By Michael Bielawski
The Green Mountain State is taking in more folks than are leaving, and the rate is accelerating. Another trend is incoming populations are largely from blue states and most outgoing folks are heading to mostly red states.
Vermont State Treasurer Mike Pieciak’s report states, “Net inbound migration increased in 2023 (+7,592) compared to 2022 (+2,981), and in consistent with a general upswing in net in-bound migration since the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Vermont had the third highest population increase via migration in the nation. Only South Carolina and North Dakota experienced greater population increases due to migration.
More deaths than births
Vermont as an elderly population is experiencing a higher rate of deaths compared to births, and the trend is accelerating year over year. The latest data is Vermont is experiencing 1,501 more deaths than births. It was back in 2014 when the state last experienced more births than deaths, with 504 more births.
Blue staters incoming
The report notes that most migration comes from nearby areas in the Northeast, mostly politically ‘blue’ states.
“Most people who moved to Vermont came from other the Northeast. Specifically, the top five states that individuals moved to Vermont from were: Massachusetts (+3,965); New York (+3,279); New Hampshire (+2,781); Connecticut (+1,655) and Pennsylvania (+1,529),” the report states.
In terms of net migration, the states that are sending more folks to Vermont compared to taking out of Vermont, the list changes some. The five states with the highest net migration into Vermont are Massachusetts at +3,965, New York at +3,279, New Hampshire at +2,781, Pennsylvania at +1,035, and Connecticut at +891.
Although New York has a reputation as a ‘blue state’ the latest data indicates that The Empire State is considered more of a ‘purple state’ in 2024.
Leaving for red states
Conversely, those leaving Vermont are largely leaving toward politically ‘red’ states. The report states, “The most popular states for those leaving Vermont were: New York (-3,926); New Hampshire (-1,890); Florida (-1,739); Massachusetts (-1,430); and Illinois (-1,057).”
In terms of net migration, the states seeing more come from Vermont than they are sending are Illinois at -1,057, Utah at -897, Tennessee at -667, New York at -647, and North Carolina at -516.
Health services maxed out?
Over the years Gov. Phil Scott has sounded the alarm that Vermont’s aging demographics are trending in the wrong direction. Speaking to the media he sounded the alarm in November that the state’s healthcare systems are getting overwhelmed.
“These are tough decisions, there’s no doubt about it, but it all goes back again to our demographics,” Scott said in November. “… “These decisions are not going to be palatable for some.”
The Vermont Department of Health has also sounded the alarm.
“Vermont’s older population is our fastest growing age group. By 2030, one in three of us will be over the age of 60,” their report titled “Age Strong Vermont” states.
The initiative seeks to make Vermont a more accessible state for the elderly. It identifies “a wide range of changing needs — such as housing, healthcare, transportation, caregiving, access to healthy food, education and employment.”
The author is a writer for the Vermont Daily Chronicle