by the Canadian Consulate General in Boston,” wrote 7 Day’s reporter Anne Wallace Allen on Friday.
Comments made online by Vice President J.D. Vance have indicated this is as much about border security and national security as it is about a fair trade deal. “…Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our ‘best friend.’ I love Canada and have many Canadian friends. But is the government meeting its NATO target for military spending? Are they stopping the flow of drugs into our country? I’m sick of being taken advantage of,” wrote Vance on his X page yesterday.
VP Vance’s comment follows a visit to the Northeast Kingdom made by the newly appointed Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem on Thursday. Her visit followed the death of a Border Patrol Agent who was shot by a couple involved with a “rationalist cult” of California origins called “Zizians,” which is also connected to other murder cases around the country.
It should be noted however that under Vance’s post was a community note “fact check” that pointed out “In 2024, over 21,000 pounds of fentanyl were seized at the U.S.-Mexico border, compared to 43 pounds at the U.S.-Canada border.”
A drug bust occurred Thursday night in Bethel where nine people were arrested. Authorities found a “grenade launcher” among numerous other firearms. “Although it’s not currently clear how this group obtained a grenade launcher, it has been in international news that the Mexican government is demanding investigations into drug cartels being found with these types of weapons,” writes VDC reporter Mike Bielawski.
It is not a shock that Vermonters are initially going to be affected by these tariffs due to the proximity and dependency we have on the Canadian Government. President Trump’s low favorability amongst most of Vermont’s political leadership and many voters, the reaction to the tariffs may be bringing rise to a lot of questions about the economic direction of our state. This last election cycle showed that public safety and affordability are a concern for Vermonters.
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Categories: Energy
I have been doing some research on Canadian tariffs. I found information that Canada charges U.S. imports over 200% on milk, cheese, butter and chickens. If this is accurate – why all the hand wringing about the 25% Trump imposed tariffs? There were quite a few other Canadian tariffs also. Why isn’t this information made accessible as part of the tariff argument? Let’s investigate the whole story.
I’ll keep my eyes open.
Thank you John for posting this. I have noted the same, and also wondering why it isn’t mentioned.
Wil HYDRO QUEBEC stop paying their property taxes on the projects they have in Vermont???????
43 pounds of fentanyl is enough to kill 9.8 million American adults. So Canada has let in enough fentanyl to kill everyone in Vermont fifteen times. Thanks Canada.
If the drugs leave Canada and enter the US, wouldn’t it be the American side letting in the drugs?
What countries stop and frisk everything on its way out??
So let me see if I understand this. A shots fired declaration goes out over the radio, and Burlington Police will not respond because the Mayor thinks ICE doing their job is overreach ? Think about turn around being fair play. I really can not see a call going out for assistance in Burlington, and Burlington Police not responding because it’s ICE ! A good Cop just would not let a call for assistance go unanswered because of politics. After all, Heaven forbid “There but for the grace of God go I” Madame Mayor, your loony, lefty, politics will bite you again !
Oops ! How’d that happen ? Wrong article !
Vermont needs to return to the glory days, when the rarest thing in Vermont was a democrat.
Maybe VT will reconsider the lawsuit vs. oil companies when the hydro electricity and Canadian gas gets shut off?
Perhaps Vermont Yankee will have to re-open as well.
Considering that fuel oil went up nearly 2.5-fold from the end of 2020 to the end of 2022 (and is still about 40% over the former), 10% doesn’t seem like that much. Meanwhile, most Dems still want to increase it well beyond the latter (the “Clean Heat Standard”), so forgive me for scoffing at their opportunistic concern. Also, since this is just the start of negotiation, we’ll see what the news is after Trump and Trudeau’s conversation today.
Yep, Trudeau has agreed to do what Trump demanded to combat fentanyl trafficking.
43 pounds of fentanyl is a pretty good reason to hold trudeau’s feet to the fire, along with other marxist demands emanating from he and his party. Canada cannot afford these tariffs for a week, let alone longer- and trudeau really ought to put the Canadian people first, not his hatred of Trump. These tariffs are being placed for a specific reason- one that is in both Canadian and American interests.
