If EVERYTHING goes right, it’s possible.

By Rob Roper

The Vermont Senate contains thirty seats. Democrats/Progressives currently hold twenty-three of them and the office of Lieutenant Governor, who presides over the state senate and can cast tie-breaking votes. So, for the Republicans to take control of the senate for the first time since the 1990s, they would have to hold the seven seats they have, win eight more, plus that LTG race. Can they do it? There is a path!

Republicans are in good shape to hold the seven seats they have. Three are running unopposed (Randy Brock and Bob Norris of Franklin County, and Russ Ingalls of Essex). Ritchie Westman of Lamoille County has a longshot challenger in Maureen Heck, but Heck, an independent, is actually more conservative than Westman, so “Republicans” would win in either scenario. The three Rutland County incumbents (Brian Collamore, David Weeks, and Terry Williams) are facing weak opposition. Nothing should be taken for granted, but let’s say that’s seven.

So, how do they get to fifteen plus one?

The five big targets. As other media have noted, a large group of Vermont businesspeople are donating to a handful of Republican senate candidates in hopes of returning some balance to the State House. They are primarily targeting five races with good reason: Republicans have a very good shot at winning these seats.

Caledonia County (8). Scott Beck, a long-time representative from St. Johnsbury, is the favorite to win this open seat vacated by the retiring Democrat Jane Kitchel. Beck is running an aggressive, well-funded campaign in a district that leans slightly Republican demographically. Strong Advantage: Beck.

Orange County (9). Here Republicans recruited a well-liked, well-known candidate in Larry Hart to run against long time (some might say too long time) incumbent Democrat Mark MacDonald. MacDonald is eighty years old, suffered a stroke two years ago, isn’t raising money or actively campaigning, and is, by many accounts of those who’ve observed him, nuts. He’s the guy who said about the Clean Heat Standard tax on heating fuel, if you can’t afford oil or propane as a result, “Get a blanket for Christ’s sake.” He also proclaimed in his committee that, “We don’t do things based on helping poor people. We do things based on saving the world.” Yeah, that ass—-. Advantage: Hart.

Chittenden Northeast 10). Republican Chris Mattos, a current Representative from Milton is taking on incumbent Democrat Senator Irene Wrenner. Wrenner, serving her first term, narrowly won her last race against a candidate who did not run an aggressive campaign and in a year where the Article 22 abortion amendment greatly benefited Democrats. This newly created single member district resulting from the breakup of the “Chittenden Six Pack” appears to lean Republican and was expected to be a Republican lock when drawn up. Wrenner is an aggressive campaigner, but this time she is facing an equally active and better funded opponent in Mattos, with the issues voters care most about largely on Mattos’ side. Advantage: Mattos.

Orleans County (11). Here Republican Sam Douglass is taking on Democrat Representative Katherine Sims for the open seat vacated by retiring Democrat Bobby Starr. Sims has raised a ton of money and is a grossly ambitious politician. She campaigns very hard, but her far-left voting record and transparent election year flip flops may be too much to overcome in what is one of the few genuinely-red districts in Vermont. It helps that Douglass is running a textbook, professional campaign. Slight Advantage: Douglass.

Grand Isle County (12). Republican Pat Brennan has served in the Vermont House for over twenty years and is now vying to step up to the senate seat vacated by the death of legendary Democrat Senator Dick Mazza. Brennan is running against Democrat Andy Julow, who was appointed to the seat in the final days of the 2024 legislative session – just in time to help override Governor Scott’s veto of the Property Tax Yield bill! Brennan has the advantages of name recognition, and in this case endorsements just might matter more than ususal as Brennan has the support of Dick Mazza’s son. Advantage: Brennan.

So, that would be twelve. If Republicans win just four of those five races, they would be able to sustain the Governor’s vetoes in the upcoming session. But here’s where things get interesting….

