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by Steve Thurston
The Vermont legislature enacted a law last session (over the governor’s veto) requiring 100% of Vermont’s electricity to come from renewables – mainly wind, solar and batteries – by 2030. If the electric utilities fail to accomplish this requirement the state will collect “noncompliance” fees from the utilities. As I will show, ACT 179 requires something that is impossible to achieve while penalizing the utilities and ultimately their ratepayers for failing to achieve it!
This afternoon as I write this (December 10 at 4 pm) the ISO-NE grid that Vermont is part of is operating with a load of 16,857 megawatts (MW). Solar is contributing zero MW because the sun is setting. Wind power is contributing a paltry 136 MW, or less than 1 % of demand. There are approximately 1400 MW of installed wind capacity in the ISO-NE grid. That equates to about 140 miles of mountain ridges lined with turbines. Together those turbines are generating less than 10% of their rated capacity because there is not much wind.
If there were ten times as many turbines, 14,000 MW, or 1,400 miles of mountain ridges lined with turbines, they would not provide even 10% of the current electricity demand. In fact, if there were one hundred times as many turbines, 140,000 MW or 14,000 miles of turbines, that still would not be enough electricity to power the grid this afternoon.
Let’s get real about unreliable renewables. Sometimes they work and sometimes they do not. You cannot have 100% renewable electricity in Vermont if the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing constantly.
It does not matter how many miles of ridges lined with turbines or square miles of solar panels there are. For 15 hours of the day this time of year solar produces nothing and when winds are calm, as they frequently are on these overcast days, wind turbines produce next to nothing.
For those who say batteries are the answer, Green Mountain Power will sell you a $15,000 Tesla Powerwall battery for your home. In a power outage it will run your heat pump for about 4 hours. Then what? At any rate batteries are an incredibly expensive and illogical way backup wind and solar. Indeed, they must be charged before they can be depleted and that requires wind and solar to be available. This is what is known as Catch 22.
The 100% renewable (or shall we say 100% unreliable?) law must be repealed by the incoming legislature because it requires something that is impossible for the utilities to achieve but slaps ratepayers with “non-compliance” penalties if the utilities do not achieve what the law requires. Could there be a more nefarious law? Well, yes – the Global Warming Solutions Act which encourages anyone to sue the state (meaning the taxpayer) if emissions reductions are not met is another example, foisted upon us by the since decimated super majority Democrat legislature.
As the ISO-NE charts at the end of this article show, the bulk of New England’s electricity comes from low emission natural gas and zero emission nuclear energy both of which are dependable, affordable and plentiful, and offer the long-term benefits of stable energy pricing and energy security.
Rather than relying on expensive and unreliable wind, solar and batteries, Vermont should be planning for a new nuclear power plant at Vernon to replace Vermont Yankee, a 640 MW zero emission nuclear power plant which was decommissioned and demolished well before its expected lifespan due to political interference from the Vermont legislature and then Governor, Peter Shumlin. The transmission lines are still there, waiting for electrons. In fact, building a new nuclear plant in Vermont is only playing catch up – China is currently building 22 nuclear reactors and is planning for 70 more in the next 5 years to add to their fleet of 55.
In addition to Vermont Yankee #2, there needs to be more natural gas pipeline capacity coming to New England from the vast Marcellus Shale formation in Pennsylvania. Natural gas is the lowest priced fossil fuel, produces 40% fewer CO2 emissions than oil per unit of heat, and is cleaner burning.
The New England states desperately need access to more natural gas. Currently more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) is being imported in tanker ships from foreign countries to generate our electricity because of limited pipeline capacity, especially in winter when home heating takes priority over electricity generation.
The more energy independent we are the more secure we are. Pennsylvania’s natural gas reserves are some of the largest in the world. Currently much of it is being exported overseas. New England needs a small portion to ensure energy adequacy. State, local and Federal policies must align to solve this problem. The Trump administration has signaled that energy security will be a high priority.
The new legislature and Governor Scott have a newfound opportunity to get Vermont back on track with sound energy policies. The Global Warming Solutions Act, the Clean Heat Standard, and the 100% Renewable Electricity laws are taking us into a cul-de-sac of energy poverty. The U-turn cannot come soon enough. These laws must be repealed.
Here is a pie chart from ISO-NE’s real time webpage showing the generation mix, with renewables providing 5% of total generation:
Here is a chart showing wind’s 10% share of renewable sources:
Author is a retired general contractor and home builder from Ferrisburgh
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Categories: Commentary, Energy, Environment
“the state will collect “noncompliance” fees from the utilities. ”
I fail to see how the state collecting money from utilities as a punitive measure is actually going to help consumers. Can’t wait to hear the explanation for this
WHAT?????
I have a flag pole in my front yard that has a solar collector, and light on it. It has not worked since the last heavy snow we got a couple of weeks ago. Last night the rain melted the snow on it. I suspect it will be working again tonight. Is that the kind of reliability that anyone would want to have to rely on to keep their house warm, or their vehicle charged and ready to go ? Not me man !
Same here, I have a solar powered light under my carport with the solar collector on top where it gets light all day. When it gets cold it doesn’t work but works all summer. This is the kind of technology that the legislative brain trust wants us all to have, no light also means no heat. Heat pumps work great in the south where they aren’t exposed to cold. I also read an article that claimed there is less carbon in our atmosphere now than before all the human activity. There probably isn’t anyone under the golden doom that understands any of this but listen to the lobbyists as they accept their generous checks for reelection. It’s hard to soar with eagles when we are led by turkeys. You get what you vote for!
