Commentary

Soulia: What the numbers show about race and crime

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by Dave Soulia, for FYIVT.com

In May 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice quietly released a detailed statistical bulletin titled Criminal Victimization, 2023, summarizing violent crime trends across the country. It is the most recent official federal data available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), and while it received little mainstream attention, the findings are extensive — and at times, uncomfortably revealing.

Drawing on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), the report covers a wide swath of crimes, from simple assaults to robbery and sexual violence, using both demographic breakdowns and victim perceptions of the offender. While most headlines focus on crime “upticks” or general trends, buried within the tables is a deeper pattern the federal government rarely highlights — and which news outlets even more rarely report: the racial dynamics of violent crime in America.

The Big Picture: Crime Rates Falling, Slowly

First, the good news. Violent crime remains far lower than it was in the early 1990s. In 2023, just under 6 million violent incidents were reported through the NCVS — meaning about 1.36% of Americans over the age of 12 experienced some form of violent victimization. That’s down from 1.51% in 2022, and much lower than the 3–4% range typical in the 1990s.

The most common form of violent crime continues to be simple assault, making up over 60% of incidents. Firearm involvement was reported in about 7.6% of violent crimes, and strangers committed just over 36% of reported incidents.

In total, the report paints a picture of a nation that has become, by historical standards, significantly safer — but still faces persistent violence, particularly in certain communities.

Victims and Offenders: What the Data Says

One of the most revealing sections of the report is Table 13, which estimates the number of violent crimes by the race or ethnicity of both the victim and the offender — as perceived by the victim.

This isn’t guesswork. The NCVS is the largest crime survey in the United States, based on interviews with over 200,000 people annually, and it’s been conducted in largely the same format for decades.

According to the 2023 report:

  • Black-on-White violent incidents: ~385,400
  • White-on-Black violent incidents: ~117,800
  • Hispanic-on-White incidents: ~260,120
  • White-on-Hispanic incidents: ~186,960

In terms of raw numbers, White victims experience far more interracial violence than Black or Hispanic victims — and the numbers confirm a long-standing pattern: Black offenders commit violent crimes against White victims at significantly higher rates than the reverse.

Even more striking is what happens when you adjust these figures per capita.

Blacks make up about 12.5% of the U.S. population, while Whites account for over 58%. Yet despite being a far smaller group, Black-on-White crime occurs more than three times as often as White-on-Black — and per capita, it is roughly 15 times more likely.

The pattern also holds for Hispanic-on-White violence, which occurs at roughly four times the per capita rate of White-on-Hispanic violence.

Intraracial Crime: Still Most Common

It’s important to note — and the report does — that most violent crime remains intraracial. That is, people tend to harm those of their own group more than others.

For example:

  • White-on-White: ~1.07 million incidents
  • Black-on-Black: ~856,400 incidents

Those figures are still larger than any of the interracial combinations, which makes sense given patterns of residential segregation and social proximity.

But the key point is this: when interracial violence does occur, it is not symmetrical, and not even close.

Limitations of the Data: What the Numbers Don’t Show

While the 2023 NCVS report offers the most comprehensive look at crime victimization in the country, it’s important to recognize what it doesn’t measure.

The NCVS captures crimes that are reported by victims in household surveys — but it excludes two major categories:

  1. Homicide, which by definition has no living victim to survey
  2. Institutionalized populations, such as inmates, homeless individuals, and those in group quarters or long-term care

That means the report misses a significant portion of urban crime, particularly in areas where trust in law enforcement is low and crimes go unreported. It also doesn’t fully reflect the violent crime dynamics among marginalized or transient populations, where crime rates may be even higher.

Additionally, the offender’s race is based on the victim’s perception, not on confirmed arrest or conviction data. While still useful for understanding patterns, this can introduce some uncertainty.

In short, the NCVS is a powerful tool — but it’s not the whole picture. It tells us a lot about how crime is experienced, but less about how it is prosecuted or prevented.

Final Thoughts

The Criminal Victimization 2023 report isn’t flashy. It doesn’t offer sensational headlines or moral crusades. It simply documents what people across the country report — who’s hurting whom, how often, and under what circumstances.

And if we’re serious about public safety, criminal justice reform, and race relations, then we need to be honest about what the numbers show — even when they don’t conform to political narratives.

This report is the government’s own work. Its findings are clear. It’s up to the public to read it — and to demand that policymakers do the same.


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Categories: Commentary, Public Safety

7 replies »

  1. The left howls about “following the science”, but the mature, established science of statistics is off limits for use when observing human behavior when race, ethnicity or culture is a factor.

  2. Nope! Nuh-huh! It just can’t be so. More whites are victims to black crimes than black victims to whites? Nope! Nuh-uh! It just can’t be.

  3. I think if you look at a more root cause, I bet you’ll find a bigger common denominator.

    What are the percentages of criminals from broken or severely dysfunctional families?

    I suspect it matters not what race but what is the family. And we should delve even a bit deeper to an even more controversial and little talked about statistic.

    What is the difference between single father household vs. single mother household and crime statistics? I would wager it will never come to light, but utubers who were banned from the internet know it well. The largest, most violent criminals come from single mother families, whereby the mother is inflicting violence upon their children.

    Here’s the issue, we are looking for love and acceptance in the wrong places. This is why young men join gangs, they can’t express their pain, and it comes out in violence.

    This is why young women become pregnant, looking for love and acceptance from a baby without concern for the baby’s well-being.

    This is not to say some single parents do better than married couples and come married couples do worse than single parents. The brokenness across our nation is of epic proportions, we try and solve our broken ness with sex, drugs, risky behaviour, and truth be told there is a person who can heal us all, and when we are healed, we can then take on a new relationship. rather than trying to fix our brokenness through people who are doing the same and we’re on auto pilot, having do idea why our marriages fail.

    And if you look on a bigger societal level, you will find an even bigger correlation between, who do you follow. What are the foundational blocks for your society?

    There is but one building block and looking across the globe, there really is no other choice, the results are drastically different. Our country was based upon those ancestors following Jesus Christ, not through a theocracy, aka Catholic Church….it wasn’t because of our natural resources, great as they are. Compare and contrast. What countries won’t allow people to read the Book of John and Acts, who do not believe or follow Jesus Christ.

    The agnostics and atheists and other religions get a free ride. Is there any other democracy or country that’s better? Why?

    Jesus Christ can heal our brokenness, our countries brokenness and forgive us our sins, there is no other answer to our problems. TGBTG

    • Violence is the not the work of the Holy Spirit, that I can assure you. It’s us being unable to control our natural state, we are being influenced by the flesh, by our pride, it’s the root of so many conflicts, pride. God hates pride for good reason.

  4. Now sit back and define what is often referred to as a “hate crime”, and look again at these statistics. While you’re at it define “systemic racism”. Things don’t seem to add up.

    • Hence the current push to get every city & town to sign the ‘non- discrimination statement’, so they can move to Step Two – implicit bias training so we can pretend these facts don’t exist.