By Guy Page
Unlike four other New England states, Vermont has failed to recover all of the jobs it lost from the 2020 pandemic-induced recession, according to a July 31 report prepared for the Vermont Emergency Board.
Vermont lost 21% of all non-farm jobs during February – April 2020. Since then, the economy has built back up to 97.9% of all jobs – 2.1% shy of a complete return. Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island have all shot past their 2020 benchmark. Massachusetts has fought back to 97.3%, the Economic and Policy Resources (EPR) report says.
The report also noted that the worker shortage seems to have decreased from 2.5 jobs for every worker in January 2025 to about 1.7 per worker in April.
Iran bombing, Canadian tariffs, AI growth impact on VT economy discussed
EPR principal Tom Kavet also delivered an economic forecast to the state’s Emergency Board on Thursday morning, July 31 at the Vermont State House. Kavet noted that revenue is strong, and that the bombing of Iran registered barely as a “blip” in the natonal and state economic performance.
The state’s top economist also noted the huge potential impact – for good or ill – of the explosion of the AI industry.
“There are huge, huge bets going on” with the build-out of AI. If the AI industry performs well, that’s good, but the debts are high and will come due if the AI economy replicates the bursting of the dot.com bubble, Kavet said.
As for Canadian tariffs – ‘who knows what that’s going to be,” Kavet said. Access to Canadian energy (especially the western part of the state reliant on Canadian natural gas) needs to be watched carefully, an EPR spokesperson said.