By the Virginia Citizens Defense League 

Just days before the recent election, several news outlets were reporting that the usual fears that have become common as a presidential election approaches never materialized in a way that caused gun and ammunition sales to surge.

In fact, October 2024 actually saw a slight decline in FBI background checks on gun-related transactions with numbers dropping by five percent from the same period last year.

This trend reverses an upward movement seen earlier in the year and marks a departure from historical election-year patterns, according to The Reload’s Stephen Gutowski. Typically, election years trigger a spike in gun purchases due to concerns over potential restrictions, but that’s not the case this time.

As shown on the graph below, FBI firearms background checks nationwide were down in October (2.4 million) compared to October 2020 (3.3 million). (Editor’s note: VDC’s attempt to access state-based records were blocked – whether by our browser or by the source, IDK.)

While the total number of sales-related checks through the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) still exceeded a million in October—making it the 63rd consecutive month to hit that threshold—the volume remains notably lower than expected for a high-stakes election year. 

“We haven’t seen what we typically see in an election year,” said Mark Oliva, spokesperson for the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), in an interview with HuffPost. Oliva attributed this deviation to a “steady state” in background checks rather than a spike, and he highlighted that Americans continue to demonstrate their commitment to Second Amendment rights, even if they aren’t flooding gun stores.

Analysts suggest that shifts in political realities may explain the trend. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris tried to soften her stance on gun legislation by presenting herself as a gun owner, and her running mate, Tim Walz, as an avid hunter, neither of whom were interested in “taking peoples guns away.” While it was generally accepted this was mere political posturing to win over concerns of new and middle-of-the-road gun owners, anticipation of a Republican takeover of the Senate as well as the likelihood the GOP would maintain its hold on the House of Representatives, meant fears of any meaningful legislation that would limit gun ownership never came into play.

Firearms sales, while still steady and strong, have softened since they hit critical mass following fears of increased social upheaval in 2020. It was then that the combined events of the pandemic, the riots following the death of George Floyd, calls to defund police departments and progressive leaders allowing lawlessness to go unpunished in a number of big cities that many Americans recognized the need to own a firearm for protection of themselves and their families.

The NSSF pointed to the NICS data, which they adjust by removing background checks tied to concealed carry permits, as a close indicator of sales. However, the numbers reflect broader dynamics, including the lingering effects of the pandemic gun boom, which, as already noted, brought new demographics into the firearm community. 

“Law-abiding Americans – by the tens of millions – are quite literally voting with their wallets and investing in their rights,” Oliva told The Reload in a statement, indicating that while the rush may have slowed, enthusiasm for gun ownership remains strong across the nation.

Gun sales and ammunition sales skyrocketed following the first election of Barack Obama in 2008 out of fears he would push for harsher gun control measures. Those fears went largely unrealized as Obama focused on other issues such as healthcare, but it served to provide a profitable bump and backlog in production for many firearms-related businesses. And while there has been marked increase in gun sales leading up to this election, with Trump winning his second presidential term, the Republican Party gaining control of the Senate and looking like they will hold on to the House as of the time of this writing, it is unlikely fear will factor into any post-election sales surge as well.

On the flip side, in the days immediately following the election, the stock market and bitcoin surged and some retailers reported an uptick in activity as Trump’s victory prompted an immediate wave of economic optimism. Should a stronger economy materialize under the incoming administration that would definitely be welcome news for firearms, ammunition and gear manufacturers, retailers and consumers alike.