By Michael Stack
When Rep. Brian Cina (P-Burlington) told the rest of the House to “Read My Lips: Yes! New taxes!,” he demonstrated the truism, “belligerence is the truest sign of lack of ability.”
There are two types of power in this world: “People Power” and “Position Power”. People Power is real because people respect you and want to follow the way you walk through life. Position power is fleeting. As soon as you lose your position your initiatives become moot. My guess is Rep. Cina is confusing his position power with people power.
Whenever politicians start to believe their own propaganda (another colloquialism applies), they overplay their hand and, please bear with another metaphor, “get out over their skis.” Vermonters know how that ends, thud!
Big tax and spenders, beware Hauser’s Law
Here’s more sobering news for the supermajority. Before you start to spend all those tax dollars you’re anticipating, take a quick look at Hauser’s Law. While not an economic theory, I would choose seven decades of empirical observation over an academic exercise. William Hauser posited tax revenues at the Federal level have always been about 20% of GDP (see chart below) regardless of wide fluctuations in marginal tax rates. Simplistically, incomes and assets are mobile and if the peasantry believes the governing class is taking too large of a slice of the pie they legally avoid or shift income to reestablish this equilibrium.
The super wealthy pay the lion share of taxes and they can afford tax advisors. The less wealthy, well, they have their ways. Barter and cash transactions grow as the taxpayer sees what they believe to be an overreach by “social engineers hell bent on spending Vermonters hard earned money,” to quote Alison Despathy.
Only a quarter of Vermont property taxes are income sensitive. When you raise taxes on business (non-Homestead), they just pass that back onto the taxpayers in the form of higher prices. These are the stealthiest and most regressive taxes because they crush what little disposable income the lower income cohorts have left to spend. See my op-ed: Stack: The Vermont Taxpayer Wakes Up! – Vermont Daily Chronicle
Hauser’s Law says that dropping tax rates creates positive ripple effects. While the tax rate percentage declines, you actually take larger tax dollars into the treasury. As a wise old Portfolio manager told me in my investment career, “you take dollars to the bank not percents”.
Running out of Other People’s Money
As predicted by the “Iron Lady” Margaret Hilda Thatcher (MHT), It appears the super majority is running out of other people’s money. Train wreck legislation like Act 127 has accelerated the problem. The cost of unfunded mandates such as ACT 127 hit directly. Spoiler alert – those new property tax bills will be arriving in mail boxes in less than 5 months, in plenty of time for the next election.
The dead giveaway the social engineering punch bowl is running low is the recently introduced bill H.827. Specifically, this bill gets the camel’s nose under the tent of not only your earnings, but the next generations (your children’s) earnings.
It proposes to tax the unrealized capital gains you may have worked all your life on to accumulate and pass onto your children. Spoiler alert #2 the Super majority thinks they have a better plan for your children’s inheritance. Bill H.827, combined with a plethora of other business and high net worth taxes, are taking a state that already ranks poorly from a taxing regime perspective to dead last.
Face it folks, as Hauser law shows us there is only so much abuse a populace will accept. There is only so much that maple syrup, foliage and bucolic scenery can buy you. We are watching the destruction of a unique ideal and brand “Vermont”, historically a symbol of what is right, pragmatic and sensible. Unfortunately, it is being replaced by a set of “beggar thy neighbor” behaviors that you would more likely expect from a state like New Jersey.
Prediction time
What we are witnessing is the behavior that accompanies a peaking in political power. That peaking results from the elimination of healthy checks and balances. The feeding frenzy of bad legislation and more importantly the blatant attitude, accompanying the rush, is textbook.
The best current analogy I can make is the immigrant caravans that have accelerated pace and ramped the ferocity with which they are approaching our boarders. They know the door is closing. Belligerence is not only a sign of lack of ability it is a sign of lack of confidence. My prediction, the average Vermonter regardless of party has had enough. The end to the tax and spend circus act in Montpelier draws near.
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Categories: Commentary, Legislation, State Government
“The end to the tax and spend circus act in Montpelier draws near.” We can only hope that the rich trust fund babies that rule this state, and have never done a day of real “work” in their lives run out of money before hard working Vermonters do. That would be poetic justice, but I won’t hold my hand over my ___ waiting for it.
Mr. Stack: Thank you. I hope you can see fit to implement a civics class explaining your perspective in your BFUHS curricula. Your point of view is priceless. And I sincerely hope your fellow board members and school administrators consider it too. If there is anything I can do to help in this regard, please let me know.
