News Analysis

‘Tariff-iying’: Vermont economy could lose $1 bil to tariffs

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Republished from the April 4 Advocacy Update of the Lake Champlain Chamber

by Austin Davis, LCC Director of Government Affairs

We’re experiencing unprecedented volatility at the federal level and significant disruptions locally.  This week foreshadowed monumental changes, both at the federal and state level, that will have lasting impacts for decades to come. 

The past week injected many variables into the Vermont economy. Conventional wisdom is Vermont’s economy never runs too hot or too cold, something that has held us back as we haven’t seen the growth in boom times yet protected us in financial slumps. 

Austin Davis
  • The caveat is that national slumps have traditionally meant more federal funds injected into the economy or at least steady federal funds, which had an outside impact on Vermont’s small economy
  • This time is proving different, as any economic downturn will be paired with cuts to federal funds. 

Hemorrhaging federal funds: This week saw more news of cuts of federal funding to Vermont – Vermont Food bank$16.7 million in COVID-era funding was clawed back (the equivalent of roughly 1% on a Vermont property tax bill) from the education fund, and the future of Vermont’s $23 million in LIHEAP is in question. 

Tariff-iying: The State Treasurer’s Office estimates Vermont households could see about $3,800 in additional costs per year due to tariffs, or approximately $1 billion annually in aggregate for Vermont, based on data from the Yale Budget Lab. Read more about that here. 

In the nation’s capitol, the President’s budget advocates are counting $600 billion in tariff revenue over the next decade to cover the cost of their tax package, which the President refers to as “one big beautiful bill.”

The U.S. Senate passed a procedural hurdle Thursday that allows them to move forward with their budget resolution under reconciliation.  

  • The package would raise the debt ceiling, make the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, and go further with another $1.5 trillion additional in tax cuts. 
  • To make the math work, the resolution instructs committees to find a minimum of $4 billion in savings, which is why you hear so much concern from observers about Medicaid.

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Categories: News Analysis

14 replies »

  1. Should we have asked countries to raise tariffs higher on American goods? Would we have been better off if we offshored more good jobs?

    Ross Perot was correct, nafta is the giant sucking sound of American jobs going overseas, out of the country. The uniparty hated him also and made sure no third party candidate could ever run against the uniparty again.

    Montpelier wants to change even less. We’ll see when the dust settles who was correct. Vermont needs to be doged like bees need honey, but the uniparty will never allow the budget to be cut. Their cuts will only be a cut in the increase of spending, but increase spending they surely will do, across both parties. The blob gets bigger.

    • Truth! That’s why Clinton the Coward signed NAFTA on his way out the door 😡

  2. When is the last time Vermonters came together in their communities to pray? The National Day of Prayer is just around the corner – May 1, is the first Thursday in May this year. Currently, S. Burlington, Richford, Montpelier, and Stowe have posted plans. Historically many of the 15 or so communities that have participated across denominational lines have posted events in the last week. Why not make plans now – meet at the Town Hall or town square or some other neutral denominational territory and cluster in small groups so all have a turn to voice their prayers? Catholics, Baptists, Methodists, UCC, Jews, Assembly of God and even doubters – it is time to lift voices and call upon God for assistance. To register a gathering in your community go to https://www.nationaldayofprayer.org/events/new-gathering

  3. I think we need to keep in perspective the whole economic picture and not pieces selected politically. First of all, a tariff IS a tax, and that means it is federal revenue for the coffers. Will it go to waste or something useful? That’s a moot point; the fact is it isn’t lost money, and it never was.

    The second thing is the point of a tariff, is that folks buy domestic. That means you, Vermonters, your economy, your autonomy, etc. etc.

    Third, these nations had (and are starting to finally negotiate) tariffs on us already! It’s totally hypocritical to demonize these new tariffs without pointing that out. Trump is merely leveling the playing field, very few of the media are pointing this out.

    Fourth, the tariffs have been – successfully – used as leverage in for example northern border security policy. It was reported right here on Vermont radio (The Morning Drive) by border patrol reps that yes, they have kicked up their efforts on the northern side since the threat of tariffs began. Which was specifically a goal Trump has indicated, and it worked!

    We all know (whether we admit it or not) that Trump is challenging the same corrupt establishment that all these Vermont hippies claim to be against. As the old song goes, they DID get fooled again, but they don’t wanna admit it.

  4. Those who listen to the negative nay-sayers and refuse to engage in critical thinking and facts, will not understand the long term big picture of President Trump’s implementation of tariffs.

    He is acting to obtain fairness for the American People with trade relationships around the world; and acting in America’s Overall Best Interests for the healthy restoration of industry, jobs, growth and survival for many years to come.

    Short term pains are to be expected.

  5. The sky is falling……the sky is falling! Government waste, corruption being uncovered and fait trade being implemented. Nothing to see here. Just partisan propaganda.

  6. I am not the least bit worried that I’ll have to spend up to $4000.00 more per year because of Trumps tariffs. I’m retired on a fixed income and I don’t have $4000.00 to spend. I’m still suffering from Bidenomics. I’m not worried that Trump will touch my SS. Trump repeatedly said he would not touch SS. I’m all for cutting out fraud in SS. I laugh at the media for reporting all the doom and gloom that Trump is trying to do when I know it is only fake news. Hey mainstream media , you have lost all credibility. We don’t believe you. Yes I voted for Trump. I’m willing to give him a chance. I don’t expect complete turn around results in less than 3 months.

    • I’m the same. I’m 74 on a fixed income as well! I’ll ride it out for sure! Better than living in a Socialist Country like we were headed towards the past 4 years!

    • When this blows up (and it will) people on fixed incomes won’t be able to own the libs anymore, they’ll only be able to rent them.

  7. People, please take the time to look into what this tariff scare is really all about. Who really are going to lose the most from the new tariffs? It ain’t us. Nope, it is The New World Order. I think it is about time we stated looking out for our own country and our own state and community. Anyone who has bothered to look at the facts instead of the fear petalled in some of the media outlets, you will quickly notice that we Americans pay a heavy toll for anything we ship overseas. In most cases many, many times what we charge for goods coming in. This is all about leveling the playing field so we can truly have an open market. Yes, zero tariffs for either side. There has been lots of damage done over the years, so it will take some pain and some time to level things out. You may have noticed that many countries already are dropping their tariffs to us. Stop the fear-mongering, it just makes the problems worse.

    • Thank You for also putting the Truth out there! That’s exactly what he’s doing and yes, many of the Countries are already wanting to negotiate. But the left hasn’t put that out there at all! America First🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

    • And stop being a Sanctuary State! Stop supporting illegals with our taxes and spend the money on our Citizens!