Mexico was able to make a phone call and get an agreement, at least temporarily…
trudeau can’t pick up a phone? or won’t…
What is disturbing: The ignorance of Vermont’s politicians in forcing a reliance on Canadian energy imports. Sole source for natural gas? when New England as a whole needs more natural gas to provide electricity when the wind ain’t blowing and the sun ain’t shining? Not that there would ever be enough solar, wind or storage to do the job… but that’s for another discussion…
CANADA CAPITULATES (as have other threatened nations) . . . the tariffs were/are and effective tools
Don’t worry Trump already caved and his people will say this is a win, just like last time when he ripped up NAFTA and replaced it with NAFTA while Elon loots the treasury
Chris, a very sad and warped perspective on your part. Give Trump the credit and support that he deserves in prioritizing America’s interests for the first time in four years. And his success is a multiple advancement over the pathetic passivity of Joe Zero Biden and the incompetence and inactivity that strengthened the goals of the destructive Marxists…God Bless America and Donald Trump…
Take another toke of that pipe Chris…take a trip and never leave the farm.
Why did Columbia, Panama, Mexico, and Canada fold so fast? The Truth is they have no leverage against the USA. The USA has much more resources and don’t need to give free money or trade for nothing in return. It is not just gloal trade – it is financial instruments, currency, investments, consumption of goods, tourism, and services rendered. They can’t compete or exist without the USA taking in their products or using our services. They are far too leveraged – their countries’ balance sheets would crater in a matter of weeks.
It’s actually quite the opposite more or less, however it’s a good game of chicken. Our fake money federal reserve note system sucks, but theirs sucks even worse. It’s a great pyramid scheme for the wealthy elites in bed with government, but the poor always suffer on both sides.
The United States is at the top of the pyramid scheme, and we outsource our government/corporate destruction to other countries in the form of getting something (goods), for nothing (fake money). The reason this “works”, is because these other countries have an even crappier fake money scam system, so they are forced to actually make real things to survive, while we have the luxury of printing endless money to support our giant corporate war lords, so long as we do it at a lesser rate than everyone else.
We don’t have “much more resources”, we have worthless dollars that the world is stupid enough to use. When that ends the game is up. If other countries stopped using dollars, they will still have and use “their stuff”, because they actually have stuff that can be used. We don’t have stuff that can be used. We would be screwed out of having stuff, and our money would not be useful for anything.
The Romans were able to keep a similar scam going for 1000 years, but not without constant disastrous consequences.
Shouldn’t the climate action advocates be celebrating and calling their friends at Bread and Puppet when the price of fossil fuels goes up? Raising the price of fossil fuels to deter use has been their strategy for years.
If the idiots years ago didn’t vote to shut down Vernon nuclear power plant they wouldn’t have to worry about energy from Canada
Wrong again…
Hello my Fellow Vermonters, Trump Tariffs on Canada (CA) is not a trade war as Vermont Fuel and the author wants you to believe. Nor is it with Mexico (MX). It is about CA and MX not securing their Borders with us here in America and stopping all the illegal immigration, drugs and human trafficking.
*** UPDATE: Now, both Countries have agreed to send Military personnel to their Borders and help us stop all the illegal activities going on there.
Additionally, why do American taxpayers give CA millions of dollars annually, and CA doesnt pay their fair share to NATO? Here in Vermont, Why is it okay for CA to put tariffs on our milk and dairy products coming into their country? Why do we send Vermont raw wood materials (trees) to CA to be milled to lumber and then when the lumber products comes back to us, they add tariffs? (Why did our State government regulate saw mills out of business). Why are we, Vermont so dependent on CA energy, fuel, and propane gas?
Well, both CA and MX and some other Country’s folded. President Trump made his point and these Countries are startig to comply and take care of their business. He is giving them thirty days to see if they will do what they promised to do.
So closing Vermont Yankee increased our dependency on Canadian hydro? I bet no Environmental activist saw that coming. It’s amazing how numb these people are to the consequences of their Ill-advised policies. And their thinking hasn’t changed since then. Let’s have net zero. Who cares if it wipes out the US auto industry. Thank God sanity has return to the nation. Too bad we still have a long way to go in Vermont.
I believe Vermont Yankee was insolvent weren’t they? Running a nuclear power plant is very expensive, and the facility was getting too old and needed too much invested in it to keep it up to speck. They also didn’t take safety 100% seriously and the place polluted our environment multiple times to due to negligence. This is why we can’t have nice things.
People can’t be trusted to run a nuclear power plant as proven every time, especially in today’s “stare at my cell phone at work all day” age, and American made international enemies targeting power plants age. There is a 50 percent change that people working there would know how to read and do math. Do you really want that in your back yard?