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by Rob Roper
When Julie Moore, Secretary of Natural Resources, said the Clean Heat Standards “carbon credit” tax on home heating fuels could drive up costs by 70 cents per gallon, the advocates of the program shouted her down and said, “Wait for the official analysis done by the real experts, you know-nothing, political hack!” (I’m consolidating and paraphrasing words of multiple commentators.)
When the draft report from the official Potential Study indicated the CHS could lead to an over $3.00 increase, those same advocates told us not to pay any attention because those weren’t the final numbers, and changes were afoot. Well, now the final potential study report is done, the afooted changes are in, and the official cost impact of the Clean Heat Standard could lead to as much as a $4.03 surcharge on top of existing home heating fuel prices. That means if the Clean Heat carbon tax were in effect today, a gallon of home heating oil would cost $7.54. Kerosene over $8.00. Fun to think about as the leaves begin to turn colors!
The study’s full breakdown of low/high estimates for the price impacts on heating oil, kerosene are $1.79 to $4.03, and for propane $.0.94 to $2.12. So, Moore’s outrageous estimates turned out to be way low.
But do you know whose estimates were not way low? The Ethan Allen Institute’s. Writing in February of 2023 – over a year and a half ago – then EAI president Myers Mermel stated:
But the net result of our own “really rough” math using Moore’s model with our inputs is that fuel costs will not increase by 70 cents per gallon under the Clean Heat Standard; they will increase by over $3.50 to $4 per gallon. Some renovation cost data indicate the actual amount required to be passed through on a surcharge could increase fuel costs by more than $5 per gallon.
Nailed it!
He testified to this data later that year to the house and senate committees of jurisdiction, who not very politely yawned and shooed him off. This is Déjà vu all over again as I remember when another EAI board member, Wendy Wilton, then Treasurer for the city of Rutland, pegged the astronomical cost of what Single Payer Healthcare would be one weekend sitting at her kitchen table using Google and an Excel spreadsheet. She too was yawned and shooed, but surely got some satisfaction when Single Payer fantastically imploded under the weight of the number she predicted.
And here’s the question that both of these examples beg: why did it take the so-called experts three years and several million dollars of wasted taxpayer money to arrive at a ballpark figure anyone with a calculator and a functioning brain could have – and did – arrive at over their morning coffee? Could it be that these ideologically driven fantasy projects are more about providing political platforms, salaries, and fundraising opportunities for politically connected cronies? Hmmmm.
But I digress… Back to the issue of the moment: the fate of the Clean Heat “Rube Goldberg” carbon tax scheme.
Here’s the problematic box the climate evangelists have painted themselves into: The Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA), which they passed over the Governor’s veto in 2020, mandates that we meet certain greenhouse gas reduction measures by 2025, 2030, and 2050. The up to $4.00 per gallon surcharge is what it will take to do all the things necessary to reach those goals in just the thermal (home heating) sector. If the Clean Heat Standard doesn’t go forward, something similar and likely just as costly will have to take its place – unless the GWSA is also repealed.
The Clean Heat carbon tax can be stopped in 2025 if enough Republicans are elected to the house and/or senate to sustain a gubernatorial veto of the go/no-go vote on the CHS that must take place next session, after this November’s elections. Currently Republicans hold just 37 of 150 house seats. They need 51 to sustain a veto. They hold just 7 of 30 senate seats and need 11 to sustain a veto. That’s what it will take to stall the CHS and its potential $8.00 per gallon heating fuel… temporarily.
But to repeal the GWSA? That would certainly require Republican majorities of at least 76 in the house and 16 in the senate. A tall order, voters! But maybe the prospect of a $2000 carbon tax every time you fill up your 250 gallon fuel tank will be motivation enough to pull it off!
Two important Clean Heat Standard Surveys:
Vermont Daily Chronicle is asking candidates how they will vote come January when the next legislature will decide whether or not to move forward with the Clean Heat Standard. So far just under 70 candidates have responded — only three of whom are Democrats. The rest are hiding. So, here is a link to VDC’s spreadsheet of who responded (or didn’t) and how, along with email addresses. If your candidates did not respond email them and find out how they intend to vote! Again, HERE IS THE LINK.
And the Vermonters for Affordable Heat want to know what YOU think about this policy. Please make your voice hear! Take their survey of the general public HERE.
- Rob Roper is a freelance writer with 20 years of experience in Vermont politics including three years service as chair of the Vermont Republican Party and nine years as President of the Ethan Allen Institute, Vermont’s free market think tank.
Share Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics
Event Notes: Rob Roper will be speaking on October 1, at the Wyckoff Sugarhouse, 18 Catamount Ln, Smugglers Notch, VT on “The Policies Making Vermont Unaffordable: A Look at what what Montpelier has been up to and has in store for VT taxpayers.” 5pm meet and greet with local candidates with the presentation beginning around 5:45 – 6pm.
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Categories: Commentary
Will VT lawmakers drive up heating oil to $8.00/gal in bid to save planet?
