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By Michael Bielawski
The Green Mountain State is taking in more folks than are leaving, and the rate is accelerating. Another trend is incoming populations are largely from blue states and most outgoing folks are heading to mostly red states.
Vermont State Treasurer Mike Pieciak’s report states, “Net inbound migration increased in 2023 (+7,592) compared to 2022 (+2,981), and in consistent with a general upswing in net in-bound migration since the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Vermont had the third highest population increase via migration in the nation. Only South Carolina and North Dakota experienced greater population increases due to migration.
More deaths than births
Vermont as an elderly population is experiencing a higher rate of deaths compared to births, and the trend is accelerating year over year. The latest data is Vermont is experiencing 1,501 more deaths than births. It was back in 2014 when the state last experienced more births than deaths, with 504 more births.
Blue staters incoming
The report notes that most migration comes from nearby areas in the Northeast, mostly politically ‘blue’ states.
“Most people who moved to Vermont came from other the Northeast. Specifically, the top five states that individuals moved to Vermont from were: Massachusetts (+3,965); New York (+3,279); New Hampshire (+2,781); Connecticut (+1,655) and Pennsylvania (+1,529),” the report states.
In terms of net migration, the states that are sending more folks to Vermont compared to taking out of Vermont, the list changes some. The five states with the highest net migration into Vermont are Massachusetts at +3,965, New York at +3,279, New Hampshire at +2,781, Pennsylvania at +1,035, and Connecticut at +891.
Although New York has a reputation as a ‘blue state’ the latest data indicates that The Empire State is considered more of a ‘purple state’ in 2024.
Leaving for red states
Conversely, those leaving Vermont are largely leaving toward politically ‘red’ states. The report states, “The most popular states for those leaving Vermont were: New York (-3,926); New Hampshire (-1,890); Florida (-1,739); Massachusetts (-1,430); and Illinois (-1,057).”
In terms of net migration, the states seeing more come from Vermont than they are sending are Illinois at -1,057, Utah at -897, Tennessee at -667, New York at -647, and North Carolina at -516.
Health services maxed out?
Over the years Gov. Phil Scott has sounded the alarm that Vermont’s aging demographics are trending in the wrong direction. Speaking to the media he sounded the alarm in November that the state’s healthcare systems are getting overwhelmed.
“These are tough decisions, there’s no doubt about it, but it all goes back again to our demographics,” Scott said in November. “… “These decisions are not going to be palatable for some.”
The Vermont Department of Health has also sounded the alarm.
“Vermont’s older population is our fastest growing age group. By 2030, one in three of us will be over the age of 60,” their report titled “Age Strong Vermont” states.
The initiative seeks to make Vermont a more accessible state for the elderly. It identifies “a wide range of changing needs — such as housing, healthcare, transportation, caregiving, access to healthy food, education and employment.”
The author is a writer for the Vermont Daily Chronicle
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Categories: News Analysis
More free federal benefits from the taxpayer in Vermont. Need to keep the old people here to milk their federal social security benefits and that includes retired military. Federal funding, grants, and debt instrument bonding will last forever in the minds of the people running this clown show.
Just what we need, more liberal flatlanders !
Still can’t “get” the entire Communist agenda, huh? Just what VT needs, uneducated and unenlightened and thick “born n’ raised in this day & age too! And because of that, the Vt. GOP & the entire state shall continue to fail.
Gosh…I’m so threatened by other Americans from New Hampshire and Connecticut……if only Vt. could secede, it would be eminently glorious here!
Please do feel free to censor, after all, only conservative women who dare to dissent on specific subject matter on VDC are erased. Even permanently! At least VT Digger erased all commenters, not just those they didn’t care for.
at first glance it seems surprising so many from NH are moving to Vermont but then one needs to look at reasons.
The report by Pieciak is ‘cherry-picked’ and misleading. Check out Art Woolf’s more comprehensive 12-11-24 synopsis of the census data. The net result of 891 people from NH moving to VT is a 2022 statistic nested in a 2023 report and is barely a statistical blip. It doesn’t account for income. And 2023, like the pandemic years of 2020, 2021, and 2022, is not indicative of longer-term analysis.
For years, lower income folks have been moving to VT because of the State’s progressive social welfare policies. In fact, beginning back in the late 70s, welfare departments in neighboring States were recommending certain towns in VT for social welfare recipients.
According to Woolf:
Vermont’s population growth is very low, which has contributed to a stagnant labor force, making it difficult for current and potential employers to find workers. There are more births than deaths and international immigration is low. From 2000 to 2023 more people have left Vermont than moved into the state.
• People leaving the state historically have had higher incomes than the people moving to the state, although that has changed in the last few years, possibly due to the influence of Covid-induced migration. But the difference has been, and is, relatively small.
• Among high income Vermonters (those earning over $200,000) there are slightly more people moving in than moving out, but the numbers are very small.
