By Michael Bielawski
Four in ten Vermonters say they are struggling currently to face basic needs for their day-to-day expenditures according to a new poll released by the University of New Hampshire.
Also, nearly half of Vermonters expect a recession, and about one in ten believe the Green Mountain State is already in a recession.
“Vermonters are much more likely to be pessimistic than optimistic about their personal finances,” the full report of the Green Mountain State Poll states. It also notes that 841 Vermonters were surveyed, the margin of error is about 3.1%.
Twice as many Vermonters say they are doing worse
38% of Vermonters say they are doing worse off financially today than a year ago, which compares to just 17% saying they are doing better. About 45% say their finances are relatively unchanged.
Low-income earners more pessimistic
The numbers get more pessimistic among low-income families. For those making $75,000 a year or less, the percentage increases to 43% for those saying they are doing worse off than a year ago. That number drops to 28% for those between $75,000 and $150,000 in annual income.
A partisan divide
There is also a sharp partisan divide with Democrats generally having more optimism both for the current and future economy. It states, “Democrats are considerably more likely than Republicans to report doing better financially and to expect good times for the economy, while Republicans are much more likely to report hardship buying necessities and to anticipate a recession in the near future.”
Some data illustrating that divide include 70% of Republicans and 49% of independents saying they are doing worse off than a year ago versus only 20% of Democrats saying they feel that way.
The partisan divide continues when other questions are asked. For example, many more Republicans than Democrats anticipate an economic recession in the future.
Nearly half of Vermonters expect a recession
Among all Vermonters, 47% believe that an economic recession is in the future. Breaking that down further, 12% believe it is very likely and 35% believe it is somewhat likely that a recession is coming. Also not included in that number is 9% believe that Vermont is already in a recession.
Again the partisan divide comes into play as 91% of Republicans, about two-thirds of independents, and about 30% of Democrats expect a recession.
Taxes/cost of living got people down
The study indicates that taxes are a big culprit for Vermonters’ largely negative economic outlook. The study states, “Among those who expect to be worse financially a year from now, 26% say that they feel that way because of taxes, 20% cite the cost of living, 19% mention inflation, and 8% expect higher personal expenses.”
Businesses not optimistic either
On the business front, the outlook is similarly mixed or pessimistic. The study states, “When asked how they expect Vermont businesses to do in the upcoming year, 22% of Vermonters think state businesses will enjoy good times financially, 23% think they will experience bad times, and 54% anticipate mixed conditions.
A change this election season?
During the fall of last year, VDC first reported that the state legislature as a whole was polling in the negative with a 51% disapproval rating. It is unclear how these numbers will translate come election time as more citizens have been questioning the status of Vermont’s election integrity.
The author is a writer for the Vermont Daily Chronicle