by Sam Douglass

A July 21 poll published by the University of New Hampshire reports that Governor Phil Scott’s approval rating has fallen below 50%, his lowest rating since university polling began surveying Vermont in 2022. 

The poll found that 48% of Vermont residents approve of Scott’s job performance, while 43% disapprove. Eight percent were neutral or unsure. 20 percent of respondents strongly disapproved of Scott, whereas only 15% strongly approved of the governor. The poll surveyed 1,119 Vermont residents online between July 15 and 20. It included 954 likely general election voters, 560 likely Democratic primary voters and 220 likely Republican primary voters. 

This decline in approval comes as Scott prepares to seek a sixth term as governor and is running unopposed for the Republican nomination. If reelected, he would become the longest-serving governor in Vermont history, beating out Howard Dean who served from August 1991 to January 2003. Scott won reelection in 2024 with 73% of the vote.

Among respondents who disapprove of Scott’s job performance, his handling of education was the most common reason cited. Coincidentally, education is also cited as the most common reason for approval of his performance. His handling of healthcare was the second most common issue, followed by respondents who cited poor leadership. Scott’s approval remains strongest among Republicans, with 60% approving of his performance. Forty-five percent of Democrats and 45% of independents also said they approve of the governor.

Despite the decline in approval, Scott leads both Democratic candidates seeking to challenge him. In a hypothetical matchup with challenger Amanda Janoo, 44% of general election voters said they would support Scott, with only 33% for Janoo. Seventeen percent were undecided. Against Democratic challenger Aly Richards, Scott led 43% to 35%, with 17% undecided.

The Democratic primary itself remains unsettled. Fifty-two percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they are undecided about who they will support. If the primary were held today, 26% said they would vote for Janoo, while 19% said they would vote for Richards. Three percent selected another candidate.

Both Democratic candidates remain largely unknown among likely Democratic primary voters. Fifty-five percent said they did not know enough about Janoo to rate her, while 56% said the same about Richards.

The poll also reported on several other races.

In the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, former Lt. Governor Molly Gray leads the race with 39% support among likely Democratic primary voters. Ryan McLaren came second with 11%, followed by Esther Charlestin with 9%. Forty-one percent remained undecided. McLaren’s support increased from the UNH poll released in early July, when he received 7% support. This latest poll places him ahead of Charlestin in the Democratic primary.

In the Lt. Governor primary, the top reason for respondants supporting their chosen candidate is “prior experience,” at 31%.

Gray also leads Republican incumbent Lt. Gov. John Rodgers in a hypothetical general election matchup, 49% to 29%. While prior experience appears to be the defining issue in the primary election, an election between the former and current Lt. Governor may fall along other defining characteristics, like party affiliation or key endorsements. 

In Vermont’s congressional race, Republican Gerald Malloy leads Mark Coester in the Republican primary, according to the poll. Both Republican candidates trail Democratic incumbent Rep. Becca Balint in general election matchups.