Jay I could learn a lot from you. Stackmichaelp@yahoo.com if you have any interest.
Thank you
In New York, they kicked “Governor” Hochul out of Slain officer Jonathan Diller’s memorial service. They’ve lost the People. They’ve lost law enforcement, just as the Soviets did in 1989. The tectonic plates are indeed shifting.
It seems that all the leading liberal/socialist states have or are clamoring for a “wealth tax”, so Vermont’s legislative marxists need one too. We shall see what the USSC rules in Moore vs. US. The problem with ms. kornheiser’s wealth tax, is that it will result in out migration of the very folks she depends on to collect tax from. Despite the 4 year inclusion clause written into the bill, it’s time to pack up and leave for even the not obviously wealthy. The family farm, with land may be valued at 10M. The small business may have a value of 10M, while really being just a small business- Real estate? yup- you’re gonna get it too. cina and kornheiser want a cut. Still kornheiser and cina gleefully wish to extract dollars from these folks- and undoubtedly cause distress sales of assets. It might, ms. kornheiser been wise to have considered the cost to Vermont taxpayers to defend these cases in court.
The usual excuse from the legislature of “unintended consequences” just won’t cut it this time. The marxist, the low information voter and bernie lovers may see this as “putting it to the rich” but most Vermont voters see it for what it is- a money grab of the lowest most regressive kind. Written by NGO lobbyists, with an axe to grind- and put forth by power hungry politicians.
Bring a business to Vermont? No way when this passes. Retire to Vermont? Nope. won’t happen.
To all the spending ” freaks ” working under the “Golden Doom ” , and that’s being kind they better realize that the taxpayer ” Money Tree ” isn’t going to live forever.
Wake up people, save the state vote them out !!
there is no money tree/// just the federal reserves printing press/// how did you like the currency reset and the higher inflation/// some people need to get beyond the vermont bubble////
Mr. Stack, Thank you for your writing. Death and taxes… is this the death knell for Vermont ? ESG funds, to wit and which Vermonts idealogical power brokers and supermajority are umbilically attached, has taken a reported 14 Trillion dollar hit. Major financial firms including JP Morgan, BlackRock pulled back on ESG commitments to such funds such as Climate Action 100 and others. It is not clear if Vermont is vested in Climate Action 100 or others. Vermont’s neighbor New Hampshire has two bills making ESG investments with tax payer dollars a felony. Vermont’s whopping pension debt and other investments in the all in ESG 2030 climate change agenda, puts tax payers at deep risk. This also is simultaneous to Vermont’s power brokers and supermajority calling for divestment from oil/gas investments and doubling down on ESG et ali. The super majority policies oblige tax payers to pay for ESG and 2023 agenda that is failing in returns and projections. Does Vermonts all in to ESG #climatechange 2030 and 30 x 30 agenda, that funded by tax payer dollars create yet another “ unintended consequence” and deadly liability ?
Libby, et al: the ‘death knell’, not just for Vermont but for everyone, is the decrease of ‘self-determination’ in conjunction with increasing authoritarianism. In other words, it’s the tendency to do what others tell us to do, even when we inherently understand that the directives may have, let’s say, dubious consequences. E.G., the behavior analyzed in the Milgram Experiments (look it up).
A litmus test: Consider Article 9 of the VT Constitution. “Previous to any law being made to raise a tax, the purpose for which it is to be raised ought to appear evident to the Legislature to be of more service to community than the money would be if not collected.”
If someone, anyone, proposes a joint venture, in which they’re asking you to contribute time and resource (i.e., invest in), first ask what the ‘return’ will be on that investment. How will it benefit anyone? How will it benefit you? And how long will it be until the benefit is realized (i.e., what’s the ROI – Rate of Return)?
If those soliciting your participation aren’t explicit in this regard, at least not to your satisfaction or comfort level, ask if the proposal includes an ‘opt out’ provision. In other words, can you stand aside and not participate in the venture, at least until you can determine for yourself if the investment provides a return as proposed?
If the venture advocates say fine, and that all parties understand that the cost to invest later may be higher, when the proposal’s returns are proven to be more certain, when the risk of the investment is minimized, the proposal is more likely to be legitimate.
