By Guy Page
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Amanda Janoo and Republican Gov. Phil Scott are in a statistical tie among likely Vermont voters, according to a new University of New Hampshire poll that shows a sharp partisan divide in the race.
The Green Mountain State Poll, released Sept. 24 by the UNH Survey Center, found 49% of likely voters supporting Janoo and 43% supporting Scott. Independent Brian Judd received 2%, while 6% were undecided. Because Janoo’s six-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, the Survey Center characterized the race as a statistical tie.
The poll represents a change from earlier in the campaign, when Scott, seeking a sixth term, held an advantage over potential Democratic challengers. UNH reported in June that Scott led prospective Democratic opponents, although his job approval had fallen to what was then a new low.
The September poll shows voters breaking along party lines. Among Republicans, 89% supported Scott, while 2% backed Janoo. Among Democrats, 73% supported Janoo and 20% Scott.
Scott maintained an advantage among independents, with 53% supporting the governor and 40% backing Janoo.
Janoo also registered stronger favorability numbers among likely voters. Forty-four percent viewed her favorably and 22% unfavorably, while 27% said they did not know enough about her to offer an opinion.
Scott was viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 36%, with 20% neutral.
The same poll examined Vermont’s other statewide races and several policy questions. UNH reported that Democrat Molly Gray led Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Democratic U.S. Rep. Becca Balint held a substantial advantage in her reelection contest. The poll also found support for both proposed constitutional amendments appearing on the November ballot.
On other state issues, a majority of respondents supported a tax on second homes, while a plurality supported Scott’s proposal to consolidate school districts with the possibility that some schools could close. Respondents were divided over overdose-prevention centers such as the planned facility in Burlington.
The Green Mountain State Poll is conducted by the UNH Survey Center using a probability-based web panel of Vermont residents recruited through random sampling.
Feature photo – Amanda Janoo at August primary celebration after winning Democratic nomination for governor.