by Dave Soulia on FYIVT.com
In 2018, Vermont enacted Act 164 (H.728), a bail reform law championed by criminal justice activists, including the ACLU of Vermont. At the time, the promise was simple: fewer people sitting in jail simply because they couldn’t afford bail, a more equitable legal system, and no increase in crime.
Now, six years later, the data tells a very different story. Vermont has seen a surge in crime, especially in property-related offenses and repeat offenders, while law enforcement struggles under the weight of a broken system. Meanwhile, the ACLU and other reform advocates remain silent, dismissing the concerns of law-abiding citizens who are forced to deal with the consequences of these misguided policies.
Even worse? State lawmakers are doubling down on these failures—relying on manipulated data to push even more radical policies, including a major expansion of Vermont’s juvenile justice system to cover most offenders up to age 20 and broadening harm reduction initiatives by reducing penalties for drug offenses—laying the groundwork for future policies such as Safe Injection Sites under Act 125 (S.58, 2024).
Crime Rates After Bail Reform: The Data Doesn’t Lie
When the ACLU and others pushed for bail reform, they assured the public that it wouldn’t lead to an increase in crime. But Vermont’s crime statistics tell a different story.
- Motor vehicle theft skyrocketed by 70.5% in 2021 and climbed another 30% in 2022.
- Aggravated assaults, burglaries, and repeat offenses surged, following the pattern seen in other states with similar policies.
- Law enforcement’s ability to solve crimes plummeted, leaving victims without justice.
These numbers aren’t random fluctuations—they coincide directly with the implementation of bail reform policies that made it easier for repeat offenders to get back on the streets within hours of an arrest.
What Are Clearance Rates (And Why They Matter)?
Crime rates only tell part of the story. To understand Vermont’s crisis, we also need to examine clearance rates—the percentage of reported crimes that police successfully “clear” by making an arrest or identifying a suspect.
- Definition: A clearance rate measures how effectively police solve crimes.
- A high clearance rate means criminals are held accountable and face prosecution.
- A low clearance rate means crimes go unpunished, emboldening repeat offenders.
So how does Vermont measure up? Abysmally.
- Clearance rates for property crimes in Vermont are often under 10%.
- Motor vehicle theft and larceny-theft cases rarely get solved, meaning offenders walk free.
- This is one of the worst clearance rates in the country—and it’s getting worse under Smart Justice policies.
Clearance rates do not include crimes that were never reported to law enforcement.
Follow the Money: Who’s Funding Vermont’s Criminal Justice Reforms?
Vermont’s crime and bail reform policies haven’t evolved organically. They’ve been driven by outside organizations, lobbyists, and federally funded think tanks that have spent millions of dollars influencing state policy.
- The Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center received a $3.94 million federal grant (2019-ZB-BX-K002) from the Bureau of Justice Assistance to drive its criminal justice reinvestment strategies nationwide.
- The ACLU of Vermont, backed by national donors, has been at the forefront of Smart Justice efforts, advocating for the elimination of cash bail, reduced sentences, and expanded “harm reduction” strategies.
- Harvard-affiliated criminal justice research, widely cited by reform advocates, has selectively framed data to claim that bail reform does not increase crime—despite evidence to the contrary in states like New York, Illinois, and Vermont.
All of these groups have a financial and ideological interest in keeping bail reform, “harm reduction,” and safe injection sites moving forward—even when the data proves these policies are making things worse.
Manipulated Reports: The 2023 Vermont Criminal Justice Data Snapshot
The 2023 Vermont Criminal Justice Data Snapshot, which reformers have used to justify further decarceration and safe injection sites, is deeply flawed.
- Instead of showing crime spikes, it smooths out long-term trends to hide the damage done post-2018.
- It omits property crime clearance rates, which are abysmally low—often below 10%.
- It was prepared by organizations that received direct federal funding for justice reform, making it a self-serving document rather than an independent report.
This report isn’t just bad data—it’s a tool to push an agenda. And that agenda includes safe injection sites and further decriminalization, all under the guise of “harm reduction.”
S.58/Act 125: Doubling Down on Failure
Instead of recognizing that Smart Justice policies have backfired, Vermont lawmakers passed S.58 (now Act 125, 2024)—a law that expands these policies even further.
- Juvenile Crime Softened: More leniency for youth offenders up to age 21.
- Drug Laws Weakened: Laying the foundation for Act 178 (H.72, 2024) Safe Injection Sites.
- Pretrial Restrictions Loosened: Making it even easier for repeat offenders to walk.
Lawmakers leaned on the misleading 2023 Vermont Criminal Justice Data Snapshot to justify this bill—ignoring Vermont’s actual crime trends.
Victims Forgotten: The True Cost of These Policies
The ACLU’s Smart Justice campaign uses phrases like:
“Everyone deserves to be treated with dignity, no matter who they are or where they live.”
But where is the dignity for:
- The single mother who wakes up to find her car stolen?
- The small business owner dealing with repeat burglaries?
- The elderly couple whose home was ransacked, knowing the perpetrator will likely walk free?
Meanwhile, repeat offenders face no real consequences under Vermont’s post-2018 bail reform structure. Law enforcement arrests the same individuals over and over again, only for them to be released within hours.
Conclusion: A System Built for Criminals, Not Victims
Vermont’s bail reform policies were sold as a way to make the justice system fairer—but instead, they’ve weakened law enforcement, emboldened repeat offenders, and eroded public trust in the system.
But here’s the bigger problem—lawmakers aren’t just refusing to admit this failure. They’re actively doubling down on it.
In Part 2, we’ll expose exactly how manipulated crime reports are being used across the country, why New York, Illinois, and New Hampshire are experiencing the same crisis, and why this isn’t just a Vermont problem—it’s a national movement designed to weaken public safety.