But if the venture advocates tell you that you must invest, that you are socially obligated to do so despite the risks, that there is an emergency you don’t have the expertise to recognize, or that the advocates are claiming that they are only making the proposal to help you or save you, you better run for cover. Snake oil comes in many forms.
C. S. Lewis described this phenomenon as well as anyone.
“This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be ‘cured’ against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.”
“”a quarter of Vermont property taxes are income sensitive. “‘ And these are mostly senior citizens who, mostly don’t pay taxes on their limited income, but every penny they have is taxed for the schools — when they have no kids, have paid their way in life, and their income will never grow. Meanwhile people who have kids get exemptions for them, so they are essentially paying less then the old folks that have little. Where is the equity they commies keep talking about? And why do the liberals refuse to even discuss this???
…why do the liberals refuse to even discuss this???
Because their jobs and livelihoods are inextricably attached to their ability to confiscate your property and income. Of course they see themselves as Robin Hood, robbing the rich to give to the poor – in their constant struggle to think well of themselves. Meanwhile, they take their cut too.
They’re thieves. Period. End of discussion.
Here’s the important line in your comment, ” but every penny they have is taxed for the schools”. That’s not all that’s taxed, we can’t wipe our kitchen counters or our butts without paying a tax to the state (Formerly known as the King in days gone by). We can’t travel in our vehicles, eat out, buy liquor or beer and anything we buy on the internet is taxed no matter where you buy it from.
Almost every dollar we spend, the state gets a cut. I’m semi-retired, why because I have to keep working to meet my obligations of living, eating and hopefully having some pleasure without the state getting what little is left. It really is time to bring out the pitch folks and force these people out of office, figuratively speaking.
All we really have to do is stop voting for these incompetent legislators. Some of them have been screwing things up for 40 years. That’s just about how long it’s taken incrementally to get to this point in time. The complete ruination of Vermont is at hand. If you can’t see this through your rose-colored political glasses, you are an idiot and you supported the destruction of this state by voting with your feelings.
The situation we’re in now is in good part caused by people who have moved here from MA, NY, NJ, CT, CA, OR, and just about every other liberal state you can think of. If I’ve seen it once, I’ve seen it two dozen times. Rather than them adapting to us, we’re forced to adapt to them – and all the crazy politics they bring with them.
Oh, it started innocently enough… we wanted their tourist dollars. But once they got here, they liked it better than where they came from (who wouldn’t?) and started running for office. And what happened? Town by town, this cascaded over the last 40 years or so, building and building and building upon itself, until they reached the critical mass that is ruining our state today. Of course, not so ironically. they turned our beautiful state into exactly what they had wherever they came from.
What I’m trying to say is, folks, this situation is self-inflicted. Until we understand this simple fact, nothing can change. Look, I’m all for someone who wants to move here, lays low, and adapts to the culture without trying to change it. And it does change – but at a well thought out, common sense, “Yankee” (slower) kind of pace.
So what do we do now? Well, we can start by seeing where people running for office are from. Were they born and raised in VT, northern NH, non-southwestern ME? Great. That means probably 80% of them “get it”. Were they born and raised “away”? Use extreme, and I do mean EXTREME caution before you elect them to anything. And if whatever candidate for whatever position passes that test? In my mind at least, there’s a good probability they’ll do a decent job.
Is the above a popular view? No. Is it a practical view? Is it a populist view? Yes and yes. I do believe that people born and raised wherever should be governed by similar people. Is that perfect? No, but it’s a vast improvement over where we are now.
We still have a slim chance of voting these D/Ps out who have led our state astray. Use your voice while you still can. Vote with your wallet while you can still (barely) afford to live here. You won’t have many more chances. Time is running out.
Just tellin’ it like it is… I know no other way.
I’d really like to believe the prediction in this article, but I’m really beginning to doubt that people will ever wake up. I sat by and watched the people of my town pass a school budget of 26k per student in a little one horse town of about 1800. Apparently there is no such thing as too high, not when it comes to the sacred cow of public education. We never used the public school, we homeschooled all four right through high school. One year while paying my taxes I somewhat jokingly suggested I should get a discount because I wasn’t impacting the school, when a part time teacher told me that I was actually taking money away from the school. In her mind, if my kids were in school that would get the school more block grant money, so by homeschooling I was cutting into their gravy train. One would think that Vermonters would have had enough already, but it seems too many are tied into the dysfunctional abusive relationship and just keep going back for more…we’ll see in November.