by Paul Dame 

In 2024, the fact that nearly 30% of school budgets failed sent shockwaves through Vermont’s political landscape. It was one of the clearest tax revolts the state had seen in a generation. Even wealthier towns with traditions of supporting school spending, like South Burlington, endured multiple setbacks when their school budgets failed not once—but twice. Later that fall, when property tax bills arrived, incumbent Democrats had little room to distance themselves from the tax increases produced by three decades of policy decisions and accelerated by a supermajority.

When the dust settled on Town Meeting Day in 2026, about 17% of school budgets had failed. At first glance, that might look like a reversal after the nearly 30% failure rate in 2024. Some commentators have suggested voters are cooling in their opposition to rising school taxes and that things are returning to normal.  But that interpretation leaves out important context.

In 2024, many school budgets proposed extremely large spending increases. In South Burlington, for example, the first proposal called for a 23% increase in spending. A revised budget with a 14% increase was also rejected. At the time, it seemed almost unthinkable that voters would reject so many budgets. Yet many of those proposals were far out of step with what taxpayers were willing to pay for.

Voters reinforced that message later that year in statewide elections, when a significant number of incumbent Democratic legislators lost their seats and the party’s supermajority disappeared to give way to a measure of needed balance.

The political and fiscal environment in 2026 looked different largely because voters forced it to change. One notable shift was that several school districts proposed budgets that actually reduced per-pupil spending. Nearly 20 districts responded to voter concerns about rising property taxes by cutting per pupil spending outright. Few school budgets were offering that in 2024.

Not surprisingly, every budget that reduced per-pupil spending passed. Many of those districts are represented by Republicans in areas such as Franklin, Orleans, and Essex counties. That result suggests voters are not simply rejecting school budgets across the board. Instead, they appear willing to support budgets that demonstrate fiscal constraint.

The results from districts proposing large increases tell a different story. Among school budgets with recorded votes that increased per-pupil spending by 9% or more, roughly 44% failed. That failure rate is even higher than the statewide rejection rate that drew attention in 2024. Even when looking at districts where per-pupil spending increased by 5.5% or more, about 40% of budgets failed.

Those numbers indicate that voter frustration with rapidly rising school spending has not disappeared. But it has become more focused on rewarding prudent school spending, and punishing larger increases. Vermont voters are well read and among the smartest in the nation – they know that a 10% reduction in per pupil spending and a 20% increase should not be treated equally.

All of this is happening while Gov. Phil Scott has proposed buying down property tax rates by cutting other areas of state spending and directing those savings to the Education Fund. With Republicans now holding enough seats to sustain a veto, the governor has more leverage to pursue that proposal than he did when facing a larger Democratic supermajority in 2024.

Without that temporary tax relief, even modest spending increases could have translated into significantly larger property tax hikes.

Democrats in the Montpelier Majority now face a decision about how to interpret the Town Meeting Day results. Misreading the Town Meeting Day results could tempt them to take the millions of dollars the governor trimmed from the budget for property tax relief and redirect it toward their spending priorities instead. If they take that approach, they will either have to raise property taxes, or raise other taxes. There are already several bills to get revenue from income taxes, sales tax or rooms & meals.

 Vermont Republicans are clear that the path forward is to bring education spending—and the tax rates that follow—back down to reasonable levels. If the governor’s plan succeeds, the statewide average increase might fall to around 5% or 6% for this year. Even that is too high – but it’s the best we can do when Democrats control both chambers.  Transformational reform requires a new funding formula so responsible towns are actually rewarded for their fiscal discipline. Schools that refuse to control costs will have to bear the weight of that themselves.

 Vermont Republicans are committed to moving toward the allowable growth formula in Act 73 that more closely aligns a community’s spending with the with taxes. If that change doesn’t happen, future legislatures may run out of tricks to keep taxes down, and voters may need to send another message to the Democratic Majority in Montpelier.

The author is the chair of the Vermont Republican Party