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And what are the right lessons?
by Rob Roper
Phil Scott is by some accounts the most popular governor in the United States with an approval rating of around eighty percent. Ergo, lots of political pundits and big dollar donors who want to change the direction of state policy advise aspiring politicians to “be like Phil” to get elected. Yes and no. But mostly no.
People seem to forget, though I don’t know how, that Phil Scott built his massive name recognition not as a politician, but as a celebrity race car driver in the county where he was first elected to the state senate. So, he had a personal, positive relationship with his constituency before they had to consider him as a politician. Correct Phil Scott lesson: the best candidates are already well known, respected, and liked by a majority of voters before ever putting themselves forward as a candidate.
This kind of celebrity status, however, does not apply to the overwhelming majority of people who end up running for office, and it isn’t enough in circumstances that Phil Scott has never faced in his long political career: dislodging an incumbent. Don’t believe me? Ask Stewart Ledbetter. Before voters will consider voting for a challenger, they have to first believe that the incumbent deserves to be fired. No Phil Scott campaign has ever had to make that case. Lesson: he provides no lessons here.
The conventional wisdom is that Phil Scott’s electoral success is because he is “a moderate,” whatever that means. But again, people seem to forget that when he ran and won his biggest and most competitive race, his first for Governor against Sue Minter, he put forward a very conservative agenda. His top issue was tying Minter’s support for a carbon tax on gasoline and diesel around her neck like an anvil before tossing her into Lake Champlain. His other big issue: turning Minter’s support for expanding the state’s six percent sales tax to apply to services into a baseball bat aggressively bludgeoning her with it around her political kneecaps.
Scott also promised no new gun laws, and had the endorsement of Vermont Right to Life, not as a full-throated pro-lifer, but as a compromise, acknowledged pro-choice candidate who supported some commonsense restrictions on abortion. As an established incumbent facing token opposition, he was able to get away with betraying those constituencies – but not as a candidate in a competitive race. That’s a lesson! And if Republicans or even independent challengers want to take seat from incumbent Democrats, they cannot run on strategies suited to established incumbents facing token opposition.
To recap, Scott became governor by running a center-right campaign that focused on a handful of top hot button issues (No Carbon Taxes and No new sales taxes) that provided a sharp contrast to his opponent, and upon which an overwhelming majority of voters across party lines agreed with his positions. He did this while shoring up and energizing his Republican base. Lesson: this is the formula that defeated Sue Minter, a genuinely competitive Democrat in a genuinely competitive election — by nine friggin’ points.
Can this formula be repeated for down ticket Republicans 2024. Absolutely!
The Carbon Tax issue is even more potent today than it was in 2016 with the Clean Heat Standard – and its $17 billion price tag — up for a go/no go vote in 2025. Scott vetoed the bill in 2023 and almost every Democrat incumbent is on the record having both voted for it and voted to override that veto. There’s the anvil around the neck. This should be THE QUESTION every candidate is forced to answer – will you vote for a tax/fee/surcharge/whatever on heating fuels in January 2025?
And the baseball bat? Property taxes. Far more potent that the theoretical increase of the sales tax is the very real average 14 percent property tax increase we all just experienced. Again, all those Democrat incumbents are on the record voting to support the yield bill and rejecting the Governor’s proposals for a path to reform.
Add to this a generous sprinkling of all the other taxes, fees, and regulatory costs the Democrat/Progressive supermajority passed during the 2023-24 biennium – on payroll, on electricity, on internet-based services, at the DMV – topped off with the fact that while doing all of this they voted to more than double their own pay – and you have what should be the ingredients for a Republican landslide.
But it won’t just happen.
And here is my pitch to the folks who just blew a chunk of change trying to convince Vermont Democrat/Progressive primary voters to put moderates on the ballot for the general election. This is the John Rodgers lesson: if you want to save the state from absurd tax and regulatory policies, you have to show disaffected independents and Democrats that is not just okay, but imperative to switch to the Republican Party – or at least vote Republican at the state level.
https://www.facebook.com/Right4Vermont/videos/1536722190583592
The Democrats on the ballot for November were chosen by the most radical elements of their party. This is why they govern, and will continue to govern, as radicals — until they are replaced. Until you, the voter, are convinced the only solution is to fire them.