Shazam ! The light on my flag pole is working again !
My sentiment is be as comfortable as possible during this time of planatary hospice. And what allows us comfort? Oil and gas and all of its nearly endless list of byproducts that humans demand. Nobody can stop whats coming the human animal has made its bed now are forced to sleep in it.
Thank you Steve for giving us a common sense, factual and reasonable perspective on this subject.
Unfortunately, this type of foundational analysis is not allowed to be a part of the conversations on this subject in Vermont Government. Emotional fear-mongering by the Democrat majority has produced unaffordable and impossible policies with the Vermont Taxpayers expected to be responsible to pay the bills.
The State of Vermont is listed as one of the top 10 states that is in the worst financial condition. What are those in the Vermont General Assembly doing to address this?
Rather than engaging in some practical and foundational actions Vermont can take to become financially stable, the Dems/Progs are doubling down and irresponsibly pushing to spend Billions on their extreme and unworkable climate policies.
Let’s Hope those newly elected Stand Up and Speak Out for sanity, so they don’t succeed!
Consider what Germany and France can teach us about the necessity of having stable baseload energy produced by nuclear generation. Germany got rid of theirs and is now regretting it while France has wisely kept their nuclear power plants. Or closer to home compare California and Florida. California has gone hook line and sinker down the so called “green” energy cul de sac and has brown outs and black outs as a result while Florida governed by a far more sensible energy policy does not have such problems.
Wake up Vermont ! We should NOT BE following California down that path.
Canada is sending the electricity to New York City. You cave monkeys can go pound sand or ride your bike and walk.
I am not yet versed on the half life of nuclear waste from upgraded cold fusion, if anyone is please reply.. If it is anything beyond a single generation or 3 it is entirely and wholly irresponsible and selfish. At Vermont Yankee, We got 40 years of electricity that claimed itself clean, but because of its invisible and NOT clean radiation, gave us (here in Windham County) frogs with 3 legs and daisies with multiple heads, and more, and thousands of years of danger to reflect upon and babysit. We have hydrogen technology (Engines on water), we have suppressed technology, we have sand batteries, we have Russian mass stoves, we have better building techniques (earthship style and more), building with natural substances, and we have a local farming sector to expand exponentially upon. BOO to those who create these windmills that harm pollinators and people and birds alike with the low hum pollution, not to mention the tons of concrete and disruption of the mountain tops, Boo to those cementing our future to the utility companies and their on purpose disrupted electric flow (to make people pay higher than would normally flow), and to the agenda behind the electrification to undermine our freedoms by having the locus of control of our movement be within the electric utilities, and Boo to the legislatures that set a boon for litigants who sue when we do not meet it, all a greater tax burden. BOOO to you all. Yay to those of us who are up to a whole new way.
I agree with you. Just about every reactor in existence leaks, and we have fukishima which will be polluting the earth for more than 40,000 years. Many places they just turn off the sirens so they don’t “scare the public”. The industry is proven itself to be untrustworthy time and time again. I’m not sure why the folks here support the current designs so wholeheartedly. The engineers build these things to speck, then later on politicians vote on weather or not they can continue to run them way outside of the engineered specifications. Also, we can’t control fault lines and other natural disasters.
I do believe there are excellent technologies to make nuclear power safe. I can’t find it, but I believe they were even able to make some type of fuel cells with depleted uranium without moving parts. There are many better designs out there that are extremely low risk. I found this design which sounds interesting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zU2UFsnS2aA and seems better than what we are using today.
The VT Legislators need to address and answer each of the sighted examples of how wind and solar would work for VT/NE with the math! Also, tell us why VT Yankee 2 is not the best solution, in addition to reliable natural gas powered electricity.
Of course, none of this is really an issue because CO2 cannot drive the Earth’s warming or cooling at present concentrations in the atmosphere. Getting rid of “carbon” is a fool’s errand – “What historians will definitely wonder about in future centuries is how deeply flawed logic, obscured by shrewd and unrelenting propaganda, actually enabled a coalition of powerful special interests to convince nearly everyone in the world that CO2 from human industry was a dangerous, planet-destroying toxin. It will be remembered as the greatest mass delusion in the history of the world – that CO2, the life of plants, was considered for a time to be a deadly poison.” – R. Lindzen
YOU WIN!! Too bad no one in the VT government will ever be able to understand it. They are an incredible stupid lot voted in by even more incredibly unaware voters.
Agree with everything in this article and especially about the desirability of NG pipelines into VT for cost-effective electricity generation.However you are aware that NY has banned the construction of NG pipelines crossing its border into New England. I don’t know if that is a state law or a governor’s executive order. Nonetheless the ban stands today. It should be a high priority for our legislators to focus on reversing that policy…..but I am not holding my breath given our legislators previous ideological posturing.
Too many Dems/Progs in the Vermont Legislature are puppets for VPIRG, EAN (Energy Action Network), REV (Renewable Energy Vermont), etc.
Are they “puppets”, or is there something in it for them ????
I, and many of my new House member colleagues, both Dem and Rep, are in support of Steve’s suggestions and align with the Governor’s priorities. We were sent to Montpelier with a clear mandate. We hear you. We will do everything we can to make that happen.
A start, at least I hope so.
How did our legislators, our guardians and fiduciaries, fall so completely for this scam? Who sold them these lies? This boondoggle musty have cost the taxpayers a lot of money that could have been made better use of in many other places. Who do we hold accountable and make sure this never happens again?