Unless Republicans gain enough seats in the election, yes.
This is absolutely unsustainable and will be devastating on the middle and lower class. Seniors living off social security will not be able to afford to heat their homes. My home uses a pellet stove, which requires carrying 40 pound bags of pellets into our home and loading the hopper. I use oil as a backup heat source and for hot water.
Assuming the 7 incumbent Republican Senators are re-elected, and Democratic Senator Irene Wrenner who also voted to sustain Governor Scott’s veto of the CHS, we need three more Republican Senate candidates to win their election.
Republicans need to pick up four senate seats to be able to sustain a veto of the CHS rules the Public Utilities Commission comes up with. But to actually repeal the Clean Heat Standard (Act 18) requires new legislation that almost certainly would require Republican majorities of at least 76 house seats (up from current 37) and 16 senate seats (up from 7), or 15 plus Republican John Rodgers as LTG tie-breaker.
So will Vermont’s Stupid Majority push for this boondoggle, I wouldn’t put it past them as this is their agenda and you don’t matter.
Years ago ” we the people ” handled these non-responsive ” politicians in a different way when they didn’t listen to the concerns of its citizens, Tar & Feathers, for public display, and then ran them out of town on a rail………this will be an excellent U-tube
video, so others can help clean up their states from the progressive nonsense!!
It will only take a few before the remaining stooges fall in line with the wishes of its
citizens for safety & financial security and not an agenda………… I have the feathers.
Wake up people, they don’t care.
Isn’t this article drastically illuminates the very stupid, no sense, uncaring, aloof, reckless, mind blogging lunacy that Montpelier Liberals possess that don’t give a damn for people and the state. Completer dunce with a “I feel good” (negative) voting record who fabricate manuscripts of their achievements for public consumption. They don’t exhibit practical intelligence only posturing to obtain power and control. If confronting them they threaten IRS involvement against you as KG in a comment mentioned, Brian Cina originally from NJ who graduated with an A.B. in Music. Some politician. He’s ” Cina is a community organizer and activist” Cina is also a musician and performance artist. This is exactly who VT doesn’t need, loves to throw his weight around and threaten people.. His site::
https://legislature.vermont.gov/people/single/2022/27162
Stated this as it shows what mentality is in Montpelier.
Too many Vermont residents run to the polls to vote that very nice democrat candidate in. This is their reward.
None of my friends who have trust funds are worried about this.
I may put in baseboards, but under no circumstances will I purchase a “heat pump.”
Do they care about their neighbors? Who is going to provide service for them in auto shops, lawn maintenance, home repair, grocery stores, salons, gas stations, restaurants, etc. when all the workers move if VT legislature approves the CHS in January 2025?
The trust fund kids will find their funds depleting quickly when the rug pull comes. They likely don’t consider the fact that a majority of fuels are imported through shipping channels clogged with war ships and rebel forces. The fact our fuel sources, including the “greentard” supplies come from foreign countries. Doesn’t matter the price if the ports are empty or blocked. America does not run on Dunkin’ or Starbucks. Is Starbucks coffee made with municipal water? Imagine paying $8 for a coffee brewed in chemically polluted water. Here’s your sign.
Supply chains matter and they will snap in an instant leaving many with few options if any. All the threats of cyber attacks and terrorist attacks will make this winter one for the ages. Our legislature and Administration will face the consequences as all others. They know not what they have done or what they have yoked themselves into. Good times!
This bill may resolve the housing crisis as Vermonters flee the state. These Progressives that are in power are insane. All of these “green energy” bills won’t make a bit of difference other than bankrupt us. Wake up people, start voting Republican.
I’m a Democrat and I agree: Wake up people, start voting Republican.
The problem in the senate, Chittendon and Washington counties. Orange county Sen. Mark McDonald (D), “Let them buy more blankets if they don’t like it”. And this Sen. Cena a musician forcing his arrogance on everyone. 11 liberal arrogant votes out of 30 right there.
The arrogance of the others is proven by their reluctance to answer the VDC questionnaire. Vermont, the land of the Liberal trust funders and layabouts, one has money someone else made and the other has enough to get by without working by the money confiscated by state tax laws and failed progressive policies. Neither one is concerned about $8.00 heating oil. More arrogance! And the regular working people vote for this out of ignorance thinking the democrats are helping them. Wow!
The democratic voting base suffers from Stockholm Syndrome.
Cut out the middle man. Remove these big money lobbyists from the statehouse> Stop funding entities that are not for the people. Start voting in people “for the people”, not foreign entities.
By and large, Vermonters are practical. In the face of doubling, tripling, quadrupling their fuel costs, many of them will turn to good old wood-stoves. But, many of them will not have the ultra-high efficiency, catalytic converter wood stoves. Those stoves will belt out smoke that is higher in greenhouse gases and particulate pollution than in now the case with oil burners.
How about that nasty law of unintended consequences?
Dem-Prog Groupthink just gave missed that one!