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By Kenneth Schrupp, The Center Square
Toyota’s CEO said California’s semi-national mandate that 35% of 2026 model year vehicles be zero-emission is “impossible” to meet.
According to the California New Car Dealers Association, 25.6% of new vehicles were all-electric or plug-in-hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2024. Vermont and 10 other states and the District of Columbia have agreed to meet California’s zero-emissions light passenger vehicle standards, with some starting California’s targets in model year 2026, and the remainder in model year 2027.
“I have not seen a forecast by anyone … government or private, anywhere that has told us that that number is achievable. At this point, it looks impossible,” said Toyota Motor North America COO Jack Hollis, as reported by CNBC. “Demand isn’t there. It’s going to limit a customer’s choice of the vehicles they want.”\One example is how in 2023, Stellantis, which owns Jeep, made gasoline-powered non-hybrids available only as special order vehicles in California and other states that have adopted California Air Resources Board Standards.
Under California’s Advanced Clean Cars II mandate that starts with model year 2026 vehicles, automakers must either sell enough cars or buy enough credits for the equivalent of 35% of their vehicles sold in California to qualify as zero emission vehicles, of which up to 20% can be plug-in-hybrids and at least 15% of which must be all-electric. Automakers will pay a $20,000 fine per ZEV credit they are short, meaning carmakers will have to either buy credits from other automakers with excess credits, or sell fewer non-ZEV vehicles.
This ACC II standard applies to Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington for model year 2026, and Colorado, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C. for model year 2027.
With the 2026 model year vehicles starting sales in the second half of 2025, zero-emissions vehicle sales as a share of total sales would need to grow 37% in about a year to meet the state’s ZEV goals; EV sales are only starting to grow again since stagnating in 2023, suggesting a return to explosive growth could be unlikely with the current level of EV technology.
“It could be that EV sales have temporarily plateaued and will start rising again once manufacturers make more improvements,” said Cato Institute state policy analyst Marc Joffe to The Center Square. “For those of us used to filling up a gasoline powered car in just a couple of minutes, it is going to be hard to accept the 30-45 minute wait.”
Joffe also noted that high and rising energy costs in California could be eating into EV demand.
“One challenge for EVs in California is the high cost of electricity,” said Joffe. “This means that charging a vehicle is much more expensive here, cutting into the financial benefits of owning an EV.”
Energy prices are so high the California Air Resources Board says the state is near the point at which it’s cheaper to propel a car on gasoline than it is on electrons. Last week, CARB voted to create a $105 billion credit for EV charger operators to be paid for with rising carbon emissions fees on the petroleum refineries that produce gasoline and diesel. CARB estimates the measure will create a 47 cent per gallon pass-through cost for gasoline in 2025.
By raising the price of gasoline, and subsidizing electric vehicle charging, CARB’s new Low Carbon Fuel Standard incentivizes more Californians to get out of gasoline-powered cars either acquire electric vehicles or take public transportation.
California is able to pass its own emissions standards via a waiver granted by the Environmental Protection Agency, which first granted California a waiver to deal with smog pollution in the Los Angeles area in the latter half of the 20th century. The Obama administration ordered an expansion of California’s waiver just pollution to include emissions as well. In 2019, the Trump administration revoked California’s EPA waiver, a move that was held up in courts until the Biden administration put the waiver back into place in 2021.
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Categories: Energy
So all the car makers have to do is say we’re sorry we can’t meet your mandate so we will discontinue selling cars in your state, please except our apologies for anyone who may cross your state boarder and buy a car in a neighboring state, AND all those pesky people who have the audacity to drive through you sanitized state!!!!!!!
When reality slowly disintegrates a fantasy.
Trucks are next and will not be able to haul fuel into this state. One Vermont senator told you to wear another sweater and you had better buy some more blankets.
Love how CA fights public opinion with more taxes and higher fees, subsidized by the very public that told them “NO”. Hey libs, we know a sh*t sandwich when we see one, and forcing it down my throat by making me pay for it to make it more appealing is EXACTLY the reason you got your as*es kicked this year.
The absolute idiocy of Vermont being tied to California emissions laws clearly shows the disconnect of legislative ClimateEvangelists™ to all Vermonter’s, except elitists. In the article linked above, CARB “officials” state- in an effort to justify the added costs to consumers-
“CARB finally published the finalized LCFS resolution for tomorrow, which says the board “recognizes that compliance costs of this program can be passed onto consumers,” and that if “the specific changes adopted under this resolution ultimately accelerate cost burdens on California consumers” it may amend CARB again.”
Think about what similar rules mean for Vermont- as what is in the “clean heat standard”- We, government by decree shall take money from the taxpayer and consumer to furnish the bureaucracy and ‘green businesses’ with the funds they seek to force economic sustainability for bureaucracy and ‘green business’. Nowhere in CARB’s statements is any sort of accommodation for the consumer or taxpayer- only the financial support of business that operates to substantiate the goals of CARB. Vermont’s GWSA is the same- the goal, at any cost is to meet the goal set forth, whether achievable or not. In Vermont’s version of the GWSA and Act 18, the clean heat standard are requirements to consider the effects on low income and “marginalized” populations- requiring additional subsidy- and further tax and fee collections from consumers and taxpayers to comply.
Vermont’s socialists have created a Gordanian Knot- with several Catch 22 clauses that spell the economic collapse of Vermont- with the added social upheaval that inevitably follows severe economic conditions. At this point in the process, repeal of Act 18 and the GWSA as written are the only way out. Too bad the legislature will not face the realities and consequence of their actions. Already some of the most egregious legislators have retired or been removed from their positions- never to be held accountable. The thousands of Vermont families that have left, for better economic conditions won’t be back. Ever. All in the name of eliminating CO2 from our atmosphere- the very molecule that makes our state “The Green Mountain State”.
Very well stated. Legalized corruption. The left’s favorite go-to.
VDC should interview every vt rep, who should clearly be living by example, if they are not living net zero…….how do they expect us?
Shine the light bright in their face with direct interviews, it will be hysterical to watch.
Hey Vermonters, just think your legislators are trying to have Vermont mimic California, not just with vehicle emissions but with all the other liberal nonsense !!
All these mandates will take to implement is more of your tax dollars, and you vote these inept clowns in…………………. you better wake up people.
About 30 years ago, the enlightened democrats in the VT legislature declared that by the year 2020, 90% of Vermont’s heating and transportation will be powered by renewable energy. For some reason, their legislation did not become reality, which must have been quite a shock to many of them. After all, the laws of physics and thermodynamics are just “laws”, and they are the “lawmakers”.