I worry that they did.

by Rob Roper

When the legislature was voting on H.454, I was, while painting my house (fun!), listening to an audiobook on the battle of Gettysburg. And I can’t help but notice some unfortunate parallels for Republicans with their vote on that bill and Pickett’s Charge, the infamous suicidal attack by the Army of Northern Virginia over a mile of open, uphill ground to assault an entrenched position occupied by an outnumbering force. What do these two events have in common? Both were unnecessary, avoidable disasters for leaders who – inexplicably – somehow thought they were a good idea.

Vermont Republicans won a historic victory in 2024 by employing the humongously successful tactic of standing by while Democrats voted for unpopular legislation – the Clean Heat Standard, the property tax Yield Bill, DMV fee increases, a payroll tax, etc. – and then vocally siding with Vermonters by voting “no.” Moreover, Democrats shot themselves in the foot politically by putting the “check back” provision in the Clean Heat Standard that required a highly publicized discussion of the cost of their signature climate change law in an election year, and had the bad (if predictable) luck of seeing their past policy decisions blow up in the form of an unprecedented, massive property tax increase in that same election year.

In both cases, Republicans were able to tell the voters, “We didn’t vote for that. They did! And if you elect us, we’ll make sure nothing like this happens again.”

Senate President Pro Tem Philp Baruth (D/P Chittenden Central) recognized at the time what Republicans were doing — and that it was working — in an infamous venting of frustrations to his caucus. “What they [Republicans] do is wait for us to offer policy in this space, and then they line up against it with whatever the best argument is. The two arguments we most often hear is that it costs more than a dollar, and it will disrupt a little bit to a lot.” Yup! That’s what they did! And that’s why they won six senate seats and eighteen house seats and the Lieutenant Governor’s race.

So, one would think Republicans would have learned this is a winning strategy and smart blueprint for 2025-2026 as well. One would think that, but one would be wrong. And not just a little off base; 180 degrees opposite. Republicans on education “reform” are actually allowing Democrats to put them into a startlingly similar political kill-zone for the 2026 elections.

Republicans won in 2024 in great part by voting NO on the bills that would contribute to and/or codify the 14 percent (on average) property tax increase Vermonters received last summer and campaigning on providing relief. But instead of making property tax relief the focus of their legislative proposals in 2025 – and double dog daring Democrats to oppose a property tax relief plan (which they certainly would have) – Republicans instead decided put forward a wildly confusing scheme to overhaul how our public education system is structured.

Several components of this scheme, however, are not confusing at all, and none of them will be popular at all with voters. For example, taking away Vermonters’ right to vote on school budgets, eliminating locally elected school boards, dumping communities into new mega-districts, and disallowing half of the currently eligible independent schools from participating in the tuitioning program. And what do Vermonters get in return for all this sacrifice?

Perhaps the worst part of all this…. I’ll quote a recent op-ed by Rep. Anne Donahue (I-Northfield), “It does not save money [emphasis in original]. It spends more for transition needs, and could theoretically save money in the future. It could just as theoretically spend more.” In other words, those of Senator Baruth to be exact, the law Republicans championed is going to “cost more than a dollar, and it will disrupt a little bit to a lot.” In this case a whole lot. But this time, it’s Republicans who own it, and Democrats, or at least most of them, can say to their constituents, “We didn’t vote for that, they did.”

In the Senate the roll call vote to pass H.454 was 17-12 with ten of thirteen Republicans voting for it (one was absent), and just seven of seventeen Democrats voting in favor. Earlier in the session Senator Baruth withdrew H.454 from floor debate and a vote because, according to him, he promised his caucus he would not bring a bill to the floor that a majority of his party did not want to pass. Then he either broke that promise – or he didn’t. I suspect he didn’t, and his caucus wanted the bill to pass with Republicans taking the initial credit as well as the long-term blame. (The House didn’t do a roll call.)

Similar to the Clean Heat Standard that proved to be a millstone around the necks of Democrats in 2024, H.454 has a “check back-ish” component as well. If a committee established in the law tasked with drawing new consolidated school district maps fails to come up with something the legislature can vote yes on in 2026 the whole scheme goes down in flames. And I’m taking bets it will go down in flames when all the Democrats vote no.

Why do I think Democrats will vote no? Because their allies in the Blob (the teachers unions, superintendents, principals, school boards) want the status quo. By killing the H.454 Democrats will appeal to voters who don’t like specific provisions of the restructuring plan (I’m going to guess roughly all of them), pay off their allies in the Blob by keeping the Act 60-plus money train flowing, blame the Governor and Republicans for failing to deliver property tax relief because the H.454 plan they insisted upon stank, and pin Republicans in the awkward position of either voting yes for an extremely unpopular set of policies, or throwing the most popular governor in the country under the bus by killing a concept he firmly put his stamp on. In, did I mention this, an election year.

So, in my humble opinion, Republicans put the unpopular cart (restructuring public education) before the popular horse (property tax relief) — and then shot the horse. Not good. They didn’t have to do this. They had other, better options both politically and policy-wise. But for reasons I can’t comprehend, like Lee at Gettysburg, Republican leaders ordered their troops to charge General Baruth’s entrenched, well-fortified position on ground of Baruth’s choosing. I wish them luck.

Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com