That is the question.

by Rob Roper

Hat tip to Compass Vermont for their recent article highlighting the state’s public input survey on the choices our legislature will have to make when they return to Montpelier in January, End of the Easy Money: Vermont Braces for Its Hardest Budget in 10 Years. The main point: Vermont is running out of money and tax capacity. Are lawmakers going to try to squeeze more blood out of us taxpaying turnips to keep the spending spigots gushing, or right size our programs away from our Democrat Socialist champagne tastes to fit our non-artisan beer bank accounts?

I think we all know what the majority party’s answer will be. To quote Progressive Representative Brian Cina’s call last year, “Madam Speaker: Read my lips, yes, new taxes…!” That’s their opinion.

But lawmakers want to hear from you! Well, kinda/sorta.

Vermont law requires public participation in developing goals and prioritizing spending and revenue, stating “The Governor shall develop a process for public participation in the development of budget goals, as well as general prioritization and evaluation of spending and revenue initiatives.” That’s what it says, but in practice it means burying a survey somewhere deep in a government website that nobody knows about and so nobody responds to.

I shouldn’t say nobody. Government workers, unions, NGOs and those who live off the taxpayers know about it. They’re organized, and they want your money. They are made aware of and take the survey which will then be used to justify their positions. And this is how all of these so-called requests for public input work. They are designed to amplify the voices of the tax eating class and bypass the working people who pay the taxes.

But here’s your chance to turn that dynamic on its head! Here’s the link to the tax and spend survey. Take two minutes and fill it out!

It offers twenty spending categories where you can choose to Reduce, Maintain, or Increase spending, and fifteen types of taxes where you can choose to Reduce, Maintain or Increase Revenue. It also gives the opportunity to make other suggestions or comments.

But here’s are the realities we’re facing. Vermont has a $9.19 billion budget, which is insane for a state of 640,000 people. In 2019, the year before Covid, the budget was $5.8 billion. That’s a 64 percent increase. Vermont’s cumulative rate of economic growth over that same period was 10.2 percent. Governor Scott is calling for a 3 percent cap on spending increases. That would mean a budget of just under $9.4 billion. Just… no.

A big chunk of that 64 percent increase was fueled by federal funds poured into the state to meet the pandemic emergency. Whether you agree or disagree that Covid was the emergency they said it was, now that emergency or “emergency” is over. The federal money to pay for the emergency programs and expansions is gone. And the programs that money funded are no longer necessary. The push to continue funding emergency provisions absent the emergency — with state-raised revenue we don’t have — makes no rational sense.

Since 2015 our spending on Pre-K to 12 public education has exploded from $1.4 billion to $2.4 billion, an over 70 percent increase. We spend on average $29,000 per student, the second highest spending rate in the country. Over that time period scores have been declining disgracefully. Mississippi just surged past us in student outcomes in math and literacy, and they spend somewhere around $11,000 per student. Money is not the issue here. We can spend less and do better by our kids.

We are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on Global Warming Solutions Act projects that have precisely zero impact on global warming. Much of that came from federal funding that is no longer available. The notion that we should backfill any of that with state tax revenue is ridiculous both practically and fiscally. Just no.

Economic development? The best thing we can do for economic development is to cut taxes while reducing and streamlining regulation to spur private sector investment. While there are places where investments make sense, such as increasing access to technical education training for students who want to enter the trades, generally speaking this shouldn’t be a spending issue. In fact, less (taxes and regulation) is more.

Healthcare? While rising healthcare and insurance costs are issues everywhere, Vermont’s situation is uniquely our own. We have the highest health insurance premiums in the country – by a lot! We have brought this on ourselves through years of policy choices designed to drive out competition, creating virtual insurer/provider monopolies in Blue Cross Blue Shield and UVM Medical Center. While this can’t be fixed overnight, the priority moving forward should not be pouring more and more tax dollars into propping up a broken, already unaffordable system. We need reform with an eye toward reducing cost and the need for taxpayer subsides.

Long story short, Vermont cannot – repeat cannot – continue to grow state spending year after year at rates that outpace economic growth. Which, by the way, has been between 1.4 percent over the past five years, and over the past two decades around 1.2 percent. So even Governor Scott’s “draconian” proposal of just a 3 percent increase would represent a spending increase of more than twice the rate of economic growth. Again. This is the very definition of “unaffordable.”

Vermont can’t afford – literally – to bake the spending increases over the last five years and more into the cake. The fiscally responsible choice is to put us on a glide path back to pre-Covid spending levels at the very least. That will force lawmakers to do some serious prioritizing, restructuring, and downsizing – something they will be loath to do without (prepare for understatement) considerable encouragement from taxpayers. Be an encourager!

Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com