by Steve Thurston
The Vermont legislature enacted a law last session (over the governor’s veto) requiring 100% of Vermont’s electricity to come from renewables – mainly wind, solar and batteries – by 2030. If the electric utilities fail to accomplish this requirement the state will collect “noncompliance” fees from the utilities. As I will show, ACT 179 requires something that is impossible to achieve while penalizing the utilities and ultimately their ratepayers for failing to achieve it!
This afternoon as I write this (December 10 at 4 pm) the ISO-NE grid that Vermont is part of is operating with a load of 16,857 megawatts (MW). Solar is contributing zero MW because the sun is setting. Wind power is contributing a paltry 136 MW, or less than 1 % of demand. There are approximately 1400 MW of installed wind capacity in the ISO-NE grid. That equates to about 140 miles of mountain ridges lined with turbines. Together those turbines are generating less than 10% of their rated capacity because there is not much wind.
If there were ten times as many turbines, 14,000 MW, or 1,400 miles of mountain ridges lined with turbines, they would not provide even 10% of the current electricity demand. In fact, if there were one hundred times as many turbines, 140,000 MW or 14,000 miles of turbines, that still would not be enough electricity to power the grid this afternoon.
Let’s get real about unreliable renewables. Sometimes they work and sometimes they do not. You cannot have 100% renewable electricity in Vermont if the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing constantly.
It does not matter how many miles of ridges lined with turbines or square miles of solar panels there are. For 15 hours of the day this time of year solar produces nothing and when winds are calm, as they frequently are on these overcast days, wind turbines produce next to nothing.
For those who say batteries are the answer, Green Mountain Power will sell you a $15,000 Tesla Powerwall battery for your home. In a power outage it will run your heat pump for about 4 hours. Then what? At any rate batteries are an incredibly expensive and illogical way backup wind and solar. Indeed, they must be charged before they can be depleted and that requires wind and solar to be available. This is what is known as Catch 22.
The 100% renewable (or shall we say 100% unreliable?) law must be repealed by the incoming legislature because it requires something that is impossible for the utilities to achieve but slaps ratepayers with “non-compliance” penalties if the utilities do not achieve what the law requires. Could there be a more nefarious law? Well, yes – the Global Warming Solutions Act which encourages anyone to sue the state (meaning the taxpayer) if emissions reductions are not met is another example, foisted upon us by the since decimated super majority Democrat legislature.
As the ISO-NE charts at the end of this article show, the bulk of New England’s electricity comes from low emission natural gas and zero emission nuclear energy both of which are dependable, affordable and plentiful, and offer the long-term benefits of stable energy pricing and energy security.
Rather than relying on expensive and unreliable wind, solar and batteries, Vermont should be planning for a new nuclear power plant at Vernon to replace Vermont Yankee, a 640 MW zero emission nuclear power plant which was decommissioned and demolished well before its expected lifespan due to political interference from the Vermont legislature and then Governor, Peter Shumlin. The transmission lines are still there, waiting for electrons. In fact, building a new nuclear plant in Vermont is only playing catch up – China is currently building 22 nuclear reactors and is planning for 70 more in the next 5 years to add to their fleet of 55.
In addition to Vermont Yankee #2, there needs to be more natural gas pipeline capacity coming to New England from the vast Marcellus Shale formation in Pennsylvania. Natural gas is the lowest priced fossil fuel, produces 40% fewer CO2 emissions than oil per unit of heat, and is cleaner burning.
The New England states desperately need access to more natural gas. Currently more expensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) is being imported in tanker ships from foreign countries to generate our electricity because of limited pipeline capacity, especially in winter when home heating takes priority over electricity generation.
The more energy independent we are the more secure we are. Pennsylvania’s natural gas reserves are some of the largest in the world. Currently much of it is being exported overseas. New England needs a small portion to ensure energy adequacy. State, local and Federal policies must align to solve this problem. The Trump administration has signaled that energy security will be a high priority.
The new legislature and Governor Scott have a newfound opportunity to get Vermont back on track with sound energy policies. The Global Warming Solutions Act, the Clean Heat Standard, and the 100% Renewable Electricity laws are taking us into a cul-de-sac of energy poverty. The U-turn cannot come soon enough. These laws must be repealed.
Here is a pie chart from ISO-NE’s real time webpage showing the generation mix, with renewables providing 5% of total generation:
Here is a chart showing wind’s 10% share of renewable sources:
Author is a retired general contractor and home builder from Ferrisburgh