Bennington County (13). In Bennington County both seats in this two-seat district are open following the retirement of Democrat Brian Campion and the death of Democrat Dick Sears. That alone presents an opportunity for Republicans. But beyond that there’s some uniquely favorable math. Joe Gervais is the lone Republican running in the race, but he is partnering with a conservative Independent, Spike Whitmire. Both are running very hard retail politics campaigns. On the left-hand side of the ticket, however, there are FOUR candidates, two Democrats, Seth Bongartz and Rob Plunkett, and two former Democrat Representatives running as Independents, Cynthia Browning and Steve Berry. If the four “Democrats” somewhat evenly split the left vote, it opens a very wide path for Gervais, Whitmire or both.

Windsor County (14). Here we have one open seat in a three-seat district, left vacant by the retirement of Democrat Dick McCormack. Republicans have put forward three candidates, Jonathan Gleason, Andrea Murray, and Jack Williams, to take on two incumbent Democrats, Alison Clarkson and Becca White, and newcomer Joe Major. Though Windsor has been solidly blue for a long time, this county was hit especially hard by the property tax tsunami we all experienced this summer. Windsor County Republicans are energized and organized like never before contesting not just all three senate seats but recruiting a near-full slate of house candidates as well, many competing for open seats themselves as Democrat incumbents jumped ship. Gleason, Murray and Williams are all very different in how they appeal to voters, and it is conceivable that in an election where the pendulum starts to swing back to the right in Windsor County, one of them could grab that open seat. In a wave year, maybe knock off an arrogant, out of touch, unpopular incumbent (cough cough Becca White cough cough).

Addison County (15). Republican challengers Steve Heffernan and Landel Cochran are taking on incumbent Democrats Chris Bray and Ruth Hardy. This would appear to be a tough nut to crack with Republicans currently holding exactly zero house or senate seats in Addison County. But…. I recently drove through Addison, and there are Heffernan signs EVERYWHERE. And Cochran is catching up. Moreover, the Clean Heat Carbon Tax is shaping up to be a – if not the – defining issue of this campaign season, and Chris Bray is the very proud and unapologetic papa of this political millstone. Hardy’s biggest claim to fame is her championing the bill (S.39) that would have more than doubled her own and her colleagues’ salaries while ushering in unprecedented tax increases in a time of rampant inflation. That bill was, to put it mildly, unpopular. And the cherry on top of this race is the recent incident in which the Middlebury Select board “accidentally” included in their property tax mailing to all homeowners a note blaming Bray, Hardy, and the local house reps for the 16% increase. The select board apologized, but, yeah….

So, if Republicans can hold onto their current seven seats, win the “Big Five” top target races, and pick up three of the seven seats (three of which are open) in Addison, Bennington, and Windsor Counties, that’s a fifteen to fifteen partisan tie.

Then, to take full control of the Senate, Republicans would have to see John Rodgers win his race for Lieutenant Governor over “Creepy” Dave Zuckerman, giving them the tie-breaking vote. I think he has a good chance.

And/Or, Republicans could pick up more than three of those seven seats in Addison, Bennington and Windsor. Possible. And there’s always the chance they could catch lightning in a bottle with upsets in Chittenden County Southeast by the likes of Bruce Roy, or in crime-frustrated Windham County with Dale Gassett and Rick Morton.

While it’s true Democrats have had their way with Republicans for quite some time, that has largely been because Republicans have not recruited strong candidates, and those who did step forward have not been well funded or otherwise supported. That’s not the case this year. These are solid candidates with resources to wage professional campaigns. Governor Scott for the first time is putting money into a statewide media campaign in support of common sense, fiscally responsible candidates who will sustain his vetoes – a definition that effectively excludes every Democrat.  

And, for the first time in a long time, the issues of most concern to Vermonters – property taxes, rising crime, the general cost of living, and who’s going to vote NO on the Clean Heat carbon tax come January – all favor Republicans. The big question, for me anyway, is will folks turn out to vote? By God I hope so! Your ballot should be in your mailbox. Fill it out and send it in!

Rob Roper is a freelance writer who has been involved with Vermont politics and policy for over 20 years. This article reprinted with permission from Behind the Lines: Rob Roper on Vermont Politics, robertroper.substack.com