Join us on WDEV today at 11 AM to talk about taxes, housing and health care insurance costs
by Guy Page
On Common Sense Radio at 11 AM today, your editor will join host Bill Sayre to discuss the chief challenges facing Vermont, and to be considered in the upcoming Legislative Session – property taxes, education cost and quality, housing availability and cost, health care costs and wait times, and the general burden of taxes and regulation. Listen online at www.radiovermont.com or tune in to 96.1 FM or AM 550. Calls are welcome at 802-244-1776.
To prepare Bill and myself for this program, I’ve jotted down a few notes in preparation about property taxes and the rising cost of housing and health care. I share them below….
Property taxes. The House Democrat leadership is promising to keep property taxes below the 5.9% increase projected by the governor in his early December letter. On the surface, that’s encouraging news for property tax payers. But the statement alone raises three big questions.
Question #1: Will the House (led by its yet-to-be-appointed Chair of Appropriations Committee replacing the unseated Diane Lanpher of Vergennes) merely reduce property taxes by increasing taxes elsewhere? That’s what they did this spring to get the 20% statewide property tax down to about 14%.
Question #2: Will the House make significant reductions in education spending? When VDC asked her at a press conference last week, Speaker Jill Krowinski indicated that spending cuts like universal free school meals – an estimated $25 million – are on the table. But as the legendary Cola Hudson (R-Burke) used to say about legislators’ intentions vs. how they actually vote, “there’s many a slip between the cup and the lips, and therein lies the mystery.”
Question #3: Will Krowinski will be the Speaker after the Speaker election on the first day of the Legislature. 18 Democrat House Caucus members last Saturday voted against requiring Democrats in leadership positions. This vote is a ‘soft’ indicator of unrest in the caucus and – perhaps – support for the candidacy of Rep. Laura Sibilia (I-Dover), who Krowinski has refused to meet in a public debate organized by Rep. Jay Hooper.
In a couple weeks, the Commission for the Future of Education will release a report predicted to be short on itemized school spending cuts but waxing eloquent on the theme of education spending reform by turning around Vermont’s housing, health care, and worker shortage crises. It will say there’s no quick-fix, education-specific silver bullet because health care insurance increases, housing and worker shortages are major drivers of ballooning school spending.
Nevertheless, all the major players in the House, Senate, governor’s administration, and local school leadership are singing from the same sheet of music about reducing spending and property taxes. Will taxpayers be applauding at Town Meeting? See reference to Cola Hudson.
Housing shortage. VDC is unaware of any new housing data, except that the state treasurer reports that in 2023 Vermont experienced another year of net migration – the number of people moving into the state subtracting the number of people moving out. NM in Vermont in 2023 was 7,592, more than twice the 2022 figure but just half of the Covid Migration of 2021 (14,458). Vermont Public reported this week that new, relaxed Act 250 requirements are leading to construction of more urban housing, most of it multi-family buildings such as apartment houses.
No doubt the 2025 Legislature will receive updated housing reports and take action (or not).
Healthcare insurance. As reported yesterday by VDC reporter Mike Bielawski, Vermont is likely to see the highest health care insurance premium rate hikes in the country. In an effort to control costs, the Green Mountain Care Board has ordered the UVM Health Network to cut $122 million in spending. The hospital network said those cuts will require closing a mental health center, transitioning dialysis center operations to local hospitals, and other cuts. A GMCB study recommending downsizing some local hospitals and redistributing their services to other facilities has been met with hostility. It’s unlikely those steps will be taken, but the financial unsustainability that prompted them remains.