by Michael Stack
The 2024 Election results are in the books, and the new Trump administration agenda is starting to present itself. That being the case, over this past week Vermont’s congressional delegation dropped into a defensive scrum. What emerged from the huddle, tired “fear bating” rhetoric, projecting a major hit to Children and Seniors from what they labeled “dangerous move towards authoritarianism” by the Trump administration.
Summary up front, that sucking sound that you’re hearing is what little political capital our state (3 electoral college delegates) and its representatives had swirling down the drain. All elections have consequences. Vermont bet big on the wrong horse, and unfortunately the horse that won is keen on loyalty. Vermont’s reputation as a test bed for extreme left leaning social policies, example; taxing unrealized capital gains will seriously handicap its status on the national and hence the local level over the next 4 years.
Yes, the Trump administration recent decision to freeze Federal Funding should be seen as a shot across the bow. Secretary of State Rubio, in a recent Meghan Kelly interview stated that the freeze was about getting recipients attention. Essentially if you cut off their funds they tend to respond, he stated. All Federal programs will be required to “re-justify” their spending to the administration and as was made clear in the run up to the election they do not share the same social agenda that the last administration held.
Job number one, reverse the worst inflation this country has seen in the past 30 years. Inflation a stealth, highly regressive tax was dropped on the middle to lower-income classes by the Biden administration’s economic policies. Polls indicate that was the number one reason many traditional democratic voters abandoned their candidate. Trumps campaign commitment to reverse inflation will be the hammer used to cover many stone-cold political decisions.
While Governor Scott did not see the recent halt to Federal funding, his common sense told him that we need to take a proactive look at spending, specifically where the state depends on funding from the federal government. Many of those Federal dollars that once supported infrastructure, renewable energy and Teacher headcount are going to be eliminated.
Any attempt to download the lost Federal funding onto Vermont’s small tax base will result in an unmitigated disaster. State taxpayers are already straining under the pressure of a significant property tax burden to fund double digit growth in the state’s education fund. We saw a record number of local school budgets fail last year and a very clear message was sent to Montpelier “stop the out-of-control spending”.
Speaking of tired rhetoric, the response from Montpelier so far “we won’t be controlled”, ”we will look to the state’s reserves (that means you taxpayer) to fill the gap”. Guess they missed the memo from the super majority loss. The lack of self-awareness kind of boggles the mind.
Prediction time again.
Last April I predicted a peaking in the political power of the Democratic super majority based upon their belligerent tax and spend attitude.
Stack: When the taxpayer just stops paying – Vermont Daily Chronicle
My current prediction is a double down. Maybe not quite as unconventional and out there as last April’s call. However, if the Democratic party attempts to tax and spend their way through their loss in Montpelier and on the National level they will continue to lose power. I will go as far as to say they could sow the seeds for a previously unimaginable swing to a conservative dominated (financially conservative, socially liberal) state of Vermont.
The author is a If we have learned anything post the pandemic, based upon the hundreds of millions of ESSER dollars dumped, our challenges are not going to be solved by simply throwing money at the problem.
This may be a contrarian viewpoint. If Vermont’s out of control spending continues unabated this will create more problems ahead for all.
Michael Stack is a retired financial industry professional and a former Bellows Falls Union High School Board member.