When in 2023 the Vermont Fuel dealers spent just $40,000 on a campaign to alert Vermonters that the Clean Heat Standard was coming up for a vote and that it might add 70¢ a gallon to the cost of heating oil it caused a seismic eruption of voter backlash. Unfortunately, it wasn’t an election year and that energy had nowhere to go. But this is an election year, and that issue is back on the table. Plus a couple more of potentially equal magnitude. So, go ahead and be Phil Scott if you must. But make sure it’s the Phil Scott from 2016.
Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com
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Categories: Commentary, State Government
This brings an important question up: is the job of a Governor to work on behalf of his supporters’ will, or that of the entire State of which he is Governor, Democracy is not supposed to be rule by political gangs, which unfortunately is how politics in this nation, and this state, seem to go of late. This leads to no meaningful progress in any direction, as the mission of the gangs are to undo all of the work of the ones they supplanted.
This brings an important question up: is the job of a Governor to work on behalf of his supporters’ will, or that of the entire State of which he is Governor, Democracy is not supposed to be rule by political gangs, which unfortunately is how politics in this nation, and this state, seem to go of late. This leads to no meaningful progress in any direction, as the mission of the gangs are to undo all of the work of the ones they supplanted.
when i get up in the morning i do not take orders from the vermont govie//// if he does not know what his job is, then get out of office//// stop screwing up the free market/// vermont is not my mother////
Rob,
You’re a talented and creative writer with a prominent public voice in Vermont politics. While your rights to free speech are respected, I encourage you to consider how non-violent language might enhance public dialogue. Many Vermonters read your columns, and avoiding depictions of murder or maiming of officials or candidates could positively impact the public dialogue.
✌🏼
Rep. Laura Sibilia
🙄🥱😴
Laura – Jesus himself said something about a millstone around the neck. And it had to do with children, Laura.
You don’t like language and Freedom of Speech? First Amendment? Is that troublesome to you? Wonder why.
Ms. Sibilia, is the carbon tax on gas and diesel not an anvil around the neck of the many Vermonters who disagree with your controversial rationale for those taxes?
Must be Roper is over the target….
We really need to remember sibila is one of the radicals and one of the gang leaders in Vermont’s Marxist left. Every one of the repugnant bills overridden into law this biennium has her vote tied to it.
Polite language hasn’t been spoken by her gang for quite some time.
You mean none-violent language like “…commonsense restrictions on abortion.” Since abortion results in the death of an unborn child wouldn’t it be more accurate to say commonsense restrictions on murder. But then the Left would presumably not get very much support for that, though I to wonder.
The first one is biblical reference – that is probably why Laura doesn’t know it. You, Laura have done so much damage to this state. Your votes are pricing us out of our homes we worked so hard to buy and maintain/ For me, it was three jobs. The climate bill you sent me that you sponsored was pure garbage, filled with unknown very possible negative consequences. Pure garbage. And now, because of policy you support, we are being SUED. How much are our taxes going to rise as a result of this? THIS is what you spend your time on – not fixing the convoluted education funding system, not getting rid of the 4/1 ratio of admin to student problem, not fixing the unsustainable teacher pension problem, not working on getting more housing into the state by getting rid of oppressive (dem/prog) regulations, not reversing bills allowing us to be sued, but a bunch of climate garbage that does nothing but make the cost of living in this state impossible and hurts our hard working business owners and does NOTHING for the climate. You need to resign in disgrace and let someone who is fiscally responsible take your place. Readers – look at what she concentrates on – language. That is what the Laura’s of the legislature do. Don’t look in the mirror at the catastrophic damage they are causing with their irresponsible votes, look at how Rob is describing them. SO typical of people like Laura. Please do us all a favor and leave the house. Dems/pros don’t know what unsustainable means, they don’t know what conflict of interest means – and they can’t do math. And we are punished as a result of their (your) ignorance. Please everyone – pray. Pray Laura is voted out.
Laura,
You’re not a talented and creative representative, though you unfortunately do have a prominent public voice in Vermont politics. While your rights to free speech-its content-aren’t respected, I encourage you to consider how non-Marxist language might enhance public dialogue. Many Vermonters endure your totalitarian schemes and avoiding depictions of an ideological Utopia or maiming of citizens inalienable rights could positively impact the public dialogue.
