(Editor’s note: the original version of this commentary/analysis was written last week, before Saturday’s attack on Iranian nuclear attack by U.S. forces. We’re publishing it anyway because it provides valuable ‘back story’ to the fast-developing conflict between Iran and Israel and now, at least to some degree, the United States.)

by Peter Fernandez

According to ABC News, on Friday the 13th, as part of Operation Rising Lion, Israeli forces struck at the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and dozens of military sites. CBS, BBC, and MSN News also confirmed that the IDF strategy was not to hit civilian areas as much as possible. Historically, this is by far Israel’s most significant attack against the Persian theocracy that continually promises to wipe out the “Zionist Entity.”  It is believed that the IDF used 200 aircraft in the first wave against 100 Iranian military targets, including the nuclear facilities located in Natanz, which is Iran’s main uranium enrichment complex. The nuclear facilities located in Isfahan, Tehran and Fordow also suffered damaging air strikes.

Almost immediately, the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones against targeted civilian sites, especially Tel Aviv, a city of 4,569,000 people. 93% of whom are Jews. Jerusalem, with a population of 997,000, was not targeted, most likely due to its huge Moslem population, (380,000) which makes up 38.1% of Israel’s largest city’s population. its two sacred mosques, the Al Aqsa (the Farthest), the third-holiest mosque or “masjid” after Mecca’s and Medina’s holy shrines, and the famed gold-crowned mosque, the Dome of the Rock also may have held off Iranian missiles. Jerusalem is considered holy by the three major monotheistic religions, Judaism, Christianity, and Islam.

According to Fox News contributor, retired General Jack Keane, Israel’s intelligence inside Iran and elsewhere “is exquisite,” and this led to the surgical strikes that claimed the lives of Iran’s four leading generals. The commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, was involved with Iran’s ballistic missile program. Relating to his nuclear activities, he was sanctioned by the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada.

The second assassinated general, Major General Mohammed Baqeri, was considered in charge of covert, military, and internal planning. His and Salami’s connections with Hamas and Hezbollah helped pave the way financially for October 7th.

The third, Major General Ali Rashid, was in charge of the central headquarters of Khatam-ol-Anbia, an elite operational military unit. This command center is responsible for operational command and control and has been separated from the general staff.

The fourth Iranian military officer killed by the IDF was the commander of the Aerospace Force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizzadeh. He was a key player in Iran’s drone and missile projects and figured mightily in the most recent attacks and operations against Israel.

Two leading Iranian nuclear scientists were also killed, as well as additional members of the regular army, Artesh, or the Islamic Republic Iranian Army.

In a Times of India article, an Israeli security officer outlined how the IDF hoodwinked Iran’s three top air force commanders into assembling for a conference. They were Generals Mohammad Bagheri and Hossein Salami, and the third, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who was in charge of the IRGC’s ballistic missile program. “We carried out specific activities to help us learn more about them, and then we used that information to influence their behavior.

“We knew his would lead them to meet- but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there,” added the official. 

Israel doesn’t boast of its legendary secret service, Mossad, which simply means “institute”.  Many of its members are highly trained Farsi-speaking operatives embedded in Iran, holding various positions and jobs. There are also Iranians willing to work with the Israelis for profit or political motives, including freeing themselves of the strict rule of the mullahs, who enforce dress codes, primarily upon women who are considered second-class citizens. 

Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter explained that Iran “fired into civilian population centers, when we strike, we strike military commanders and terrorist command centers.” He went on to explain that Iran was a “death cult that is dedicated to the destruction of Israel and says it every day.”

Leiter also noted last Friday that Iran lies and doesn’t negotiate in good faith. “The President sent a letter 60 days ago to the supreme leader and now its day 61. The International Energy Agency sent a damning report to other governments, Leiter added, acknowledging that Iran will be capable of building atomic bombs in weeks.

“We can’t take that risk,” added Lieter. “We’ve been there 80 years ago when we didn’t have an army. Now we have an army.” In a brief sidebar interview with Mike Pompeo, Fox News Bret Baier asked the former Secretary of State what keeps him up at night. Pompeo, who now works at Columbia University as a Distinguished Fellow in Global Politics, said that terror cells inside the US could now awaken after the Biden administration left the borders open for four years. Leiter astutely mentioned that Pompeo was targeted by Iran for assassination not long ago.

Iran responds that it will target US bases in the region if Washington, DC, provides further military assistance to Israel.

If Iran doesn’t, one of its proxies, the Houthis of Yemen, also known as Ansar Allah, or “The Helpers of God” will and has. With Hamas decimated, yet still battling Israel in Gaza, and Hezbollah reeling from last spring’s IDF offenses, Ansar Allah has surfaced as an engaged participant with missile and drone attacks against Israel, even after making “a deal” with the Trump Administration to halt its attacks on US warships and commercial vessels.

Hours after the inception of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, the IDF launched initial strikes on the oil and gas infrastructure of Iran. Multiple sites were attacked, encompassing the Shahran fuel and gas depot and the Shahr Rey oil refinery in southern Tehran. 

According to  the June 14 Washington Free Beacon article by Adsam Kredo cited heavy damage inflicted by Israelis on Iran’s oil refineries, from which “Tehran uses to generate over $50 billion a year-hundreds of millions of which it uses to fund terror groups.”

Following Saturday night’s Operation Midnight Hammer, the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, there are concerns that a regional war could break out if Iran responds by targeting American allies and assets, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows.

Iran could initiate its regional proxies, including the Houthis of Yemen, Hezbollah, and other terrorist organizations in Syria and Iraq.

It’s possible that the US could be drawn into a prolonged engagement after President Trump stated that the initial strikes were a “spectacular military success.” Military and economic spending, spiking oil prices, and inflation could disrupt the Gulf region. The United States could also trigger the alienation of some of our allies, complications with countries like India, which depends on Gulf oil and trade passages.

The author is a Northfield resident.