by Kevin Ellis
The 2024 election has completely changed with a single letter. It happened so swiftly and so absolutely that no one can be blamed for being a bit confused.
Where are we? What is the state of the race? What the heck is going on? These are all questions I’ve heard again and again. Well, let me do my best to answer them.
Here, as of Wednesday, July 24th, is where the race stands.
Since the disastrous presidential debate, American voters could only seem to focus on Joe Biden’s ascending age and declining abilities. For this reason, the president could not focus his campaign on Trump’s copious negatives—something he desperately needed to do. Now Biden is out, and his distraction has been removed.
Vice President Kamala Harris has checked into the game, and the race has changed.
Suddenly, the Democrats have a candidate whose resume, background, and skills perfectly fit running a campaign against Donald Trump.
Suddenly, Trump is the old white man, angry at the new Americans on his lawn.
Suddenly, his pick of JD Vance for vice president looks rushed and silly.
Suddenly, the Democrats have a prosecutor and former California attorney general to bring the case to voters against a sexual predator, convicted felon, and a guy who tried to illegally overthrow the government.
Suddenly, a sitting vice president and a woman can talk about reproductive rights and women’s health in ways that the Irish Catholic Biden never could.
Suddenly, the bank accounts of formerly scared but now hopeful Democrats are open, sending $100 million from a million people in one day—the largest haul in American history.
Suddenly, every cell phone of every American afraid of Trump’s threat to democracy is lighting up. People are asking, “Where were you when Biden dropped out?” and “Where do I sign up?’’
Suddenly, people are whispering that Trump should actually get out of the race and make a deal to avoid further criminal prosecution.
Suddenly, the macho white man Republican convention with Hulk Hogan and the Elon Musk crowd looks aged and silly.
And that’s just on the surface. By digging deeper into the political world, you will see that the race has shifted even further.
The Polls
The latest polls have the race at a dead heat. And that was before an avalanche of online and TV advertising introduced Harris to the country.
The Messaging
Harris will tell us she is a former prosecutor who went after sexual predators, scam artists, and financial cheats. (Get it?)
Trump will portray Harris as a left-wing incompetent from the failed city of San Francisco who will allow illegal immigrants to take our jobs.
Then, because he’s Trump, he will turn to outright racism and misogyny.
Harris is an angry black woman.
Harris is friends with Black Panthers.
Harris is a foreigner. (He said the same about Obama)
Harris slept her way to the top.
Get ready for ALL that filth from Trump.
Why?
Because his senior advisor is a guy named Chris LaCivita.
Back in 2004, when John Kerry ran for president against George W. Bush, LaCivita ran a smear campaign attacking Kerry’s service and questioning his patriotism in the Vietnam War. None of it was true—Kerry was a decorated veteran—but the attacks stuck. Kerry did not respond, and he lost.
Similar attacks will certainly be run against Harris. Mark my words, they will be the dirtiest, ugliest attacks in history. It will make the Willie Horton ads by George HW Bush against Michael Dukakis look like a tea party.
The question for Harris is how tough she can be in making her case and absorbing the body blows coming her way. She passed one test already, keeping Jen O’Malley Dillon as campaign chair and bringing on former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe as an advisor.
Those two are battle-tested and will not allow the Trump campaign to paint Harris as someone she is not and will aggressively paint Trump as what he actually is. They have a lot to work with.
To understand the Harris message, check out the first ad from the anti-Trump group, the Lincoln Project.
Harris’ second test is her choice of vice president. The conventional wisdom, however insulting to her, is to appoint a straight white man to inspire confidence in voters who don’t want to vote for a woman of color. So, the names of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have surfaced. All would be fine. They are smart and articulate when making a case.
I am surprised that former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is not on the list. I was impressed to watch him eviscerate JD Vance on TV the other night. He is the best political “athlete’’ of that bunch.
Don’t waste your time wondering if Harris should pick a Liz Cheney or a Mitt Romney as a way to unite the country. Won’t happen. There is no way any Democrat would allow any Republican to get a heartbeat away from the presidency and the ability to appoint anti-abortion Supreme Court judges.
Here’s a crazy idea for VP. A guy named Admiral William McRaven. His bio will knock your socks off. He is the former chancellor of the University of Texas and a four-star Navy admiral who ran the military operation that killed Osama Bin Laden. His speech at the University of Texas graduation, in which he urges everyone to start the day by making their bed, will inspire you.
McRaven would insulate Harris from Trump’s phony toughness. He is seared in battle and deeply patriotic. Trump looks small and petty by comparison. Any criticism of McRaven invites the media to immediately remind us of Trump’s lack of military service because of his “bone spurs.’’ Plus – McRaven would be a really good president if anything happened to Harris.
Whoever she chooses, we are about to learn a lot about Kamala Harris. The news will come fast and furious. We are about to find out if she has the political toughness and the imagination to be president.
One thing is for sure: it will be one heck of a campaign.
Author writes the Conflict of Interest blog on Substack.