Tom Licata
Representative Sibilia, Perhaps you would care to let Vermonters know how multi-millions of dollars earmarked and disappeared over the past 16 years to address the issues you highlight on your re-election website: “I have championed policies that enable our communities to participate in a modern economy and adapt to climate change. Initiatives like the creation of Communications Union Districts (CUDs), the Vermont Community Broadband Board, and the Municipal Energy Resilience Program have brought significant investments to our communities.”
Appears to me our utility bills are higher than ever. The State is still not fully connected. Our eduction system is far too expensive and the results dismal. Crime is off the charts. Where are the good paying jobs? All the millions of dollars spent to make communities better and stronger. Where did all the money go, to whom and for what? Until those questions are answered, every legislator, administrator, and bureaucrat is nothing more than a liar and a thief.
I just went through a partial list of the laws that you support to impose on Vermonters..
That should have us screaming from the rooftops…
Even then I think it would fall on deaf ears..
Please don’t attempt to take away the only thing Vermonters can afford today. FREE SPEECH
When will politicians get it that Vermonters can’t take anymore?
Who would sit silently and be led to their financial death?
You have proven that you are the majority and Vermonters will take what you give us not what we deserve.
Sounds a lot like that guy McCormack that said Vermonters just need to get a blanket for Christ sakes if they can’t afford fuel.
I’ll say it for you… Vermonters just get a muzzle for Christ sakes…
I would have loved to have been privy to our forefathers heated conversations… I’ll bet they really got rough but look where it took us.
Good Lord… he certainly got his point across didn’t he? No milder language would have been as effective AT ALL
I forgot to add and get into the lack of progress on crime as well! And not addressing the VERY serious and dangerous problem of left wing judges putting us all in danger. This is our supermajority: We don’t have to do anything to fix the problems we’ve created for all of you but you’d better watch out how you call us out for our dismal failures. Again, they want to control YOUR language instead of doing THEIR job. Again readers: Pray.
You can rant all you want to about how not Conservative Phil Scott is but if you expect ANY Republicans to actually get elected in this state they will have to be in the moderate right category. That, my friend, is the reality in this state.
Framing the conversation is the problem, not republican ideals. Just look at word smith Laura Sibilia above, they can twist anything to their advantage. Yet she will surely say J6’rs and Trump should be locked up for life on criminal charges for trying to destroy our democracy…..yet we’re supposed to be a republic. And now Rob is completely a misogynist creep…. surely out to assault women on a regular basis.
We have to be wiser than snakes and more innocent than doves.
We have massive corruption, waste and fraud in this state, it would take but 3 hours going over the books and you could find 100’s of millions of dollars.
They are about power and money, money and power, but not for the people.
message to rep. laura sibilia //// how many back taxes are on the books in searsburg vermont//// i want to thank you for my increase in taxes in searsburg that are paid//// have you ever considered getting a real job and produce some thing of value//// ///// //// //// //// //// //// /// ////
Phil Scott, if he’s the “most popular” governor in the nation, we are in real trouble, my
problem, as a 73-year-old Conservative Vermonter, I have seen the decay of the state from within ” progressive ” politics year after year.
So where do we turn when we need to vote for Governor, Phil Scott is my only choice, I have voted for Scott every election, even though he would not be my first choice if we had another Conservative going head to head, I have questioned him three times on gun policies, and three times he did just the opposite on what he told me he was going to do, I take people at their word, trustworthy he not, he just another feckless politician trying keep his job
The Vermont Republican Party needs to get a candidate a real Conservative candidate
for Governor, and that’s not Phil Scott, the “most popular”, not in my book and if he’s the best the Vermont GOP has, that’s pretty pathetic. !!
Vermont is not California, but it’s headed that way, wake up people.
So vote for Kevin Hoyt. I did, and would again, if I still resided in VT. Oh wait, …. maybe I can still vote for him anyway!
Re: Phil Scott is by some accounts the most popular governor in the United States with an approval rating of around eighty percent.
If this is true, then by all means he should be running for President of the United States. President King Philip the Scott 1st Eunuch King of Castrati. With 80% popularity he should well exceed the 81 million votes Joe Biden got in 2020. Well at least he would win Vermont with all the stoopid voters we have here.
“And the world’s few… evil people have little power without the help of the world’s many stupid people. As a result, stupidly is a far greater threat than evil”.
Gurwinder Bhogal
“The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits”.
Joe Concha