• Any conclusions based on a snapshot of one year’s worth of data should be made with caution. Looking at multi-year trends gives a better indication of underlying patterns and trends.
For example, the statement that “….Vermont’s older population is our fastest growing age group” from Age Strong Vermont is misleading at best. According to Woolf:
“Among the movers earning over $200,000 the year after they moved, more people under 65 moved in than out, but for those over 65, the leavers outnumbered those moving in.”
Why does Pieciak and Age Strong Vermont cherry-pick the data? Because they suspect no one is paying attention.
And, for the most part, they’re right.
https://www.campaignforvermont.org/wealth_migration?
Vermont is like a hot mess marxist supermodel. Really beautiful, charming in ways, but very difficult and expensive to live with. This is the root problem.
No young family would be compelled to move to Vermont, we have no serious job market, our housing prices are one of the highest, we do have a serious drug, crime and alcohol problem, our schools suck due to organizational mismanagement and our taxes are some of the highest in the nation. We created this mess. Thankfully it’s also easily corrected.
Not unexpected and not a shocker. These Blue state migrants yearn for the rural / hippie feel of Vermont with an eager acceptance of their virtue signaling. However, this is just adding more fuel to the dumpster fire that continues to spread across Vermont (property tax increase, school tax increase, lack of housing, theft, assaults, murders, etc.). So, expect more “Hate has No Home” lawn signs and the continued less than ideal conditions in Vermont.
Welcome inbound Blue Believers to our land of the overtaxed, ill-educated and politically correct!
Why is anyone surprised by this? No accountability on any level, drugs/assaults’/free day care, free lunches, etc. Now our Mayor needs her own personal assistant? How much is that going to cost taxpayers, how about all these new positions that start at 90K a year. Get rid of the Massive Welfare Fraud. Does anyone have any idea how many women are lying on their applications for food stamps, electricity, MEDICAID etc and their b/f’s/family members are living with them, but not adding their massive incomes. And the more kids they can have the more taxpayer $ they get. Bet you could easily save a billion a year if you fixed this one thing. Seniors don’t even get this kind of help or the disabled. VT is one messed up state and it all starts with those in office who keep the taxpayers down and allow others to live off their backs. Start with Springfield and do an audit on Medicaid and food stamps, and go back 2-3 years you’d be stunned at what you discover. Make sure you ‘force’ them to show their leases from SHA and other landlords. Do the audit and force them to pay the $ back with % in addition make so they can NEVER get assistance again. Those in power won’t ever do that. That is probably why people are moving here, ‘if it’s free, it’s for me!’ those leaving for red states are tired of supporting the e-lites and welfare frauds.
certainly the trend in Vermont for years. liberals come to Vermont to carry on and expand their philosophies while getting away from disastrous results of those policies where they came from
“The latest data is Vermont is experiencing 1,501 more deaths than births.”
Tragically, with the nearly 25% abortion percentage (the percentage of pregnancies that end in abortion) in Vermont, the difference between the number of deaths and the number of births is almost exactly the number of babies being aborted here every year. Realistically, it’s probably even higher with the prevalence and anonymity of the chemical abortion pill, especially as women are being persuaded to lie to ER staff by reporting any complications they experience from the abortion pill as just being from a miscarriage.
And what do we have to show for it? The Queen City demise. Montpelier not much better. It all turns to…………..
How many illegals? Are they included in these #s?
I’ve looked. There are some stats for illegal farm workers. They vary but are in the low thousands.
How can any assessment of illegal/undocumented workers be trusted. Consider the descriptor – ‘undocumented’. That means there’s no documentation of their status.
I know, anecdotally, that there are many ‘documented’ immigrant workers in Vermont with H2-A visas. Two of them, from Brazil, have lived at my house for the last three summers. And they work with a couple of dozen other ‘documented’ immigrant workers from Jamaica and Argentina. I have never heard any of them speak of undocumented workers employed with them. Does that mean there are no undocumented people in Vermont. No. Of course not. But with the advent of ‘sanctuary’ governments, how can we know the real numbers? Our government is complicit in the illegality, and unwilling to provide, or incapable of providing, accurate numbers.
I’m curious, most of the data presented are estimates with a confidence interval of 90%. Why didn’t report include the possible ranges of incoming and outgoing people?
Average people, report and use averages in their reporting and decision-making. Subsequently, the outcomes of their decisions is a coin flip.
Data-driven leaders understand the significance of vacation and margin of errors and including that in their reporting and decision making.
This report reeks of third string players.
“The most popular (red) states for those leaving Vermont were: New York (-3,926); New Hampshire (-1,890); Florida (-1,739); Massachusetts (-1,430); and Illinois (-1,057).”
Wait, WHAT?!? Last I checked, NY, MA, and IL are democrat hellholes. Only Florida is a “red” state.
What am I missing?
Higher wages? Lower healthcare insurance?